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What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part two of our Week 12 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the second half of the Week 12 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part one of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Camus (@pfunk00).
Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
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Week 11 Matchup Analysis Recap
Greatest Hits: Dez Bryant (WR, DAL), Rishard Matthews (WR, TEN), Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Dez Bryant had another dominating game, catching six passes for 80 yards with two TD. His chemistry continues to grow with Dak Prescott, which continues to lessen and lessen the chances we see Tony Romo at all this season. Matthews didn't find the end zone, but did have a great fantasy day with nine receptions for 122 yards. He was the highest targeted receiver once again, really stepping out as the WR1 in this offense. Hill led all WR on the team in receiving, with four receptions for 53 yards. He has emerged as the go-to WR in this offense over the past several weeks.
Greatest Misses: Delanie Walker (TE, TEN), Donte Moncrief (WR, IND), Julius Thomas (TE, JAX)
Walker didn't have the big game I expected him to have, mainly because Matthews took all the targets and yards. Walker was held to only four receptions for 36 yards last week, one week after his nine catch 124-yard performance. Moncreif did catch a TD, but his four receptions for 37 yards leaves much to be desired. Thomas put up another dud, catching only three passes for 12 yards in a cake matchup against the Lions. he is a TD dependent TE who has now not passed 30 receiving yards in a game since Week 2.
Jaguars @ Bills - Sunday 11/27 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)
The Bills offense has been successful this season thanks to a strong season by LeSean McCoy. He has been mostly healthy this season, but left last week’s game after halftime against the Bengals with a thumb injury. He had minor surgery on the thumb after the game, but is expected to suit up this week. About McCoy, head coach Rex Ryan said “I think he’ll be ready to handle the majority of the reps.” Jacksonville has been slightly above average at stopping the run this season, but they haven’t faced a RB of his caliber since DeMarco Murray back in Week 8, who ran for 123 yards and a TD. As the centerpiece of the offense, expect a big game from Shady this week.
Allen Robinson (WR, JAX)
Though you could say the Bills secondary took a step forward last week, part of that was because Cincinnati lost their top WR, A.J. Green, on the first drive of the game. Over the past several weeks, this secondary has been beatable by big play WRs. Allen Robinson has been a target machine this season, ranking sixth in the NFL with 101 overall (10.1 per game). Though sometimes his catching ability comes into question, he is still far and away the most talented WR on this roster. If Blake Bortles can get some things going early and get comfortable, Robinson could be in for a big day given the number of looks he will receive.
Matchups We Hate
Chris Ivory (RB, JAX)
Ivory has out-touched T.J. Yeldon in each of the past three weeks, seemingly taking control of that backfield. Where the Bills defense has lacked in the passing game, they have more than made up for at defending the run. The Bills have allowed the 12th fewest rushing yards in the league this season, holding opposing RBs to 3.8 YPC. They have given up the sixth fewest passing yards to RBs this season, which is where Ivory gained 75 of his 114 total yards last week against the Lions. Ivory will once again see the majority of the snaps at RB, but fantasy success will be tough to come by this week.
Notable Players
Sammy Watkins (WR, BUF)
Sammy Watkins is set to make his return to the Bills this week, after missing every game since Week 2 due to a foot injury. Watkins’ return is badly needed, with the lack of depth at WR realy showing for this team. Watkins, Robert Woods, and Marquise Goodwin came into this season as the Bills top three WR, and all have missed time this season due to injury. This week Woods will be out, making Watkins return more important. It would be surprising to see him play more than 50%-to-60% of the snaps due to his lack of in-game conditioning, but down the stretch he could pay huge dividends for fantasy owners.
Marqise Lee (WR, JAX)
Lee finally broke through last week to score his first TD of the season, finishing the day with four receptions for 52 yards. He has out-targeted Allen Hurns over the past three weeks, seemingly taking over the WR2 spot behind Robinson this season. If the Bills spend too much of their efforts working to shut down Robinson, Lee could find some open room to navigate. Though he may draw the coverage of second year CB Ronald Darby, Lee should still be a safe play given his floor of about four catches for 50 yards.
Seahawks @ Buccaneers - Sunday 11/27 @ 4:05 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA)
The Seahawks come in to this matchup having one three straight on the back of Russell Wilson’s second half improvement. When Wilson plays better, so does his WR1 Doug Baldwin. Over the past three weeks, Baldwin is averaging five receptions for 84 yards. In Week 10 against the Patriots he scored on three red zone passes; from six, 18, and 15. Though Baldwin didn’t catch a touchdown pass last week, he did throw a 15-yard TD pass to Wilson. The Buccaneers defense has given up the sixth most fantasy points to the WR position this season, meaning you’ll want Baldwin in your lineups as the fantasy season winds down.
Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA)
A fully healthy Jimmy Graham has come back and wreaked havoc this season for the Seahawks, becoming one of the top fantasy TEs once again. Over the past three weeks he is tied for second on the tam in targets with 17, behind only Baldwin (19). Graham has scored three TD over the past three weeks, and now faces a Buccaneers defense that Travis Kelce just shredded for 108 yards on seven receptions. Expect the good times to keep on rolling for him this week.
