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Hayden's fantasy football risers, breakouts, waiver wire sleepers for Week 11 of 2025. Are these unexpected booms legit for Tyler Allgeier, Davis Mills, Jalen Nailor, others?
Week 10 began with a low-scoring snoozefest on Thursday Night Football, but Sunday gave fans a lot more offensive production to feast their eyes on. Out of the 24 teams that played on Sunday, only five failed to reach 20 points. The Lions, Rams, and Seahawks all managed to score over 40 points, thrilling their audiences.
This scoring also resulted in many outstanding performances for fantasy managers. Jonathan Taylor, De'Von Achane, and Jahmyr Gibbs were the day's biggest stars. These three elite RBs combined for 683 total yards and eight total touchdowns. Drake London and Trey McBride also had great outings.
Some strong showings came from less-heralded players, though. Breaking down these performances and determining the outlooks of these players moving forward will be crucial for waiver wire strategizing ahead of Week 11. Thus, let's take a look at five of this week's unexpected boom performances, starting with a running back who balled out in Berlin.
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Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Falcons running back Allgeier started the season with respectable involvement in the team's offense. In Atlanta's first five games. Allgeier reached double-digit carries four times and scored three touchdowns. His touches took a dip over his three games preceding Week 10, though; Allgeier had just 12 touches total from Week 7 through Week 9.
Allgeier rebounded in a big way in Berlin against Indianapolis. He rushed 11 times, giving him his most carries since Week 4. Allgeier also averaged 5.2 yards per carry for 57 yards on the day. Crucially, he scored twice as well, with both touchdowns coming on one-yard runs. However, it was not enough, as the Falcons fell to the Colts 31-25 in overtime.
Allgeier gives the Falcons the lead with 1:44 left!
ATLvsIND on @NFLNetwork
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/wVxuDOwVPf— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
The fourth-year back finished the game with 17.7 half-PPR points, making him Week 10's RB7 ahead of Monday Night Football. He remains the clear backup to star Bijan Robinson, though. Robinson led the Falcons with 17 carries for 84 yards. Allgeier also played just 37 percent of Atlanta's offensive snaps, according to PFF, which is in line with the snap shares he has been posting all season.
Allgeier is worth adding off waivers this week. He has gotten enough carries behind Robinson for him to be playable in a pinch. Moreover, if Robinson ever goes down with an injury, Allgeier's usage, and thus value, will skyrocket. Allgeier will look to keep his momentum going as the Falcons host the Panthers in Week 11.
Davis Mills, QB, Houston Texans
In Week 9 against Denver, Houston QB C.J. Stroud suffered a concussion. Backup Mills stepped in and proceeded to throw for just 137 yards on 30 pass attempts. While the Broncos have done a great job limiting opposing quarterback production this year, expectations for Mills in his first start of the season were understandably low due to the poor showing.
Mills and the Texans went down 29-10 to the Jaguars late in the third quarter on Sunday, but they came storming back to win 36-29. Mills threw two touchdowns and ran for a third; all three scores came in the fourth quarter. He finished the game with 27 completions on 45 attempts for 292 yards, and he also ran three times for 20 yards.
DAVIS FREAKING MILLS EVERYONE!!!!
📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/ZNXGqABTCR
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 9, 2025
Accounting for his one interception, Mills finished the game with 28.68 fantasy points. That was enough to make him the week's shocking QB1 through Sunday. It also set a new career-high for Mills, who had just four games with 20 or more fantasy points across 26 starts before Sunday. The fifth-year passer certainly had a game to remember.
However, Stroud is the top quarterback for Houston, and nothing about this game will change that. Stroud will also likely be back in Week 11 to play at Tennessee. This means Mills should be ignored on waiver wires this week. However, if Stroud is unable to suit up, Mills could be a viable streamer again. Monitor reports regarding Stroud's health as the week progresses.
Jalen Nailor, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Nailor opened the season as Minnesota's WR2 with teammate Jordan Addison suspended for the first three games. Although Nailor had snap shares above 80 percent in all three of those games, he totaled just seven catches on 13 targets during that span. Upon Addison's return, Nailor fell back to WR3 in the pecking order and had five straight games with fewer than five targets.
