The Fantasy Football Pie Shop - Week Three (2023)

September 21, 2023

The term “Pie Shop” is an Australian term used to determine whether or not a player will score a touchdown. Ellis applies this to the NFL and predicts five players who will find the end zone in Week 3 of the NFL season.

It’s Week Three of the Pie Shop and so far it has been a very tasty success. Thanks to all of you who have kept up with the series and to those of you who are reading it for the first time. 

For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week. 

Last week, three of six picks were correct, making our two-week record five correct calls and six misses. This week, we have a fully stocked Pie Shop, with plenty of picks and some left-field selections. It’s truly touchdown or bust for the Pie Shop. My name is Ellis Johnson, and here are my Week Three Pie Shop selections.

Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)

Chargers @ Vikings, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

For those of you who watched his Week 2 performance vs. the Eagles, you probably want nothing to do with Mattison. After appearing to be not himself and unable to hold onto the ball, Mattison had arguably his worst game as a starter. Now the team has swapped 2026 picks with the L.A. Rams for Cam Akers. I don't believe this changes Mattison being the lead guy, especially for this week.

After last week, Mattison shared on social media that people messaged him with racial slurs and threatened him and his family. I would like to take a second to apologize to Mattison for having to deal with that. We play fantasy football for fun, and it wouldn’t be possible without these players giving it their all each week and putting their bodies on the line. We, as a fantasy community, need to be grateful and respectful of these individuals who we idolize and cheer for each week. Not only do I think that Mattison and the team are extra motivated for a bounce-back performance, but this matchup is a juicy one.

We’re talking about two 0-2 teams that have both suffered close losses to tough opponents. Last week, the Chargers allowed 128 rushing yards to opposing running backs and a rushing touchdown. Mattison has been the clear leader of this rushing attack and accounted for eight of the team's nine rushing attempts in Week 2. I don't believe Akers will be a factor after only being traded late on Wednesday. These offenses should be cooking (or in this case baking), with plenty of pies to go around. With this usage and a high over-under, Mattison is primed for his second Pie Shop of the season.

Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU)

Texans @ Jaguars, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

Pierce might be having one of the most disappointing starts to the 2023 season. Not only has this offense continued to look shaky, but Devin Singletary, Dare Ogunbowale, and even Andrew Beck took touches from him last week. Thankfully, he is facing a Jaguars team that just allowed Isiah Pacheco to rush for 70 yards on 5.8/yards per carry. I think this game might be closer than people expect, and this Texans team will look to their ground game early and often.

Although the split in touches scares me, I think Pierce will be relied on heavily in this game. Plus, last year, 25% of his rushing touchdowns came in his one game against the Jaguars. Yes, he only had four rushing touchdowns on the season, but it sounds good to phrase it as a percentage. I’m calling for him to open the Pie Shop for the first time this season, and the sixth time in his career.

Nice play by the Texans. Dameon Pierce with the blitz pickup. CJ Stroud with the accurate throw on time. And a Robert Woods appearance.

Looking way better than last week. pic.twitter.com/FEy7Uvndib

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) August 19, 2023

Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)

Colts @ Ravens, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

I’ll be honest, I wasn’t convinced Flowers could be a consistent play for fantasy. Through two weeks, boy am I wrong. He is electric with the ball in his hands and the Ravens love to give him the ball. So far this season, Flowers is leading this team in targets (15), which is seven more than the next highest.

He now faces a Colts secondary that was projected to have the 31st-ranked secondary going into the season. So far that ranking has been justified, as they just allowed Robert Woods, Tank Dell, and Nico Collins to each have over 70 yards (Collins had 146 and a score). If this team continues to be committed to giving Flowers the ball, it’s only a matter of time until he finds the endzone. The floral Pie Shop is open this week for the rookie receiver in a plus matchup.

The Lamar-Zay connection is just beginning 😈@Lj_era8 @ZayFlowers pic.twitter.com/CQK54UEGAI

— NFL (@NFL) September 18, 2023

Josh Jacobs (RB, LVR)

Steelers @ Raiders, Sunday 5:20 pm PST

While the entire world slandered Najee Harris for his inefficiency last week in primetime, Jacobs' nine carries for negative two yards went relatively unnoticed. This Sunday night, we get the treat of seeing both of these backs rumbling down the field.

After missing my Najee Harris call last week, I'm trying to make up for it with a bounce-back game from Josh Jacobs. Since leading fantasy managers to championships in 2022, Jacobs has been very disappointing this season. Over his two games, he has 28 carries for 46 yards (1.64 yards per carry). Thankfully, we saw him have five receptions for 51 yards last week.

