The Most Overvalued Fantasy Football Player from Every AFC Team (2024)

September 2, 2024

Ellis Johnson selects overvalued fantasy football players on each AFC team for 2024. These players have climbed draft boards, yet gamers should pump the brakes.

It’s finally football season. With the calendar flipping over to September, we are mere days away from the NFL kickoff.

Now that the majority of drafts are behind us, we still need to evaluate each fantasy position. Heading into the season, we have seen many players skyrocket in value.

Even with these adjustments, the question remains: is the increased value justified? In this article, I am selecting one overvalued player from each AFC team. These are players who I believe have had their hype get a little too out of control.

AFC North

Chase Brown (RB, CIN)

If you’ve been following my work over the last few months, I still believe Zack Moss will be this team’s early down back. Even still, Chase Brown, the RB out of London, Ontario, had an amazing training camp.

Right from the start of camp, Brown received praise for his pass-catching and explosive ability. However, when he had his preseason start, he missed a few gaps and was impatient waiting for his blocks to form. 

This Bengals team is projected to be among the best in the league and will likely be leading more often than not. If that is the case, I think Moss will be the one to put away games. As a result, I think Brown is a boom-or-bust play, with weekly flex appeal at best.

Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)

This has nothing to do with Zay Flowers as a player. Flowers was a dynamic playmaker in his rookie season with the ball in his hands. He also had a very respectable season, finishing as the WR30 in half-PPR.

At a glance, that’s impressive. However, that was with Mark Andrews missing seven games and their lead running back being injured in Week 1. Now that Derrick Henry has entered the mix, the limited passing volume may decrease even further. Plus, Andrews is healthy and Rashod Bateman was getting some praise from camp.

Although Bateman is most likely nothing, I find it hard to see Flowers topping last season’s stats with Andrews and Henry in the mix.

Justin Fields (QB, PIT)

Russell Wilson has officially been named the starter, yet Feilds is still being drafted in most leagues. I get it, his upside for fantasy is massive. However, the NFL has made it very clear how they value Fields.

This offseason, Fields was traded for a 2025 sixth-round pick. That is less than Kenny Pickett and Trey Lance were traded for. He also started his preseason with two botched snaps and a few flash plays. If he manages to start a game this season, his rushing makes him worth a spot start. However, I would be surprised if he ever strings together multiple starts in the NFL without injury to the starter.

Justin Fields misses a wide open TD even though this guy jumped off a trampoline to try & get it pic.twitter.com/4nIKQPZlOX

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 18, 2024

Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)

Chubb’s injury last season was truly devastating. The veteran back was in consideration for the best pure rusher in the league and dominating defenses. Now, coming off of his second major knee injury (on the same leg), his future is in question.

Chubb is already starting the season on the PUP, missing at least the first four games. He will then likely slowly return to his usual touches, however, who knows how he will look. These injuries are near impossible to come back from, even for the incredible athletes. I wish Chubb the best, but I can't draft him above backs like Devin Singletary, Tyjae Spears, and Jaylen Warren.

AFC East

Keon Coleman (WR, BUF)

As soon as Coleman was drafted by the Bills and had his first interview, the fantasy community fell in love. The Florida State product has an incredible personality and walked into the perfect role after the departure of Stefon Diggs.

Unfortunately, Coleman was touted to be an NFL project rather than an immediate starter. With his athletic attributes and contested catch ability, Coleman has the potential to be a really good WR. However, as we saw in the preseason, he is currently lacking the finesse needed to consistently beat NFL corners. 

As a result, I would rather select other upside rookies who are going after him like Brian Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)

It’s so weird that this Dolphins offense can be the "bee's knees", yet Tua is anything but the "cat’s pajamas." Seriously, with all the high-powered skill players and offensive genius Mike McDaniel, you think Tua would be better for fantasy.

However, even with Tyreek Hill being on pace for 2,000 yards for most of last year, Tua finished as the QB11 overall, and QB21 in points per game. Running this offense will provide some massive weeks, but I’d rather take shots at QBs with more consistency, such as Jared Goff.

