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NFL DFS GPP Value Plays for FanDuel, DraftKings (Week 12)


Week 11 brought yet another mixed bag in terms of scoring on the DFS slate. The Top 10 scorers among quarterbacks were filled with names that we are accustomed to seeing as QB2s (Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Darnold, and Derek Carr). While looking at the other skill positions, we had the usual cast of characters sitting among the tops of the leaderboards for the week. We expected good performances from the elite players like Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas and that is what we got. But it was the games from the likes of Tarik Cohen and Randall Cobb that can leave fantasy owners scratching their heads. This made for a very difficult week in lineup construction to cash in DFS. Showing again why it is vitally important to know which deep dives have the best possible matchups to put you in the best position to win.

Heading into Week 12, the slate is leaning more towards being friendly for running back scoring. Sure we have your top QBs with plus matchups like Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. But outside of the top options, the guessing game could become stress-inducing as you build your lineups. Whereas there will be many RBs capable of putting together high-quality performances this week. The further down the board you can go, the less-expensive the player and you should still be able to find options worthy of being placed into your lineups. As for the receivers, it will be the usual cast of characters that will make this week's slate top-heavy. Most of the players you see inside the Top 12 will be set up of good matchups and should be able to take advantage. But the options further down the board could be tough to predict this week, making the deep dive calls this week a bit more tricky.

So what are some of the under the radar plays that can help you cash in this weekend? That is what we look to identify in the Week 12 Sneaky Plays for DFS.

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Quarterback DFS Value Picks for GPPs

Sam Darnold vs. Oakland Raiders ($7,400 FanDuel, $5,800 DraftKings)

Darnold has seen his 2019 season mired with injury and inconsistent play. But coming off of a great four-touchdown game in Week 11, he could be on the verge of turning things around. He should keep the momentum going in Week 12 with a solid matchup against a Raiders Defense that is currently 7th points allowed to the position (21.4 FPPG).

The Raiders give up the sixth-most passing yards per game and with the Jets struggling to run the ball effectively, the offense may certainly go through Darnold this week. He will be a cheap option to utilize this week that should see a decently high own percentage, but will also hold a high ceiling in this game.

 

Running Back DFS Value Picks for GPPs

Derrius Guice vs. Detroit Lions ($5,400 FanDuel, $4,700 DraftKings)

Guice returned to the lineup in Week 11 and it muddied the waters even more in the Redskins backfield. Touches were spread thin between Guice, Adrian Peterson, and Wendell Smallwood. But it was Guice that provided the big play between the three. Perhaps this leads to an increase in work in Week 12 in what should be a matchup that will be easy to take advantage of. The Lions currently allow the most points to the position (25.8 FPPG) while also allowing the most points per opportunity in the league as well. The 17 total touchdowns allowed by the Lions could leave owners licking their chops if Guice were to see an increase in touches here. He will be very cheap and overlooked as an option to slide into your Flex this week.

Kareem Hunt vs. Miami Dolphins ($5,600 FanDuel, $5,600 DraftKings)

Since returning from suspension, Hunt has taken over in the Browns backfield as the primary pass-catching back with 13 catches in the last two games. As he continues to prove himself to teams around the league for 2020, he will be looking to take advantage of a very nice matchup in Week 12. Facing a Dolphins Defense that is near the bottom in points allowed to the position (22.0 FPPG). They have played well as of late, but I expect to see Hunt and the Browns to put this game away fairly early. Leading to more work late for Hunt as they ice the game. Due to the lack of rushing attempts, Hunt will go largely overlooked in DFS but could prove to be a cash-winning play in your Flex spot.

 

Wide Receiver DFS Value Picks for GPPs

Taylor Gabriel vs. New York Giants ($5,600 FanDuel, $4,200 DraftKings)

Gabriel continues to defy logic with his strong play as Mitchell Trubisky's favorite target. Coming off of a 14 target game, Gabriel will look to once again take advantage of a prime matchup against a soft Giants secondary that is next to last in points allowed to the position (27.5 FPPG). With Matt Nagy's mind-numbing play calling, it would not surprise me to see the Bears focus on the passing game in this matchup, leaving more opportunities on the table for Gabriel. He will be a very sneaky option in DFS as a WR3 this week and could go overlooked by owners as they construct their lineups.

Josh Gordon @ Philadelphia Eagles ($5,100 FanDuel, $4,200 DraftKings)

After being with the team for just a few days, Gordon was able to produce a modest two catch game in his first action. Now after the bye week, he will be presented with a matchup against an Eagles secondary that is bottom four in points allowed to opposing receivers (27.0 FPPG). Sure, he is likely to be the third option in the passing game behind an injured Tyler Lockett and rookie D.K. Metcalf. But Gordon has proven before that he does not need a high volume of targets to make an impact. I expect to see the Seahawks struggle to get the ground game going in this one, putting more emphasis on the passing attack and giving more opportunities for Gordon to crack the end-zone. He will be cheap in DFS and also a player that will be virtually unowned, giving you a leg up on other owners if he happens to hit.

 

Tight End DFS Value Picks for GPPs

T.J. Hockenson vs. Washington Redskins ($4,900 FanDuel, $3,400 DraftKings)

Hockenson has been inconsistent, to say the least with his play during the 2019 season. But what better way to turn things around than in a game against a defense that is bottom half in the league in points allowed to opposing tight ends (8.0 FPPG). He may not fill the stat sheets with catches in Week 12, but getting into the end-zone is not out of the question. If he can score, he will far exceed the value that you pay in DFS. He will undoubtedly be low-owned this week and is a perfect boom or bust option.

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