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Way Too Early Dynasty Mock Draft Analysis - Rounds 11-15


It's time to look at the latter half of RotoBaller's Way Too Early Dynasty Mock Draft with a recap of rounds 11-15.

We recently gathered 12 dynasty league experts and RotoBaller writers to conduct a week-long email draft in order to evaluate early ADP values.

To start from the beginning of our recaps, check out the first round analysis. We're breaking down every round in order to give you the best advice on how to approach your early drafts and determine when to target players.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

 

Way Too Early Mock Dynasty Draft Analysis

Note: this mock draft was completed on March 11 via MFL10's email draft system.

Round 11

Four rookies went off the board in the 11th round, including the first two tight ends. O.J. Howard is the most heralded of the rookie crop, but Evan Engram helped himself with an impressive combine and was a slight surprise as the 124th overall pick. A pair of disappointing running backs, Doug Martin and Jeremy Hill, will be bounce back candidates depending on where they wind up next season. Their immediate futures are still unknown, but they are young enough to be difference makers if the right opportunity presents itself. Jameis Winston and Matthew Stafford were available as QB11 and QB12 respectively, showing that there is still tremendous value in the later rounds at the QB position. Josh Gordon is still being drafted, despite missing the last two and a half seasons worth of football. It never hurts to take a lottery ticket in deeper drafts, but this seemed way too early to pull such a move.

Round 12

The deluge of tight end selections was officially underway with five taken in round 12. Veteran Delanie Walker was sandwiched in between a crop of youngsters, finishing with UM rookie David Njoku as the 144th overall pick. The number of wide receivers taken slowed down considerably, but there was still value to be had with deep threats Marvin Jones and Kenny Stills on the board. The uncertainty surrounding his whereabouts for next season caused near-5,000 yard passer Kirk Cousins to slip to the 12th round, while Ben Roethlisberger is now officially a backup quarterback for fantasy purposes as the QB14.

Round 13

Denver seems to have kept their reputation as the premier defense in the league, as they were the first defense to be drafted at #145. Some notable selections in the 13th round include last year's top overall pick Jared Goff and the real Super Bowl MVP, James White. The selection of Danny Woodhead as RB50 was made before news of his signing in Baltimore and the suspension of Kenneth Dixon, making him a potential steal. Rookies Jamaal Williams, Zay Jones, and Curtis Samuel were selected in round 13 as well, although their eventual landing spot in the NFL will affect their ranking later on.

Round 14

The fact that Philip Rivers, who has gone over 4,000 passing yards in four straight seasons and eight of the last nine, was still available in the 14th round continues to reinforce the depth at QB. LeGarrette Blount may have scored 18 touchdowns last season, but he was taken just ahead of career backup Mike Gillislee and after probable late-round draftee James Conner. Justin Tucker was the first kicker off the board at 14.12, which seems way too early, but to be honest that selection was the result of a timed out auto-pick. Still, if there's a kicker to take first, Tucker is the way to go.

Round 15

Three Super Bowl participants were taken in the 15th round: Chris Hogan, Taylor Gabriel, and Mohamed Sanu. The free agent additions Philly made at wide receiver make Carson Wentz an appealing pick this late, especially in a dynasty format. Had this draft been conducted a week or two later, it would have been interesting to see how much higher Wentz might have gone. (Full disclosure: I was deciding between Goff and Wentz the previous round and now totally regret taking Goff. Good thing it was just a mock!) New L.A. Rams receiver Robert Woods made for an intriguing speculative pick to close out the round.

Best Picks

Carson Wentz (QB, PHI) 15.04, 172 overall

A dynasty startup is the best time to take a chance on a top draft pick like Goff or Wentz entering their second year. Not only did Wentz perform admirably in his rookie season, passing for 3,782 yards and a 62.4% completion rate, he did so with a lackluster receiving corps. The additions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith suddenly give the Eagles one of the better sets of pass-catching skill players that includes Zach Ertz at tight end and Darren Sproles at running back. You may not want Wentz as your starter in 2017, but he has one of the highest upsides among all backup QBs.

Martellus Bennett (TE, GB) 14.05, 161 overall

Aside from having one of the biggest mouths in the NFL, Bennett now has the biggest upside among all tight ends. Moving to Green Bay is possibly the only way he could have improved from New England's tight end-friendly offense. Although high expectations made it seem as if Bennett had a disappointing 2016, he finished as the eighth-highest scoring fantasy TE despite competing for targets with Gronk and battling through injuries. Bennett is worthy of top 10 status at his position, so to nab him as the TE18 was a steal.

Danny Woodhead (RB, BAL) 13.07, 151 overall

It's easy to forget about a player who misses his entire season with a torn ACL, but Woodhead should rebound just fine considering he suffered his injury in Week 2. Naturally, health will continue to be a concern since he has missed the majority of time in two of the last three seasons and he is 32 years old. Still, in his last two full seasons, he surpassed 1,000 total yards each time, scored a combined 17 TD, and was a bonafide RB2 in full PPR leagues. The move to Baltimore should bolster his value, unless the Ravens draft another back in the first couple of rounds.

 

Biggest Reaches

Josh Gordon (WR, FA) 11.11, 131 overall

Last year, taking a chance on Gordon seemed reasonable. His year off wasn't due to injury and he was only two years removed from leading the league in receiving. Now he's more of a punchline in fantasy drafts than a realistic option to contribute. When you're 20 rounds deep, there's certainly room to take a chance on a player with his talent level, but taking him before receivers like Marvin Jones or Kenny Stills just doesn't make sense.

Jerick McKinnon (RB, MIN) 12.05, 137 overall

This may sound like a repeat of my analysis of McKinnon from our mock re-draft, so I'll instead remind readers that McKinnon was simply no good last year. Now that Latavius Murray is a Viking, there is little chance for McKinnon to salvage any value. You could argue that RB45 isn't much of a reach, but given the choice between someone who had his chance and failed or a rookie with unknown potential, I'll take the rookie. It doesn't even matter which one.

 

Conclusion

Free agency rolls on and the NFL draft will have a huge effect on where players are drafted as well. Much of this analysis will change between now and the start of the season, but getting a feel for how player values shift is always beneficial to those who take fantasy football seriously.

For those who compete in devy leagues, stay tuned for our fantasy football mock rookie draft to be held shortly after the NFL draft. Nobody keeps you ahead of the game like RotoBaller!




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