Week 1 Touchdowns Scored Predictions - The Fantasy Football Pie Shop (2023)

September 5, 2023

The term “Pie Shop” is an Australian term used to determine whether or not a player will score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). Ellis applies this to the NFL and predicts five players who will find the end zone in Week One.

Who doesn’t love pies? Meat pie, shepherd’s pie, apple pie, banana cream pie — it’s hard to find a pie that’s not delicious. Much like a pecan pie, you’re probably thinking I’m nuts. But before you say I’m out to lunch, let me tell you how a Pie Shop is very relevant to Fantasy Football.

I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, a touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.

Touchdowns are often considered to be the most unpredictable statistical trend to follow in football. As a result, betting on players to score a touchdown is almost always a plus-money prop. Having said that, there are situational factors that can be examined to help determine the probability of touchdown scorers. These factors increase in reliability as the season goes on. My name is Ellis Johnson, and welcome to the Fantasy Football Pie Shop.

David Montgomery (RB, DET)

Lions @ Chiefs - Thursday 5:20pm PST

To open this article I had to start with a player in the season opener. Last season, the Lions were elite at finding rushing touchdowns, averaging 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game. Although this team has moved on from Jamaal Williams, the addition of David Montgomery and the continuity at the offensive line should set up for another successful season on the ground. 

This game has by far the highest over/under of Week One at 54.5 points. We know the Chiefs are always good for their scoring totals, and the Lions will need to find a way to slow them down with a strong ground game and an abundance of touchdowns. As a result, I think this will be more of a Montgomery game than a Jahmyr Gibbs game, so I’m calling for the Pie Shop to be open for the veteran back.

Jahan Dotson (WR, WAS)

Cardinals @ Commanders - Sunday 10:00am PST

A name that has become a mainstay on any offseason “breakout” column will start the season sizzling. It’s wild that a Sam Howell-led Commanders’ team is opening the season as seven-point home favorites against the Cardinals. That tells you a lot about what we should expect from this Cardinals team.

In 2022, the Cardinals allowed the second most passing touchdowns per game and this defense has gotten worse over the offseason. This is the perfect matchup for a breakout player who has proven to be a touchdown threat every week. 

Despite only playing 12 weeks, Jahan Dotson led the team in receiving touchdowns with seven. Currently, Terry McLaurin is dealing with turf toe, and may not suit up for Week 1. If he does play, it’s likely McLaurin wouldn’t be 100%, making Dotson the clear top option. I’m not a big math guy, but the matchup and the offseason buzz add up to a high probability that Dotson will open the Pie Shop to start the season.

Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)

Panthers @ Falcons - Sunday 10:00am PST

I’m calling this one purely because I think the entire world (including his coaches) will want it to happen. The matchup is an interesting one, as this division is really up in the air. Considering the Panthers’ offensive line was getting shredded in the preseason, I could see the veteran Falcons playing with a lead.

The Panthers were also slightly below average in rushing touchdowns allowed last season. They allowed one rushing touchdown per game, which was 11th-worst in the league. Meanwhile, the Falcons averaged one rushing touchdown per game and the second-highest percentage of rushing plays.

Bijan Robinson is going to be a fantasy superstar, and I think he will get the workload to explode onto the scene instantly. I believe this will be the first week of many where Robinson opens one of the most successful Pie Shops in the league.

Mike Williams (WR, LAC)

Dolphins @ Chargers - Sunday 12:25pm PST

If you have followed my work this season, you won’t be surprised that a Chargers pass catcher finds his way into my opening article of this series. I am expecting a nuclear season for Justin Herbert, which will extend to his receiving options.

Mike Williams has seemingly been forgotten about in most fantasy leagues since the Chargers drafted Quentin Johnston in the first round. Based on the preseason, Johnston should not be a threat to Williams (at least for the start of the season). Over the last three years, when Williams has played over 60% of snaps he has averaged 0.7 touchdowns per game. 

Additionally, last season the Dolphins tied for the second most passing touchdowns allowed per game. This team did bring in Jalen Ramsey. However, he is currently injured, as well as most of their depth running backs. This game is primed for a shootout, and the pies should be plentiful.

Darren Waller (TE, NYG)

Cowboys @ Giants - Sunday 4:20pm PST

I have very much bought into this Giants passing offense. Say what you will about Daniel Jones as a passer, but this offense is built perfectly for what he does well. Jones has thrived on short-range throws over the middle and the occasional deep shot. Combine this with the camp hype of Darren Waller and I think we will see this connection on full display in Week 1.

What scares me is that we know the Cowboys defense is very good. Micah Parsons and company allowed 1.4 passing touchdowns per game while on the road last year. Interestingly, the Cowboys allowed the third most fantasy points to the tight end position last season.

I think it’s likely Jones will have at least one passing touchdown to start the season. Based on the defense strengths (pass rush and corner), I think Waller has a very high chance of being the recipient of a Jones passing touchdown. 

This is definitely my most risky selection of this article, and the odds should reflect that if you choose to place a wager. As the saying goes, sometimes you have to risk it for the biscuit (or in this case, the Pie).

Thanks for reading my work. Join the journey and follow me on X @YoitsEllis_FF. 

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