RADIO
It was a phenomenal week for this column in Week 5, as I mentioned some optimal DFS contributors like Josh Allen, Gabriel Davis, Dallas Goedert, Tyler Lockett, Alvin Kamara, and Raheem Mostert. Of course, they didn’t magically all end up in the same lineup for me, but it’s always nice to give good advice.
We transition to Week 6, a week featuring just 11 total main-slate games and two games with Vegas totals above 50 (ARI-SEA, BUF-KC). Three of my recommended stacks will be coming from those two games, but there are some low-owned stacks that possess upside that could vault you up the leaderboard if the aforementioned games/stacks “fail”. I highly doubt both of those games will fall flat from a fantasy perspective, though.
**Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back and possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.**
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Josh Allen ($8200) + Stefon Diggs ($8400) OR Gabriel Davis ($6500)
The league’s two pass-happiest teams face off in Kansas City this weekend, with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes meeting for the first time since last season’s 42-36 divisional-round thriller. Pass volume should be plentiful, and that’s exactly what we’re aiming for on DraftKings.
According to Establish The Run’s PROE (pass rate over expectation) metric, Buffalo and Kansas City rank Nos. 1 and 2, respectively. These offenses have combined to average 62.2 PPG through five weeks. The Vegas total sits at 54 currently, but it would be surprising to see this game not surpass 60 points.
Much like last week against Pittsburgh, Buffalo’s aerial attack is poised for another strong outing here; Kansas City is surrendering a 69.3% completion rate, which has only been “bested” by the Packers and Vikings. Along with that, K.C. is tied for the league lead with Tennessee for the most passing touchdowns allowed (12; nfl.com).
Stefon Diggs is tied for third in the NFL with 11 red-zone targets this season. Gabriel Davis displayed his slate-breaking upside last weekend. Now back to full health, he’s a really strong play at his price tag in this projected shootout.
Preferred bring-back: JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5200)
Leverage piece: Dawson Knox ($3400)
Dawson Knox has been dealing with foot/hamstring issues through the early part of the season, and they forced him to miss Week 5. If the 6-foot-4, 254-lb tight end does suit up for this matchup, he’ll be set up for success. The Chiefs are being targeted by tight ends at a top-10 rate, having yielded 38 targets to the position.
Knox is cheap but has upside; in 2021, he posted four games with at least 80 yards or multiple touchdowns. If he does suit up, consider him for your Josh Allen stacks as a cheap salary-saving option.
High-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes ($8600) + Travis Kelce ($8300) AND/OR JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6400)
On FanDuel, we go right back to that BUF-KC game with a Kansas City stack. Patrick Mahomes, even without Tyreek Hill, sits atop the QB TD hierarchy with 15. Now, he did throw four of them to Travis Kelce last week, and that’s fresh on everybody’s mind, but still. This dude is elite.
This week, he draws Buffalo, a respected defense that ranks fourth best in passing yards allowed per game (182.6) and second best in rushing yards allowed (77.8). But there are some players that are just matchup-proof, and Mahomes is certainly one of them. Scoring should be done in bunches in this game, and as a 3-point home underdog here, Mahomes’ passing volume should be sky high.
Travis Kelce is the ageless wonder at this point, as the 33-year-old leads the league in red-zone targets (14) and targets inside the 10-yard line (10; pro-football-reference.com). If Kansas City is going to have success keeping up on the scoreboard, it will start with their trusted tight end.
It’s tough to write up JuJu at this point. The former Steeler has been peppered with targets to start the year (eight targets in 4-of-5 games), but he hasn’t been able to parlay that into anything noteworthy. His expected fantasy PPG (12.0) is 2.9 points above his actual output (9.1), meaning there could be some positive regression on the horizon. With that being said, the eye test would tell you he’s a tough sell to produce any sort of monster fantasy outing.
