RADIO
Welcome to May, RotoBallers! A quick note: Be mindful of how the 2018 season as a whole compares to 2017 with regard to HR/FB rates, swinging-strike rates, etc. when you’re analyzing a pitcher’s performance versus last year’s stats.
It’s been an eventful SP week despite only being Wednesday, Nick Kingham is already owned in too many leagues for this column and a few arms have gone down, so let’s get to business. As always, you can find me on Twitter @NMariano53 and ask any follow-up questions or about other pitchers not touched on here.
You know the drill, we're using Yahoo ownership levels and cutting things off around 30%. Here are my starting pitcher waiver wire targets for Week 5.
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Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets
Mike Soroka (ATL, SP) - 27% owned
All Soroka did to win his Major League debut was toss six innings of one-run ball against the Mets. Ho-hum. He struck out five and walked none, which illustrates his likely strikeout limits (he had 125 K’s in 153 ⅔ IP at Double-A in ‘17) and incredible control (he had a sub-2.0 BB/9 throughout the Minors). That said, he showed some improved whiffs this season before the promotion so I won't rule out some growth there. As hyped as I am for Luiz Gohara, Soroka is not to be overlooked and should offer strong ratio relief with the upside for a strikeout per frame. That 95 mph heater with sink was a thing of beauty!
Fernando Romero (MIN, SP) - 30% owned
Romero is the next young arm to be called up for his MLB debut, which comes today (May 2) at home against the Blue Jays. The rookie has had some spotty control to kick off his 2018 season, but the swing-and-miss stuff is real and if he can pound the strike zone then the MLB-level aggressiveness could play in his favor. A mid-90s fastball and upper-80s slider should get him through the early going, but he’ll need to have his changeup working as a third pitch to succeed deep into the game.
Trevor Cahill (OAK, SP) - 9% owned
I was worried about Cahill facing a star-studded Houston lineup, but he actually did well despite allowing four runs (three earned) over six frames. The 30-year-old righty let up four hits and a walk for a WHIP below 1.00 on the day and now has an even 1.00 WHIP on season alongside his 3.00 ERA/3.36 FIP/.3.12 xFIP/3.29 SIERA. Pick any one of those runs-allowed metrics and you’d be happy, no? His 14 percent swinging-strike rate is a top-20 mark for SPs with at least 10 innings, and he’s one of just 28 starters with a K-BB rate of 20 percent or greater. He can make bats miss and when contact is made, it’s usually rather crummy and on the ground. Mix in Oakland’s spacious home park and I think he’s a legitimate top-50 SP.
Side note: I don't know how Lucas Giolito and his league-worst 7.29 SIERA can still sit at 27 percent owned yet these names can't crack double digits. Are there that many autodrafters out there? Dynasty folks holding on harder than Giolito attempting to grip his curveball? Sheesh.
Caleb Smith (MIA, SP/RP) - 9% owned
The Yankee fan in me is upset that Miami is unlocking this guy’s talent, but the bigger fantasy fan in me is thrilled to see him blossoming. Don Mattingly and the Marlins gave Smith one directive: attack the strike zone. As I understand it, Smith didn’t realize just how good he was at missing bats, particular with his four-seamer, and so he would nibble at the edges. This led to elevated walk rates, high pitch counts and reduced effectiveness of his secondary offerings. However, he’s walked just one batter over his last two starts (and allowed only four hits in those 13 innings!) with 19 strikeouts. That slider is pure filth. The Marlins may not get him many wins and I doubt he logs over 160 innings (he threw only 120 in ‘17), but 180-200 K’s are within reach.
Marco Gonzales (SEA, SP) - 9% owned
Gonzales is showing off some impressive command and limiting opposing bats with a 21.3 percent K-BB rate that’s currently nestled in between Luis Severino and Clayton Kershaw in 20th place on the leaderboard. That’s good company! But, and there’s usually a but with these guys, when batters do manage to make contact off of Gonzales it is loud. The 41.2 percent hard-hit rate and 29.8 percent line-drive rate are feeding that problematic .390 BABIP. Another issue is Gonzales’ modest 8.9 percent swinging-strike rate, which doesn’t give with a 25.4 percent K rate. The general rule of thumb is doubling SwStr for Ks, so we could see some regression there as well. The thing is, you still end up with a great pitcher even if he doesn’t fully realize his current 2.74 xFIP/3.09 SIERA.
Kyle Gibson (MIN, SP) - 14% owned
While Gibson’s outing against the Blue Jays on Tuesday could’ve been prettier (5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K), the 30-year-old Twin now has 36 punchouts in 32 innings and continues to limit damage by inducing grounders (49.4 percent on the year, 51.7 percent in his career). We saw this version of Gibson poke its head out last September, and this early 3.38 ERA (3.84 xFIP) with steady whiffs backs the improvement. With already 16 walks, he’s another guy who needs to curb the free passes but you can see the potential coming out.
Tyler Anderson (COL, SP) - 5% owned
Anderson deserves a mention because he’s doing some weird things on the rubber, namely, pitching better at Coors Field. The southpaw looks more comfortable at altitude and has walked only four batters in 12 innings there compared to 11 in 14 ⅓ road innings. The overall 13 percent walk rate is troubling then, but his 13.9 percent swinging-strike rate and resulting 24.4 percent strikeout rate makes him worth monitoring. I’m not going to say only stream him at Coors Field, but that may end up being the verdict down the road.
Matthew Boyd (DET, SP) - 12% owned
Boyd is starting to come up more, so let this be my official waiver-wire blurb about leaving him on the waiver wire. The 21 strikeouts in 29 innings isn’t going to cut it in today’s strikeout-heavy world, and that .238 BABIP and 86.8 percent strand rate are both ripe for regression. We’ve seen spurts of greatness out of him where he defies his peripherals, but he’s a career 5.27 ERA arm with a career 5.01 xFIP. His current 2.48 ERA is backed by a 5.19 xFIP, so I’ll be looking elsewhere. I respect the lower hard-hit and line-drive rates this season, but I see nothing from him that suggests he can continue this.
Domingo German (NYY, RP) - 0% owned
With Jordan Montgomery likely to miss at least one turn in the rotation, if not quite a bit more, German looks to be the one to step into his rotation slot. He's technically a reliever on Yahoo right now, as he came out of the 'pen to relieve the injured JorMont and promptly threw four shutout innings with four K's. He went 7-2 with 81 strikeouts and a 2.83 ERA/1.06 WHIP in 76 1/3 Triple-A innings last season so there's potential here, and anyone who pitches in pinstripes is worthy of fantasy attention. That offense is firing on all cylinders and the bullpen remembered that it's supposed to be good, so I'd throw out a quick bid here and see what happens.
Eric Lauer (SD, SP) - 1% owned
The first four innings of Lauer’s Major League career were rough. After giving up six earned in three innings at Colorado in his debut, he opened his second start by allowing three runs to score in the first in San Francisco. But then he buckled down and didn’t let another runner score, scattering three hits over his next four innings and ending the day with seven strikeouts. I’m not saying he’s suddenly turned a corner, but the 22-year-old rookie won’t live with a .462 BABIP and 51.1 percent strand rate forever. Don’t write him off as a nobody just because we’re spoiled with young phenoms who seemingly skip the “adjustment phase”.
