July 11, 2016

Rotoballer lead columnist Bill Dubiel examines the rankings for first base (1B) at the midway point of the season. These are rankings looking forward to the second half of the season.

Welcome back to RotoBaller's midseason rankings update. We are gathered here today to walk through the first base rankings, analyzing some key names and providing tiers for your consumption. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league when reading.

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2016 Fantasy Baseball Midseason Rankings Analysis: First Base

It's mostly the usual suspects in the first tier--Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion are referred to as superstars for a reason. Goldschmidt actually started off on a low note, hitting only .247 in the month of April, but since June 1st he's been on a tear. The Arizona slugger tallied 20 RBI in June to go along with a .350 batting average, and sure enough he has MVP-type numbers at the break--.300 BA, 53 R, 16 HR, 58 RBI and 11 SB.

Edwin Encarnacion already has 80 RBI, 10 more than the next closest hitter (David Ortiz). It's July 11th. Boy howdy, is it nice having Josh Donaldson hitting in front of you. I can't give the #BringerOfRain all the credit though--Encarnacion's currently sporting his highest K-rate (19.8%) since his rookie year, and he is clearly selling out for power. I dig it, and the folks up north do too, I'm sure. He's third in the AL in homers, and is well on his way to the second 40+ homer season of his career.

Many familiar names in the second tier as well--and by that I mean WHAT IS WIL MYERS DOING HERE?!? The former AL Rookie of the Year had two disappointing and injury-shortened seasons in Tampa Bay and San Diego before finally breaking out as the hitter he was touted to be in 2016. He truly has MVP-caliber numbers, and there is very little to indicate that he can't sustain that level of production aside from the Padres' offense not being any good. His BABIP (.318) is actually lower than his career average (.320) and his K% is the lowest it's ever been in the majors (20.0%). With a .290 BA, 61 R, 19 HR, 60 RBI and 15 steals in the first half, we may be seeing a legitimate superstar emerging before our eyes.

Mark Trumbo has always been a masher, and homer-friendly Camden Yards seems to have (predictably) amplified that ability. The .287 batting average is entirely unexpected, and I suspect some regression is in order there, but I definitely think Trumbo will have at least 50 Trumbombs come September. Why am I so confident? His ISO is .296 right now. That's right--over 345 at bats, his ISO is higher than his batting average. Yowza.

Brandon Belt is well on his way to shattering his career-highs in almost every offensive category. He enters the All Star Break with a .406 OBP, which puts him at fourth in the MLB, behind only Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter and Anthony Rizzo. Belt has been underrated in fantasy circles for quite some time, and I'm glad he's finally busting out in a big way. His .301 batting average is likely not sustainable, but even allowing for some regression (.354 BABIP, although that's not that much higher than his career average) Belt should end up as a .280 hitter with 80 runs scored, 20 big flies and 80+ RBI. Sign me up for the second half.

"What if I told you...that with the 230th overall pick in your fantasy baseball draft, you could get a player who would hit .309 with 38 runs scored, 17 homers and 52 RBI in the first half of the season? ESPN Films presents a 30 for 30 film: Victor Martinez is Still Really Good at Hitting, You Guys." For real though, V-Mart just continues to defy Father Time. He currently has the second-highest ISO number of his career (.212), which means he may have one more 30-homer season in him. I'm betting folding money that he can get there and maintain his .300 BA.

I have to mention Albert Pujols here, because I still remember how he's one of the greatest hitters of the last 20 years. Many others seem to have forgotten, but I still love you, Machine. He's quietly (very quietly, up there in Anaheim) still producing at an above-average level, and while he's not the obnoxiously good all-around hitter he was in his prime, he's still on pace for 30 homers and 110 RBI. He also only has 42 strikeouts on the season--which is pretty darn terrific for a first baseman--and if you play in a points league that counts Ks you certainly have nothing to complain about given his first half.

I'm officially declaring this a breakout season for Justin Bour. That's right, it's Roto Dubs-approved. You certainly can't fight me on it--Bour and his teammate Marcell Ozuna have been the ones bringing the thunder in Miami, not Giancarlo Stanton. Bour is currently on the DL with an ankle injury, but it's mostly precautionary with the All Star Break wedged into the time. He currently has the highest line drive rate of his major league career (19.5%) and his 24.5% HR/FB rate backs up the notion that he has a ton of raw power. Bour's overall numbers are depressed by a very rocky patch earlier in the season, so I don't think he's due for a ton of regression in any category. He's a 30-homer guy who is also capable of a .275 batting average; that's the good sh...stuff.

Midseason First Base Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings

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