Preferred bring-back: Gabriel Davis ($6900)
Leverage piece: Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5800)
MVS has been very underwhelming on the outside next to Smith-Schuster, but he at least showed a pulse in Week 5 with his 6/90 stat line. It was the first time all season the speedy Valdes-Scantling returned double-digit fantasy points, but it’s a step in the right direction.
His progression from a deep-ball threat to a possession receiver is evidenced by his decreasing aDOT; in 2022, MVS sports an 11.0-yard aDOT. In each of the previous three years, that mark was at or above 15.8. He has the speed to get behind the defense, and one big catch likely pays the price tag off. Add him to your player pool in an immaculate game environment.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Joe Burrow ($6700) + Ja'Marr Chase ($7700) AND/OR Tyler Boyd ($5100)
Each week, there is always one stack that I gravitate towards more than the others. This stack is certainly the one for me this week, as Joe Burrow and Co. head down to New Orleans for a matchup with the Saints. And let’s not forget: Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are pretty familiar with Louisiana having played together at LSU.
We have yet to see Cincy’s passing game really piece together an extraordinary fantasy outing in 2022, but it’s coming soon, and it might even be this week. New Orleans’ pass defense is allowing just over 211 yards per contest, but that statistic is deceiving for a number of reasons. The biggest reason being, their early-season matchups were relatively weak.
In Weeks 1-3, they matched up with Atlanta, an injury-riddled Buccaneers squad, and the Panthers. All three of those teams are bottom-half aerial attacks as of now. In Week 4, New Orleans was terrorized by Justin Jefferson and his 10/147 stat line. And then in Week 5, both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf got loose for WR4 and WR13 weekly finishes. Moral of the story: New Orleans cannot stop elite receivers, and Chase is just that.
An abdominal injury could also keep star cornerback Marshon Lattimore sidelined for New Orleans, further enhancing Chase’s matchup. Though the lack of healthy playmakers on the Saints’ side could hurt this game’s overall shootout potential (Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, and Chris Olave all appear on the injury report), the domed environment and unimposing pass defense from New Orleans make this a strong spot for Burrow stacks.
Preferred bring-back: Alvin Kamara ($6700)
Leverage piece: Hayden Hurst ($3300)
The pricing algorithm on DraftKings hasn’t caught up with Hayden Hurst’s role in Cincinnati, as his price ranks 13th amongst tight ends for Sunday’s slate. However, the 29-year-old ranks seventh among TEs in routes run (145) and fifth in red-zone targets (six; Player Profiler).
He’s seen at least seven targets in 3-of-5 outings in 2022, so $3300 is quite the bargain at a position that is hard to hit on from week to week. The upside is there with Hurst in this spot.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Tom Brady ($7500) + Mike Evans ($7500) OR Chris Godwin ($6800)
Tampa’s run-heavy approach in Weeks 1-3 can be chalked up to the injury bug taking away many of Tom Brady’s weapons. But as his favorite targets have re-entered the lineup, Brady’s pass attempts have risen; the 45-year-old has doled out 104 pass attempts across the past two weeks, and there is little reason to believe that number doesn’t remain high against Pittsburgh’s soft secondary that was just embarrassed by Josh Allen.
Mike Tomlin’s club enters Week 6 having given up the fourth-most receptions (73), the most yards (1,106), and the most touchdowns to the WR position (nine; pro-football-reference.com). Both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are set up to succeed here, but it’s tough to envision a scenario where both reach their ceiling without the Steelers keeping up on the scoreboard. I would prefer the touchdown machine, Evans, if forced to choose.
Evans’ 13.2 aDOT dwarfs that of Godwin (4.9), and everyone saw what Gabe Davis did downfield against this Steelers coverage unit a week ago. Along with that, the Bucs should find themselves in scoring position early and often -- especially if the Tampa defense is able to overwhelm the youngster, Kenny Pickett. Brady is a great bet to throw three-plus TDs in Week 6.