Matchups We Hate
Doug Martin (RB, TB)
Not only is this going to be the most difficult test the Buccaneers offense will face the rest of the season with the Seattle defense, Martin hasn’t particularly been all that effective since his return from injury. In two games, Martin has rushed 40 times for 96 yards, which is 2.4 YPC. He had a nice receiving game last week (three receptions for 43 yards), but he should have been able to do more against the Chiefs and Bears defenses. Things will only get more difficult this week; Seattle has given up the 12th fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, holding then to a 3.5 YPC. Martin will need to rely on the receiving game once again if any success is to be had on Sunday.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Another classic love the player, hate the matchup scenario. This week Mike Evans takes on the legion of boom, who have given up the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing WR this season. Only two receivers have eclipsed 100 yards against them this season. Evans has been the most heavily targeted WR in the league this season, averaging 11.9 per game this season. If anyone can have a huge game in a tough matchup it’s Evans, but this is the stiffest test he will face the rest of the season. You play him no matter what if you own him, but keep expectations in check for the stud WR.
Notable Players
Thomas Rawls (RB, SEA)
Rawls appeared in his first game since his leg injury last week, ending the day with 17 total touches. He ran 14 times for 57 yards, adding three receptions for 31 yards. C.J. Prosise started the game, but went down with a shoulder injury leaving the bulk of the work for Rawls. He also ended the game a little banged up, but some general soreness is expected after not playing for so long. Though he may get spelled sometimes by Troymaine Pope, he should see the bulk of the work again this week.
Patriots @ Jets - Sunday 11/27 @ 4:25 PM EST
Matchups We Love
LeGarrette Blount (RB, NE)
Many thought the return of Tom Brady and Dion Lewis would eat into Blount’s production from the beginning of the season, but that hasn’t happened yet. He is fresh off of his fourth 100-yard rushing game of the season, with 124 yards on 19 carries (6.5 YPC) against the 49ers. He broke loose for a 44-yard run on his second carry of the game, which is his longest run of the season. The Jets have given up the 14th most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, putting them around the middle of the pack. However, with the Patriots expected to dominate expect to see a good amount of Blount when it gets to clock-killing time.
Matt Forte (RB, NYJ)
Though things haven’t been looking good for the Jets offense of late, Matt Forte has been looking good over the past four weeks. He has averaged 22 rushes for 93 yards and a TD, including two receptions for 21 yards per game over that span, carrying the offense on his back at times. If the Jets plan on keeping up with the Patriots they will need to feed Forte the ball, including getting him more in the passing game. The opportunity is certainly there for him this week; the Patriots have given up the third most receiving yards to RBs this season.
Matchups We Hate
Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ)
Marshall hasn’t had the season many expected in 2016, with only 601 yards and two scores over 10 games. He is fresh off a four catch, 15-yard performance against the Rams. Ryan Fitzpatrick was unable to play, but even when he has he’s been bad. Bryce Petty started at QB last week, completing 19-of-32 passes for 163 yards with a TD and an INT. Now that Fitz is healthy he will return this week which will help Marshall, but keep expectations low. Top CB Malcolm Butler will likely be with Marshall, and the Pats defense has given up the eighth fewest fantasy points to the WR position this season. Sit Marshall if you have other, more favorable options this week.
Notable Players
Julian Edelman (WR, NE)
Edelman had his best fantasy performance last week since Brady’s return, with eight catches for 77 yards and a TD in the win over the 49ers. Rob Gronkowski did not play last week, and Edelman was the clear benefactor; his 17 targets were as many as he had in the previous two games combined, and led the team by 11. Gronk is on the fence this week as well, and although he is a good play with Gronk in he becomes that much more valuable with him out. Revis island isn’t what is used to be, so even if he gets stuck with him it isn’t a death sentence like it used to be. Even if Edelman gets half as many targets as last game, he will be in for a productive day.
Dion Lewis (RB, NE)
Lewis made his return to action last week, rushing five times for 23 yards and catching three passes for 26 yards. Blount played more than any other RB, but Lewis was on the field nearly as much as James White was (31% for White, 27% for Lewis). Lewis is a more dynamic runner than White is, but Belichek will not let Lewis take the job with how well White has done; he has to earn his playing time. If Lewis takes another bite into White’s playing time he could be a great play this week.
Panthers @ Raiders - Sunday 11/27 @ 4:25 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Amari Cooper (WR, OAK)
Without Josh Norman, the Panthers secondary has taken a major hit this season. What was considered a shutdown unit last season, the Panthers have yielded the ninth most fantasy points to opposing WR this season. Cooper received only five targets last week, but caught four of them for 57 yards and a TD. With 93 targets, he is the undisputed WR1 in this offense. In what is supposed to be one of the highest scoring matchups of the weekend according to the Vegas line, expect Derek Carr to look towards his favorite target early and often.
