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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 7/2/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Tuesday, July 2nd edition of Rotoballer's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Tuesday, July 2nd. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Rosters and MLB Depth Charts for today's slate. Good luck!
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Chicago Cubs (-144) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 9
We have two pitchers taking the mound in this game who struggle in their respective situations. Kyle Hendricks has been terrible away from Wrigley Field, allowing a 5.49 ERA. Joe Musgrove has struggled at home this season, allowing a 4.97 ERA.
The Pirates have seen the total go over in 23 of 37 home games this season, while the Cubs have gone over in 23 of their 40 road games. All signs point to this game going over and I would even be comfortable taking the over at a higher total with these two explosive offenses.
My Pick: Over 9
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds (-110)
O/U: 10.5
I think there is a chance that the total could come close to this number, so I would be more cautious if your book is showing a total below 10.5, but this is high enough where I am willing to take a chance. In all five of Tanner Roark's starts in June, the total came in below 10.5, while Roark hasn't allowed more than four runs in a game yet this season. Chase Anderson hasn't been having the same consistent success, but nine of his 15 starts so far this season have had a total below 10.5.
The teams themselves have identical 16-23-1 over records in their respective home/away splits, and they are both well below .500 on their overall over records. The Brewers have only seen the total go over in 36 of 84 games, while the Reds have gone over in 30 of 82 games.
My Pick: Under 10.5
New York Yankees (-147) @ New York Mets
O/U: 9
We see two teams going in opposite directions for the opening game of the subway series tonight. The Yankees are 9-1 over their last ten games, while the Mets snapped a seven-game losing streak with their win on Sunday night. A worry is that the Yankees may take a while to get back in the swing of things after their trip to London, but the value here against a terrible Mets team is too good to pass up since the line opened at -160.
James Paxton has struggled for the Yankees on the road with a 5.96 ERA and faces Zack Wheeler with his 4.30 ERA. This has all the makings of a high-scoring game with these two high powered offenses. The Yankees have gone over in eight of their last ten games, and 28 of their 37 games on the road. The Mets have gone over or pushed in 54 of their 85 games this season, and in 19 of their 37 home games. If the game needs a couple more runs in the later innings and the Mets are winning have no fear, as the Mets bullpen has a 5.58 ERA and have blown 21 of their 40 save opportunities this season.
My Pick: Over 9, Yankees (-147)
Cleveland Indians (-175) @ Kansas City Royals
O/U: 9
The Indians have won four straight games that Trevor Bauer has started, with Bauer allowing one or fewer runs in three of those four starts. With stats like these, it should be easy for the Indians to get a big lead against Jakob Junis, who has a 5.36 ERA at home.
The Royals rough season has been emphasized by an abysmal 16-25 record at home, while the Indians have won six of their last ten games and have a respectable .500 record on the road. If you want to take the safer route and take the Indians on the money line you can, but I'll aim for the higher value and take them on the run line.
My Pick: Indians -1.5 (-115)
Nate's YTD picks: 46-28-2