Preferred bring-back: George Pickens ($5800)
Leverage piece: Leonard Fournette ($8500)
Uncle Lenny has one of the best usage profiles among running backs in the league. He ranks top five in the following categories: receptions (second), expected fantasy points per game (second), targets (third), and snap share (fifth). However, rookie Rachaad White is nipping at the heels of the veteran.
White’s snap share has breached 37% in each of the past two games, and the rookie has garnered eight receptions on nine targets in those contests. Fournette is still a great play in DFS and season-long, but his overall upside could come down a bit if White stays involved in the passing game. Against a PIT defense that has been bludgeoned for 129.2 rushing yards per game, Fournette is still a solid play here.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Geno Smith ($5700) + DK Metcalf ($6800) OR Tyler Lockett ($5600)
One of the bigger surprises of the 2022 season has been the emergence of Geno Smith as a competent real-life and fantasy quarterback. He’s the straw that’s stirring the drink of a Seattle offense that ranks top eight in yards per game and seventh in points per game. Up next for Geno’s club is divisional foe Arizona, who hasn’t stopped anybody through the season’s first month.
The Cardinals have surrendered a top-10 number of catches to the WR position, but weirdly enough, they rank 27th in yards allowed to the position. Playing into Geno’s favor would be Arizona’s inability to get after the passer, as Kliff Kingsbury’s squad has a league-low six sacks. With plenty of time to throw, Geno, Tyler Lockett, and DK Metcalf should carve up this secondary with ease.
Part of the fantasy allure with Seattle this year has been on the opposite side of the ball -- as their defense’s ineptitude has only propelled their games into shootouts. Pete Carroll’s team has surrendered point totals of 27, 27, 45, and 39 over the last four weeks. Arizona’s offense hasn’t lit the world on fire (21.0 PPG), but at least they play fast. And maybe Seattle’s defense is the spark they’ve been needing.
Preferred bring-back: Zach Ertz ($4900)
Leverage piece: Eno Benjamin ($4600)
Cash-game builds this weekend will likely start with Kenneth Walker in the wake of Rashaad Penny’s season-ending injury. And anybody who is a staple in cash games will be highly owned in tournaments as well. Usually a leverage piece in my column is part of the team we’re highlighting (in this case, Seattle). But this recommendation comes from the opposite team.
Eno Benjamin has performed adequately when given opportunities in 2022. His 5.5 yards per touch ranks 13th among RBs. James Conner’s rib injury has cleared the way for Benjamin to receive the bulk of the work for Arizona in a game with a high Vegas total. If Kenneth Walker is chalk, a bet on Benjamin and Arizona somehow controlling this game would provide decent leverage.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Daniel Jones ($6800) + Saquon Barkley ($8800) AND/OR Darius Slayton ($5600), Richie James ($5300)
Can you say vomit stack? This recommendation is not for the faint of heart. However, it’s hard to find a better matchup for a quarterback these days than Baltimore.
John Harbaugh’s defense has yielded the most passing yards, the second-most completions, and is tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed to opposing QBs (three; pro-football-reference.com). Now here’s the fun part: Jones has virtually no one to throw to outside of Saquon Barkley.
Barkley has been making it happen in fantasy through five weeks, and he also leads the team in catches with 18. Stacking Jones with Barkley here makes a ton of sense, as Baltimore’s defense also ranks second worst in catches allowed to the RB position. After Barkley, it’s tough to have confidence in any receivers -- as they’re all replacement-level guys just filling in for the injured starters.
Richie James ranks second on the team in catches behind Barkley, but it’s tough to envision him paying off the $5300 price tag. Darius Slayton is a bit more interesting at $5600, as he’s flashed big games in the past (four 100-yard games in his career) and, as I said before, New York has literally no one to throw to. Slayton could certainly pop here.
Preferred bring-back: Mark Andrews ($7800)
Leverage piece: Nobody (No one is playing this stack.)
Week 5 was solid for this column. Let's hope Week 6 follows suit. Good luck to all of my fellow DFS junkies! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here — @thejacksonkane.
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