New York Jets

Surprisingly, I don’t think any of the Jets players are overvalued. Even with Breece Hall being drafted as the RB2 and Garrett Wilson as the WR7, it’s hard to argue against those values. Even Aaron Rodgers being drafted around QBs like Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, and Geno Smith makes sense. This includes taking a shot on Tyler Conklin late in drafts. Ultimately, I would draft these four Jets and avoid the rest.

Breece Hall 🤝 snow game

🔥36 Carries
🔥174 Yards
🔥Touchdown
pic.twitter.com/PX4qGNaFR5

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) January 7, 2024

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)

Stevenson has become one of the few workhorses in the league. I’ll be honest, I was very down on him when he was drafted and sitting behind Damien Harris. However, his hard-nosed running and solid pass-catching have made him sneaky for fantasy.

This season, the Patriots are fighting for the wooden spoon (last place). This team is most likely going to be a dumpster fire and playing from behind more often than not. In the past, Stevenson has gobbled up these targets, however, the team brought in former WR-turned-RB Antonio Gibson to help their RB depth. This addition, paired with the abysmal Patriots' offense, makes it hard to draft Stevenson over backs like Najee Harris and David Montgomery.

AFC South

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)

Pittman had an excellent breakout season. Even with Gardner Minshew under center for most of the year, Pittman managed to finish as the WR15. However, he did this primarily off of target volume, only scoring four touchdowns on the season.

My concern is how important the volume was last year. Pittman finished with the fourth-most receptions at the position and only had four fewer receptions than the rest of the Colts WRs combined. 

With Anthony Richardson under center, along with the addition of second-round WR Adonai Mitchell (who has looked great in camp), it’s hard to see Pittman repeat last season’s volume. Plus, Josh Downs was also getting heavily targeted in training camp. 

Currently, Richardson’s over/under for passing touchdowns is set at 17.5. As a result, if there is a decrease in target volume and a limited number of touchdowns to go around, it’s hard to see Pittman cracking the top 20 again.

Christian Kirk (WR, JAX)

At the start of the offseason, I was all over drafting Christian Kirk. This was partly because I viewed Brian Thomas Jr. to be more of a project player, which he has proven wrong in camp. It was also because I remember how underrated Kirk was going into last season when he was coming off of a WR12 finish.

After looking further into his numbers from last season, I think there are multiple reasons to be concerned about his current WR32 ADP. As mentioned, first-round selection Brian Thomas Jr. poses the most obvious threat to his production. However, the addition of Gabe Davis and the emergence of Evan Engram’s usage in this offense last season doesn’t help.

If last year he only managed to finish as the WR34 in points per game, it’s hard to see a path where Kirk outproduces that in 2024.

Christian Kirk #Jaguars pic.twitter.com/7TMzktJ3Kl

— Zach Goodall (@zach_goodall) August 3, 2024

C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)

Firstly, this is not a negative against Stroud. I know he has loyal fantasy followers and I do not want to start the season on their bad side. However, it’s hard for pocket-passing QBs to crack the top five at the position.

Currently, Stroud’s ADP is the QB5. Considering his outstanding rookie season only placed him as the QB9, this seems a little aggressive. He did miss two games last season, however, only one other QB had fewer rushing yards and finished ahead of him -- Jared Goff.

Stroud could take a step forward and easily come through for fantasy. Especially with the addition of Stefon Diggs, there certainly is a path. My issue is that there are multiple QBs that you can get later with similar passing touchdown upside (for example Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott). As a result, I’d rather wait a couple of rounds and select one of them, or shoot for the upside of an Anthony Richardson instead of taking Stroud.

Tony Pollard & Tyjae Spears (RB, TEN)

The fact that I have two names listed at the same position for this one, tells you where I’m going with this.

For what may be the first time in NFL history, a head coach is taking the approach of not showing his hand based on personnel packages with two separate backs. Typically, this results in one back being a “bell cow”, however, Brian Callahan has two backs that replicate the Spiderman meme.