This Sunday night he faces a Steelers team that is allowing 193 rushing yards per game, which is the most in the league. Last week, we saw Nick Chubb tearing this defense apart before his devastating injury (wishing his family the best and a full recovery for him). When Jerome Ford stepped in, he was also able to find success, ripping off a 70-yard, cut-back run.

Sunday night's Week 3 game may not be the best, but it's always fun to root for the Pie Shop. I'm calling Josh Jacobs to start getting back on track for fantasy in a very plus matchup at home. That's right, the Pie Shop is open for a veteran back who is still looking for a long-term contract.

A.J. Brown (WR, PHI)

Eagles @ Buccaneers, Monday 4:15 pm PST

Usually, I avoid picking superstars in this column, however, there are two superstars that I think will score their first touchdown of the season this week. A.J. Brown’s production has been overshadowed by a huge start of the season for DeVonta Smith and the resurrection of D’Andre Swift last week.

We also saw that despite leading by 20 points at the time, Brown and Jalen Hurts exchanged some choice words on the sideline. It’s not uncommon for best friends to argue, but best friends always try to fix their issues. If Brown was unhappy with his usage in Week 2, you can bet he’ll be getting fed this week.

These soaring Eagles take on a Buccaneers team that has been a pleasant surprise on offense. Baker Mayfield and company have gotten this team to a 2-0 record heading into this very tough matchup. Although this team slowed down Justin Fields' passing game (which isn’t saying a lot), Kirk Cousins went off for 344 and two touchdowns in Week 1. Since the Buccanneers are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards this season, Hurts might be forced to air it out all game. I think these two best friends will find a way to open their own Pie Shop in Week 3.

Puka Nacua (WR, LAR)

Rams @ Bengals, Monday 5:15 pm PST

Winning the lottery, going perfect on my Pie Shop Calls, and Justin Fields being a superstar are all things I would have thought to be more likely than this Pie Shop call. Obviously, none of those three came to fruition, and yet, here I am debating between Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams to open the Pie Shop in Week 3.

Puka Nacua is not only an amazing story, but he has been an amazing talent through his first two games in the NFL. The fifth-round selection has stepped in for Cooper Kupp (something that many thought was impossible) and proceeded to gobble up receptions and yards.

Despite having 35 targets, 25 receptions, and 266 yards, the BYU prospect has yet to find the endzone. On Monday, he faces a Bengals team that has yet to find their groove. The Bengals' secondary has been decent, however, they are far from the 49ers' defense (which he just torched last week). 

Especially if Joe Burrow plays, this game has "shoot-out" written all over it. The Bengals are entering must-win territory with an offense that has yet to showcase their potential. Meanwhile, the Rams played the 49ers tough and managed a road upset in Week 1 against the Seahawks. They’ll look to continue their success, and Nacua will open his first career Pie Shop in Cincinnati, Ohio on Monday.

Insane route running on display by Puka Nacua. Absolutely destroyed the defense. Targets are EARNED, not given folks. Come on. #elite pic.twitter.com/ERpe9bu5qK

— K Ivy (@Ivyman_FF) September 18, 2023

Ja’Marr Chase (WR, CIN)

Rams @ Bengals, Monday 5:15 pm PST

I mentioned before that I usually avoid picking superstars for the Pie Shop. Having said that, here is my second superstar who has been held scoreless through two weeks. Chase has been relatively quiet in his first two outings, which appears to have a lot to do with Joe Burrow not looking fully healthy.

As someone who has watched both Bengals games closely (yes, I am a Bengals fan), Chase’s usage has mostly been short passes that rely on him making a defender or two miss. This style should be maintained regardless of who is under center, but hopefully, we see a deep shot or two against a Rams team that didn’t allow a passing TD last week. This game is looking like a must-win game for a Super Bowl-contending Bengals team, and Chase has the talent to put the team on his back and take control of this game. 

We might not know if Joe Burrow will suit up Monday for this game, but it’s about time Chase had one of his explosive performances. Whether it’s Burrow or Jake Browning under center, I think Chase reopens one of the most successful Pie Shops in the league.

“We gotta take more deep shots down the field. That’s why we have deep-threat guys.” - Ja'Marr Chase pic.twitter.com/VCntct5R6m

— Faux Joey Brrr (@FauxJeaux) September 19, 2023

Thanks again for reading the Pie Shop. I will be back next week with some more touchdown predictions and tasty treats!

(Record: 5-6)

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