Kelvin Benjamin (WR, CAR)
Just like the Panthers, the Raiders have been terrible against the pass this season. They have given up the 11th most fantasy points to the WR position, while giving up the fifth most receiving yards. Benjamin has been consistent this season; his 56 yards last week was his lowest total since Week 4 against Atlanta. Before that he had at least 70 receiving yards in five straight weeks. What’s been keeping him from the upper tier of fantasy WR is the fact he hasn’t scored a touchdown since that game against Atlanta. This game gives Benjamin a prime opportunity to break his scoreless streak; I believe this is the week he breaks through against a soft secondary.
Matchups We Hate
Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR)
The Raiders haven’t been anything special against opposing RB this season; they have given up the 12th most fantasy points to the position this season, and were just torn apart by Lamar Miller for 104 yards and a TD on 24 carries. What’s holding Stewart back is his lack of opportunities and production over the past three weeks. Stewart has seen an average 16 touches over that span, but is sporting a 2.4 YPC (46 rushes for 112 yards). A touchdown last week saved his fantasy day, but until he shows he can capitalize on his touches he makes for a risky start. Last week against the Saints was a good matchup, but he gained only 39 total yards.
Latavius Murray (RB, OAK)
As bad as the Panthers have been at defending the pass this season, that’s how good they’ve been at stopping the run. They have allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards this season with only three rushing TD. They have given up the third fewest fantasy points to the position. The Raiders have finally decided to make Murray the primary back, after having three or four RBs see a similar amount of touches. Over the past four weeks, Murray has averaged 18.5 touches per game. He is coming off a tough game against the Texans, where he rushed 12 times for 33 yards. He was able to catch five passes for 59 yards however, his highest receiving total of the season. Against a stout run defense, Murray is in for a long Sunday.
Notable Players
Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK)
After being one of the more consistent fantasy producers for most of the season, Crabtree has put together back-to-back stinkers. He followed up two catch, 27-yard performance against the Broncos with a three catch, five yard performance against the Texans. He is dealing with a minor ankle injury which may be the cause of the poor play, but he is still expected to play this week. A hobbled Crabtree is a tough play, but the matchup this week keeps him as a startable option.
Chiefs @ Broncos - Sunday 11/27 @ 8:30 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Demaryius Thomas (WR, DEN)
Thomas has stepped up over the past five weeks as Trevor Siemian’s favorite target. During that span he has averaged 10 targets per game, and has no less than five receptions in any game. The last game they played before the bye week was his best since Week 4; he caught eight passes for 87 yards and a TD. This week he draws the Chiefs defense, which has given up the eighth most fantasy points to the WR position and the second most receiving yards to the WR position in the league. Even if he draws the coverage of Marcus Peters, Thomas gets enough targets to have a productive game with some of the miraculous catches he has been making.
Spencer Ware (RB, KC)
The Broncos may be dominant against opposing WR, but when it comes to defending the run they have taken a step back this season. They have given up the eighth most fantasy points to the RB position, and the third most rushing yards in the league. Though he isn’t as talented as Jamaal Charles, Ware has done a good job of leading this backfield all season long. He is averaging 109 all-purpose YPG on 17 touches per game. Ware will be able to find some running room while the passing attack is mitigated in this one.
Matchups We Hate
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Hill has emerged as the top WR in the offense while Jeremy Maclin deals with injuries. Hill has seen 18 targets over the past two weeks, catching 14 of them for 142 yards. This isn’t a high volume passing offense as it is, so opportunities will be tough to come by. On top of that, the Bronco’s secondary is the best in the league. They have allowed the least amount of fantasy points to the WR position this season, with a league-low 1,105 yards total. Hill is someone to completely avoid this week, but he should have an easier time next week against the Falcons.
Devontae Booker (RB, DEN)
Booker has been a bit disappointing since he took over the starting role after C.J. Anderson suffered a season ending injury. Booker has rushed for 2.9 YPC over the past three weeks, and has only found the end zone once. The game before the bye week was his best so far; a 24 rush, 76-yard performance against a soft Saints secondary. With the bye now under his belt, Booker returns to face a Chiefs defense giving up the 11th fewest fantasy points to the position. They’ve done a good job shutting down running lanes for Doug Martin and Jonathan Stewart over the past two weeks, and the return of Justin Houston certainly helps them. Booker is going to have a tough time in this one unless the offensive line can crate huge holes for him.
Notable Players
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce leads the Chiefs in targets this season with 67 over 10 games played. He has 49 receptions for 574 yards and three scores this season. Kelce comes into this one after posting his highest yardage total of the season last week, a seven catch, 108-yard performance against the Bucs. Unfortunately, the Bronco’s secondary has been nearly as good against TE as they have against WR. They have given up the seventh fewest points to the position, with only one player eclipsing the 75-yard mark (Hunter Henry, Week 6). Kelce has the talent to make something happen against this defense, but things wont come easy for him.
