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Fantasy football start em, sit em and lineup advice by Ellis Johnson. Matchup analysis for the Cowboys vs Saints in Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season.
Time to wake up from that food coma. Hopefully, everyone didn’t sleep through another exciting week of NFL football. Finally, the NFL seemed to have a more “normal” week this year and a lot of questions were answered. I think it’s officially safe to say that Seattle and Russell Wilson are not a good team this season, as well as the Chargers and Justin Herbert, and the Cowboys and Dak Prescott. On the other hand, we saw the Colts cement their claim as contenders, while the Patriots, Bengals, and Ravens continue to make statements in the AFC.
Unfortunately, this great week of football came with its share of injuries. These weren’t just any injuries either, these were top fantasy players going down with the injury bug. Just in time for the fantasy playoffs, we saw Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and D’Andre Swift all go down. Thankfully, outside of CMC, it seems that they should all have a quick recovery and we wish them all the best.
This Thursday, we have a rare occurrence of two teams who lost on the previous Thursday. The Cowboys travel to New Orleans after losing a high-scoring overtime game at home to the Raiders while New Orleans is making a QB change with hopes to bounce back after being embarrassed at home by the Buffalo Bills. Welcome back to your RotoBaller Thursday night preview. My name is Ellis, and I thank you all for starting your week with my analysis.
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Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints - 8:20 pm ET
Notable Injuries
- Cedrick Wilson (WR, DAL) - Ankle - Doubtful
- Mark Ingram II (RB, NOS) - Knee - Questionable
- Alvin Kamara (RB, NOS) - Knee - Out
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Taysom Hill (QB, NOS): The legend of Taysom Hill continues. After losing the job to a more, let’s say, traditional QB in Jameis Winston, Hill gets to show off his new lucrative deal in primetime this week. After many believed Hill could not be a full-time NFL QB, he came out last year and was very functional. Not only did he manage to win three of his four starts last season, but he also never scored less than 16 fantasy points. Over these four games, he also averaged 52 rushing yards and passed for 230+ yards in three of the four. Hill has everything it takes to be a top-12 fantasy QB and gets to take on a team that just allowed 36 points to a depleted Raiders offense. Despite losing Darren Waller early in the game, Carr managed nearly 400 total yards. Although the Saints are without some important weapons that Hill was able to play with last year, I think this will only increase the QB's role as a rusher. I don’t usually call these, but I think the *Pie Shop* is open for Hill on the ground this week. I would play him as a low-end QB1 this week and I would do everything I could to acquire his league-winning potential in all leagues.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL): Every time it seems the Cowboys have worked through their struggles, they rewind the tape and play it again. For what seems to be the fourth straight year, the Cowboys are a very disappointing NFL team. This is at no fault of Dak Prescott, though. The young QB has done everything he can to make this offense run smoothly. Unfortunately, he has had to do this without his top two receivers and now potentially his top running back as well. Despite missing these pieces, Prescott threw for 375 yards against a very sturdy Raiders defense. Thankfully, CeeDee Lamb should return this week and Tony Pollard is a more than capable backup. Prescott has the potential to take this offense nuclear, and could easily unleash bombs on the recently torched Saints defense.
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard (RB, DAL): Let’s be honest, this is one of the top RB tandems in the league. These two players complement each other perfectly and both have the ability to break games open with their abilities. Last week, we saw Pollard show off his electric speed, returning a kick for a touchdown. Zeke, on the other hand, has been steady all season and is the RB7. There have been rumors of limiting Zeke’s workload, so if he does play, expectations will be lowered and both players could produce solid RB2 numbers. However, if Pollard has the backfield to himself, he is locked in as a top-10 RB this week. I am not putting too much stock into the matchup because while New Orleans is allowing the third-fewest rushing yards against the season, they have allowed the fourth-most over the last three weeks.
