Week 2 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. ECR

September 16, 2018

Nick Mariano's Week 2 fantasy football rankings analysis for the 2018 NFL season. ECR comparison for running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks.

Welcome, one and all, to the weekly piece that puts my rankings under the microscope and gives me a chance to explain myself against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) found on FantasyPros. I did decently in Week 1, scoring 29th out of ~130 experts, but if I'm going to beat my 9th place finish from '17 then I've got work to do!

I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, as the overall and flex tabs can simply get insane with every position folded in with the others. I focus on QB, RB, WR, and TE -- feel free to holler if you really want K or DEF notes.

If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough chit-chat, let’s dance.

Week 2 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

I can immediately see that I’m high on Alex Smith (My Rank: 5, ECR: 9), Jimmy Garoppolo (My Rank: 6, ECR: 12) and Tyrod Taylor (My Rank: 12, ECR: 16). I love the rushing floor that comes with Smith and Taylor, and Tyrod’s deficiencies as a passer, such as holding onto the ball forever, are floated by his mobility. Plus, he clearly loves having Jarvis Landry as a safety valve. Meanwhile, Smith gets to pick on an Indianapolis defense as six-point favorites at home. A healthy Jordan Reed makes Washington's world go 'round.

Garoppolo goes from being one of my strongest “stay away” picks in Week 1 against Minnesota to perhaps my strongest riser, as Vegas pegs San Fran to put up nearly 27 points on a toothless Lions defense that was just put to shame on national television by the Jets. If Marquise Goodwin is ready to rock alongside Pierre Garcon, George Kittle, and Dante Pettis, then look out Week 2.

I’m down on Philip Rivers (My Rank: 11, ECR: 6) with the Chargers likely to stomp on Buffalo from beginning to end. I realize that Joe Flacco just put up strong totals against the same Bills and it’s not like I hate Rivers here, but I definitely prefer others like Smith and Jimmy G, who have less stable rushing situations behind them.

Week 2 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

There’s nothing groundbreaking in the higher RB tiers here, though I suppose my ranking James Conner as my No. 4 RB against an ECR of 7 is noteworthy. You can’t argue with his getting 100% of the work in the backfield and the Steelers are a different beast at home. They’re favored by about four in the game that easily has the highest Vegas point total, as it opened at 49.5 and has reached 53 at some books.

Then there’s Javorius Allen, aka Buck, who I have at No. 39 compared to No. 46 by the ECR. No Kenneth Dixon (he’s on the IR now) and an Alex Collins that already fumbled in Week 1 makes Allen a very happy (and involved) boy. I don’t trust Joe Flacco to suddenly be passing left and right, but even if he does then Allen should be his outlet on passing downs. I like his chances to work in more for a TNF game that will see Cincinnati once again without Vontaze Burfict anchoring their LB corps.

I’m about 3-5 slots behind the ECR on Lamar Miller, Carlos Hyde, Royce Freeman, Derrick Henry, and Kerryon Johnson. In simple terms, I think Houston leans on its passing game more with their O-line scrambling to deal with the loss of RT Seantrel Henderson (fractured ankle) and Miller will feel it against a tough TEN front seven.

I think Cleveland against New Orleans screams “Duke Johnson” for Hyde owners. Freeman has to deal with Philip Lindsay now. Derrick Henry looks like the 1B to Dion Lewis, and Kerryon Johnson, while unlikely to deal with LeGarrette Blount’s presence in Week 2, still has to assert himself on a team that may have forgotten how to run the ball (and their defense may be downright awful).

Week 2 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

Let’s keep the good times rolling in WR-ville, as last week saw us boost Robby Anderson, Kenny Stills, Tyler Lockett, and Phillip Dorsett while fading Doug Baldwin, Jamison Crowder, and Sammy Watkins. Woo!

This week has me rather high on Mike Evans (My Rank: 8, ECR: 11) because he looked like a world-beater once again in Week 1 as he torched Marshon Lattimore up and down the field. On the other side of the ball in that game is Nelson Agholor, who’s my No. 19 WR compared to an ECR of 23. The Eagles have Zach Ertz and a stout running game (thanks in large part to that beastly O-line), but their WR corps is clearly lacking without Alshon Jeffery. Agholor is a target magnet and the Bucs secondary is already riddled with injuries, making ol’ Nellie a hot play.

You want deeper? Okay, how about Mohamed Sanu? I’ve got him at No. 47 compared to an ECR of 60. The Sanu canoe played just one fewer snap than Julio Jones (56 for Sanu) while Calvin Ridley entered on 46. Jones was a target fiend in Week 1 with 19 looks, but Sanu’s six were fine compared to Ridley’s two and no other receiver seeing a single glance. Austin Hooper saw just four and is a non-factor to me. Sanu has a five-inch height advantage over Carolina’s slot DB Captain Munnerlyn, so won’t you join me on the water in your own glorious canoe?

My lowlights are Davante Adams (My Rank: 16, ECR: 9) because I don’t want to trust a balky shoulder and a sprained knee for Aaron Rodgers against Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes. I’m also eight slots lower than the ECR on Randall Cobb and seven with Geronimo Allison, so it’s safe to say that I’m off of Green Bay this week. Fading teams facing Minnesota will likely be a year-long tradition.

And despite my love for Tyrod Taylor, I just can’t join the party on Josh Gordon right now. My rank of 39 feels fair rather than the ECR of 26 because I still respect the aforementioned Lattimore and I worry that Taylor may view Landry as his WR1. It’s not like I’m burying Flash here -- he’s still a fine flex play -- but the ECR is creeping him toward low-end WR2 territory and I can’t make that leap with this matchup.

I also can’t trust Will Fuller (My Rank: 69, ECR: 52) even if he does “suit up”, because we’ve not only seen him be active after reported injuries only to stand on the sidelines all game but also it’s way too early in the season to play injured guys. Oh, and I’m still eight spots lower than the ECR on Sammy Watkins because he’s going to have to prove to me that he’s got a place in that offense that’s worth my time. Being fourth in that pecking order will probably mean disappointing efforts in over 50% of his games.

Week 2 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Tight end doesn’t hold anything very interesting, to be honest.

I’ve got Jack Doyle at No. 7 compared to the ECR’s No. 10 ranking, while bringing Kyle Rudolph down to No. 11 from the ECR’s No. 8 rank. Both are still top-12 plays for me, but I trust how Andrew Luck fed Doyle (and Eric Ebron) early and often compared to Rudolph needing a TD to salvage his Week 1 from the pit of misery. Rudolph saw just two targets...two! Even Laquon Treadwell got four!

Oh, and my fading of TB’s TEs continues with both Howard and Brate outside of the top-18 for Week 2. Howard was in for 65% of Tampa’s snaps compared to 36% for Brate, but both saw just two targets. I think Chris Godwin coming on will help this squad become a better real-life attack, though the fantasy appeal may become maddening for those behind Evans.

Week 2 Rankings - Nick Mariano vs. Industry Consensus

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