Thursday Night Football Starts & Sits: Bucs vs Eagles

October 14, 2021

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1) vs Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) Thursday Night game in Week 6. Ellis analyzes the TNF matchups with a detailed breakdown.

I feel like we all need a quick breather after Week 5. Last week had monster fantasy games, devastating injuries, and dramatic finishes. And the best part, there’s no time to take a breather as we have a huge Thursday Night game this week.

Last week, we had eight running backs rush for 100+ yards, 12 wide receivers with 100+ yards, and 11 quarterbacks passing for 300+ yards. That’s a fantastic week for fantasy. Unfortunately, it came with its share of injuries as we now find Mr. Unlimited himself (Russell Wilson) out for a while, along with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Saquon Barkley, and potentially Daniel Jones to name a few. I wish all players a speedy recovery and look forward to seeing them back on the field when healthy.

For the second time this year, I get to break down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Thursday Night Preview. This matchup showcases two top-six fantasy QBs this season. On one side of the ball, we have the Buccaneers who are giving up the most passing yards per game. On the other, we have an Eagles team that is 30th against the run. I hope you haven’t undone your seatbelts from last week, cause we are full steam ahead onto another fantasy freeway. So without further ado, your RotoBaller Thursday Night Preview.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles

8:20 pm EST 

Notable Injuries

• Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB) - Ribs - Out
• Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI) - COVID - Doubtful
• Lavonte David (LB, TB) - Ankle - Out
• Jason Pierre-Paul (LB, TB) - Shoulder - Questionable
• Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, TB) - Concussion - Out
• Lane Johnson (T, PHI) - Personal - Out

Must-Starts

Tom Brady (QB, TB): Currently sitting as the best QB in fantasy through five weeks, Brady is an easy “Must Start.” In three of his five games, he has passed for 4+ touchdowns. He is also currently leading the league in passing yards (1767) and sitting one touchdown behind Patrick Mahomes for the league lead in passing touchdowns. Brady is the GOAT, and now he has three of the league’s best receivers to throw to. Although the Eagles have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game, Brady is always good for a couple of touchdowns and should have another productive fantasy week.

Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI): I believe the jury is still out on whether Hurts is a good NFL QB or not. However, he has proved his value in fantasy formats as he is currently the QB6 on the season. Despite having an awful football performance in week five, he still managed to be a top-10 fantasy QB on the week and lead his team to victory. Lots of this was on the back of his rushing ability, as he averages 51 rushing yards a game this year. In Week Six, we get to see him take on the worst secondary in the league for passing yards allowed. If the Eagles want to have a shot at winning this game, it will have to be through the young quarterback. I expect Hurts to not only air the ball out, but also lead the team in rushing yards. He’s an easy start in all formats.

Chris Godwin, Mike Evans (WR, TB): With Brady setting the world on fire in the passing game, it’s not a surprise to see two receivers in this section. With the absence of Rob Gronkowski, it appears that all three receivers have been able to pick up the slack and be consistent fantasy producers. Of the two my favorite is Mike Evans who leads the team in receiving yards and touchdowns. Last week, despite having the most targets of the three, Chris Godwin was the only one who did not catch a touchdown. As a result, he is my second favorite, and his consistent targets and yards make him a “Must-Start.” Both should be viewed as high-end WR-two’s this week.

Leonard Fournette (RB, TB): I’ll admit, going into the season I was not expecting Fournette to take over the backfield, however, that’s exactly what he has done. Playing over 60% of snaps in three of five games, Fournette is clearly the leader of this committee. It’s not often that I put an RB in a committee as a must-start, however, I think this is a prime matchup for Fournette. The Eagles are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game, and the Bucs are substantial favorites in the matchup. Together, this is a great recipe for a Fournette fantasy day. I would view him as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3. 

Solid Options

Antonio Brown (WR, TB): I know the other two wideouts made it into the “Must Starts” but I am slightly concerned for Brown this week. In week five he exploded for 124 yards and two scores, however, he has had two games over 20 fantasy points, and two games below 10 fantasy points. I like Brady in this matchup, but the Eagles have not allowed a lot of passing yards. As a result, I fear that one of these three receivers may have a down week for fantasy. You still should start all three, but if I were to put my money on who may be left out in this game I’d put it on Brown.

DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI): Smith is having a very productive rookie campaign. Leading the team in both receptions and receiving yards, Smith is Hurts’ go-to receiver. Through five weeks he is dominating targets with 46% of the WR targets and a 23% overall target share. What’s holding Smith at the WR33 on the season is the team’s low passing volume and distribution of touchdowns. The Eagle’s seven passing touchdowns have been distributed across five players. In this game, Hurts should be airing the ball out and hyper-targeting his top WR. Smith should have a fine fantasy day and is a threat to find pay dirt. I would start him as a top-30 option with WR-two upside.

Flex Considerations

Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PHI): There are four guarantees in life: death, taxes, 85 will always be open, and you can’t run on the Buccaneers. So why do I have Gainwell as a flex play? It’s definitely risky, but I think Gainwell will have a good game this week. The Eagles are targeting the running back position at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, with backs taking 24.7% of the team’s targets. Of this, Gainwell has led the backfield in targets and is the only back to find the endzone. I think he will see a lot of playing time this week as I am projecting the Eagles to be trailing for most of the game. In any PPR format, he has the potential for a good fantasy week. To add to his upside, I’m calling for the Pie Shop* to be open for the rookie this week as well. 

*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.

Zach Ertz (TE, PHI): If Goedert misses this game, Ertz is a fine play this week. This season, Goedert is the TE10 despite Ertz having six more targets than him. This is a tight end by committee, which is as gross as it sounds for fantasy. With Goedert on the COVID list, Ertz should see the full workload. Plus, the Buccaneers are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. 

Consider Sitting

Miles Sanders (RB, PHI): What a disappointing season it has been for Sanders. After getting the hype train moving in his rookie season, the train has had many stops on its way to fantasy relevance. Fortunately, when Sanders has had the ball he has looked like his old self but unfortunately for fantasy, the team is just not giving him many opportunities. Plus, with a rushing QB like Hurts who vultures goal-line carries, it’s hard to make a case for Sander’s success in a tough matchup. 

Ronald Jones II and Giovani Bernard (RB, TB): Jones is currently the RB64 on the season. In normal 12-team formats that’s a rock-solid RB-six. With Fournette leading the backfield and Brady airing out the ball, there is not enough opportunity to share between Jones and Bernard. They may be DFS dart throws due to the high-powered offense and good matchup, but neither can be relied on in fantasy leagues.

Going into Week 6, our picks are cruising along at 3-2 against the spread and 5-0 on the over/under. After getting both rights last week, I’m hoping to carry the momentum into this next matchup. Unfortunately, this matchup has a lot of variables. The most concerning variable, in my opinion, is that the last time we saw Hurts in primetime, the Eagles got steamrolled by the Cowboys in Week 3. As much as I would like to have optimism in Hurts against this exploitable secondary, the Buccaneers should win this game in their typical high-scoring fashion. As a result, I’m going to be pretty chalk with these picks. Thanks again for starting your week with my analysis and good luck!

Ellis’ Picks: Buccaneers -6.5 (3-2), Over 51.5 (5-0)

Career record: Spread (12-11), Over/Under (14-9)

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