Nailor broke that streak on Sunday with a career-best performance. He saw six targets and caught five for 124 yards and a touchdown. Half of Nailor's yardage came on a big 62-yard catch and run in the first quarter. That was Minnesota's longest play of the game, though Nailor did score more fantasy points on his 10-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
Jalen Nailor keeps the feet in on 4th down for the touchdown!
BALvsMIN on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/RmG2MmE4lY
— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
With 20.9 half-PPR points, Nailor is tied with Jameson Williams for being Week 10's WR2 entering Monday. He set career-highs in targets and receiving yards, and he matched his previous best reception mark. Although Justin Jefferson (12) and Addison (11) both had more targets than Nailor, Nailor still paced the team's receivers in catches and yards.
Nailor's big day will get him buzz on waiver wires this week, but fantasy managers are best off looking elsewhere. Nothing about Nailor's role has changed, and it is unlikely to change in the near future. His snap share remained below 70 percent as usual, per PFF, and his target numbers can be attributed to the game script in Minnesota's 27-19 loss. Still, Nailor will look to build on this showing in Week 11 versus Chicago.
Tez Johnson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has suffered a slew of injuries at wide receiver this season. Chris Godwin has not played since Week 5 due to a fibula injury, and seventh-round rookie Johnson has seen increased playing time as a result. Mike Evans breaking his collarbone in Week 7 further boosted Johnson's involvement in the offense.
While Johnson saw 15 targets in the two weeks right before Tampa Bay's Week 9 bye, his 20.6 half-PPR points across those two games did not stand out. In Week 10, he did stand out, largely thanks to his two touchdowns. Johnson caught four of his five targets for 42 yards, and he had multiple scores for the first time in his young career.
Baker and Tez bring it back to a one-score game in the final minute
NEvsTB on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/DX7FrSurP7
— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
Johnson scored 18.2 half-PPR points in the contest, his highest total of the season. He ranks as the week's WR8 before Monday. Both Emeka Egbuka and tight end Cade Otton got more targets, catches, and receiving yards than Johnson. Johnson has now scored four times on just 19 catches on the season, though, and he also has posted three consecutive games with five or more targets.
Evans will not return for a while, if he does at all this season. Godwin may return this week, but he has not practiced for a month. If Godwin can't suit up, Johnson will be worth picking up for his Week 11 bout against Buffalo. Be sure to monitor information about Godwin's status early in the week to inform your waiver claims.
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints
Veteran tight end Johnson started the year hot, catching 19 passes on 28 targets over the season's first three weeks. His production died down after that, though. In his six games from Week 4 through Week 9, Johnson averaged 3.3 receptions for 37.2 yards on 4.7 targets per game. He also caught just one touchdown during that span. The Week 5 returns of Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau partially explain why Johnson's numbers dipped.
Johnson had an impactful showing on Sunday against Carolina, however. Although he saw just four targets, Johnson caught all four for 92 yards. A big chunk of his yardage came on a 52-yard play in the first quarter. Johnson also scored a touchdown from 30 yards out in the fourth quarter to give the Saints a 10-point lead.
Tyler Shough to Juwan Johnson to extend the Saints lead!
NOvsCAR on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/JIHgAowlFE
— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
Johnson's quality stat line amounted to 17.2 half-PPR points. This places him as Week 10's tentative TE3 behind just McBride and George Kittle. Johnson's 92 yards marked a new career-high, topping his 90 in Week 17 of 2023. His targets tied for his third-fewest of the season, though, and his snap share dipped down to 50 percent for the first time this year, according to PFF.
Johnson is a fine tight end for fantasy football, and he is worth adding to any roster needing TE help. Receiver Rashid Shaheed was traded to Seattle at the trade deadline, leaving behind several targets to redistribute in the offense. As the new dynamics continue to shake out, Johnson will try to repeat this performance against Atlanta in Week 12 after New Orleans has their bye.
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