If there were any doubts about how the usage of these two “co-starters” was divided, it was cleared up in the preseason. Both backs were alternated between drives and even within the same drive. 

Considering that the Titans are currently projected to score the sixth-fewest points per game in 2024, a true 50-50 split backfield could be devastating for fantasy. It will be nearly impossible to predict which back will find the endzone each week, and if there will be enough points scored for either back to have a successful week. As a result, I have both backs outside of my top 30 positional ranks.

AFC West

Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)

This offseason was going perfectly for the 2022 seventh-round selection. Not only did Jerick McKinnon leave and give his jersey number to rookie Xavier Worthy, but the team only brought in first-round bust Clyde Edwards-Helaire to compete.

Suddenly, the preseason hit and undrafted free agent Carson Steele started to make splashes. Still, Pacheco was holding down the lead role. Then the Chiefs brought in Samaje Perine, who has made a career with his pass-catching chops and pass-protection prowess. The final straw for me, was Josh Jacobs going on a podcast and saying the Chiefs offered him a lot of money, which he rejected because he did not want to stay in the division.

Although very narrative-driven, that’s a lot of pieces that could impact Pacheco’s workload. Earlier in the offseason, when he was going around Travis Etienne, that seemed like fair value. However, now Pacheco is being selected right behind Kyren Williams and Derrick Henry. Those are two backs who have shown us 20+ fantasy points per game season. Even on an offense like the Chiefs, I believe there are too many weapons for Pacheco to have a season with that kind of production.

Samaje Perine is the perfect type of just good enough RB to muck up a backfield projection but not push for starter reps.

Discussed his possible fit with KC in a section of tomorrow's pod with @SalVetriDFS that ultimately didn't make it off the cutting room floor. pic.twitter.com/6YNvXTBUAr

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 29, 2024

J.K. Dobbins (RB, LAC)

I really hope this season works out for J.K. Dobbins. However, I’ll be rooting for him from afar. No matter how many times he tells me how great he is feeling, I can’t quite get the confidence to draft him.

It is unheard of for an RB to return to his previous form off of an Achilles' tear. The closest case study we have is D’Onta Foreman, who finally looked half decent after being multiple years removed from his injury. The other recent case is Cam Akers, who has not impressed so far.

Dobbins isn’t only coming off of an Achilles' tear, but also a multiple ligament tear in his knee on the same leg in 2021. That alone is the reason I avoid him in drafts. Combine that with a timeshare backfield, and I will risk the chance he breaks out for someone else’s team, rather than take the chance myself.

Zamir White (RB, LVR)

I promise I don’t think all RBs in this division are overrated. However, White is arguably the most overrated of the three I've outlined. 

All offseason White has been labeled as the “stereotypical dead zone RB” and this year’s Alexander Mattison. Although it’s hard to argue with the first title, the second one isn’t the most accurate. Specifically because last year Mattison was the unquestioned lead back for the Vikings, whereas White has shared preseason starting work with Dylan Laube, and ironically, Mattison.

Even if White is the main back, he will be rarely used in the passing game. Considering this team is not projected to be good, he may get gamescripted out of touches most weeks. As a result, I am taking my shots elsewhere with higher-upside backs such as Zack Moss or Rico Dowdle.

Bo Nix (QB, DEN)

Hats off to Bo Nix for lighting up the preseason and increasing his fantasy value. Now a big round of applause for all the dynasty managers who used the hype to “sell high” before the season starts.

This year more than most, preseason seemed to be a lot closer to college football than NFL football. In either case, Nix showed up. However, I am weary of his ability to produce fantasy. Yes, he is more mobile than most think. However, he does not push the ball downfield and will rely on a steady running game to succeed.

Personally, I see a lot of Mac Jones (before he fell off a cliff) in Nix. He may become a decent NFL QB, however, that will likely only result in fantasy finishes around QB18-24. Although respectable, you don’t win your league by starting the equivalent of the fantasy bare minimum at QB.

Thank you for checking out my work!

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