Mark Ingram II (RB, NOS): Last week, Tony Jones Jr. showed us how important Ingram and Kamara are to their team. Recently we found out that Kamara will be unavailable Thursday. Last week, Dallas allowed 143 rushing yards and a score to the uninspiring Raiders rushers. This week, with Hill opening up the run game for the Saints, I expect whoever starts to have a big game. Unfortunately, with that, Hill also may steal a touchdown, but the yards should be there. It appears that Ingram will play and will be a top-15 option without Kamara.
UPDATE: Alvin Kamara has officially been ruled out for this week.
CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper (WR, DAL): It seems to be a trend this Thursday, Lamb is expected to play and Cooper is questionable. However, Cedrick Wilson is not expected to play, opening up even more targets in this offense. Surprisingly, on a points per game basis, Cooper is only the WR21. Plus, if Cooper plays, I expect star corner Marshawn Latimore to be following him around the field. For these reasons, Lamb seems to be a very safe option this week. If Cooper plays, the decrease in targets should be negated by not having Latimore. If Cooper misses, the Latimore effect should be negated by his increase in targets. It’s a win-win for Lamb, and Cooper should manage a fine fantasy day if he does play. If both receivers play, CeeDee Lamb will be a top-12 play and Cooper will be a high-upside WR2.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL): This might be a record, nine players make the “must-start” section this week. Last, but not least, we have the tight end, Schultz. Quietly, Schultz is the TE3 on the season behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Just to be clear, that is above Darren Waller, who is fourth. Although it may be assumed that Schultz is the product of a high-powered offense, he only has four touchdowns on the season. He also is seventh in targets, sixth in receptions, and sixth in yards at the position. What this means is that his usage and production are legitimate and should not be overlooked. Although Schultz would benefit from the absence of Cooper and Wilson, he is still a TE1 option if Cooper plays.
Solid Options for Fantasy Football Lineups
Michael Gallup (WR, DAL): Last week, Gallup came through with five catches for over 100 yards. As one of the best third receivers in the league, Gallup will look to take advantage again if Cooper is to miss the game and Latimore is dealing with Lamb. It was reassuring to see Prescott look his way as much as he did last week, especially after missing the majority of the season with an injury. If Cooper misses this week, Gallup should be a low-end WR2/high-end WR3. If Cooper is back, Gallup becomes more of a WR3 but can still produce in deeper fantasy leagues.
Flex Considerations for Fantasy Football Lineups
Tony Jones Jr. (RB, NOS): To be clear, Jones Jr. makes this section if Ingram and Kamara are both out. Unfortunately, this is a result of the disappointing game Jones had in Week 12. Even without Kamara and Ingram, Jones Jr. was miserable for fantasy. If he finds himself alone in the backfield again, he can be looked at as a volume flex play. However, if Ingram starts, he should be a last-resort flex play at most.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, & Deonte Harris (NOS, WR): Despite leading the team in targets over the last few weeks, even Smith is a “sit” this week. Primarily these three players are in this section as a direct result of the QB change. Although we saw Hill throw for 230 yards in three of his four starts last year, we do not know which receiver he will prefer this season. There is a path for one of these players to be fantasy relevant as we saw Hill hyper-target Michael Thomas last season and support solid fantasy numbers. If you want to take your shot at who that WR will be, I would personally rank them Smith, Harris, and Callaway. However, I think the highest upside is with Harris as he has the big-play ability that Smith lacks. If you want to shoot your shot, go for it. I have to warn you though, you can’t win your week on Thursday, but you can lose it.
Of the six picks we made last week, we managed to come out 4-2, hitting all three spread picks and only one Over/Under call. This week, we have a very interesting matchup with two underperforming teams. I believe both sides of the ball hold more offensive power than the current Over/Under line and it’s clear that Dallas is stronger in this regard. As a result, here are my picks.
Ellis’ Picks: Cowboys -4.5 (10-4), Over 46.5 (10-4)
Career record: Spread (19-13), Over/Under (19-13)
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