The Fantasy Football Pie Shop, Week 5 (2023)

October 5, 2023

The term “Pie Shop” is an Australian term used to determine whether or not a player will score a touchdown. Ellis applies this to the NFL and predicts six players who will find the end zone in Week 5 of the 2023 fantasy football season.

All successful businesses need to constantly reflect on how they can make their company better. Thankfully, Pie Shops are not different. After starting the year hot, I am forced to reconsider my approach to snap this cold streak. 

For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week. 

This week, we are switching up the format. Instead of providing six selections that are uncommon touchdown calls, I will be dividing them into three categories. I will have two picks I view to be locked in, two picks that I have decent confidence in, and two deeper selections. I will then keep track of my success rate within each section. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week 5 Pie Shop.

Pie Shop Locks

Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)

Texans @ Falcons, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

Every game this season there has been at least one play that leaves you thinking “Bijan is generational." In Week 1 it was his touchdown reception, in Week 2 it was his triple jump cut, and last week we saw what might have been the best one-on-one play I’ve seen, where he leaves the Jaguars defending grabbing air.

This week he faces a Texans defense that just rejuvenated Najee Harris. This team is also allowing a league-high 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game. If quarterback Desmond Ridder doesn’t make something happen against this defense, there’s a good chance we’ll see Taylor Heinicke in Week 6. Plus, C.J. Stroud has been balling out, potentially forcing this offense to move.

Each week we have seen Robinson’s role increase and this week is the perfect matchup for a run first, run second, run third, punt, Falcons offense. I am very confident Robinson will find his way into the endzone and may even have his first career multi-touchdown game.

Davante Adams (WR, LVR)

Packers @ Raiders, Monday 5:20 PM PST

For the first time since switching teams, Adams faces the team that drafted him in 2014. That sentence alone makes me think that the best red-zone receiver will find his endzone this week.

Thankfully, there are statistics that support that statement. Adams has three touchdowns in four games and should have had one last week if the Raiders had challenged the play. He also has 33 targets in his last two games and will have Jimmy Garoppolo back under center this week.

It’s wheels up for Adams in Week 5, and the Pie Shop will be open in Vegas.

Promising Picks

James Conner (RB, ARI)

Bengals @ Cardinals, Sunday 1:05 PM PST

This Cardinals team has been the pleasant surprise of the year. Not only are Joshua Dobbs and James Conner two of the nicest players to cheer for, but this team plays with a lot of heart. They now get to face a floundering Bengals team that is in shambles heading into Week 5.

So far this season, Conner is tied with Bijan Robinson for the third most rushing yards at the position. He now faces a Bengals team that is allowing the second most rushing yards per game (only behind the Broncos, thanks to the Dolphins).

This Cardinals defense has also had its struggles, setting the Bengals offense in a decent spot for a “get-right” game. Since Conner is this team’s every-down back, regardless of game script, he will be used frequently. The prolific touchdown scorer should open the Pie Shop for the third time this season.

David Montgomery (RB, DET)

Panthers @ Lions, 10:00 AM PST

Montgomery is fresh off a hat trick and the clear leader of this team’s run game. Sorry Jahmyr Gibbs managers, Montgomery is the more valuable fantasy back. 

The Panthers have been in rough shape all season both offensively and on defense. Specifically, they have not been able to stop the run. Last week, two of the league’s most inefficient backs (Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers) finished with 5.6 and 8.0 yards per carry on 22 combined attempts.

This is a smash selection and frankly could have easily been one of my “lock” picks. My only concern is that touchdown regression might hit at some point, but this matchup has Pie written all over it.

Taking Shots

DeAndre Hopkins (WR, TEN)

Titans @ Colts, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

If you are thinking “What is a star like Hopkins doing down here?” let me tell you about his play so far. Besides not looking like the dominant WR from a few years ago, his production on this offense has been consistent but rough.

Through four games he has fewer than 50 yards twice and failed to top 65 yards in the other two. Thankfully, he has found himself a decent target share, averaging 7.75 targets per game. This team doesn’t like to throw the ball, but when they do, Hopkins is the only consistent option.

The Colts are allowing the fifth most passing yards per game and the second-most yards to the WR position. If there is ever a time for Hopkins to open the Pie Shop, this week should be it.

Miles Sanders (RB, CAR)

Panthers @ Lions, 10:00 AM PST

We already called for the Pie Shop to be open for the RB on the other side of the ball, now it’s time to double up.

Miles Sanders has had a very disappointing season so far. In fact, this entire Panthers team has been very underwhelming. Thankfully, Sanders is continuing to have workhorse usage and is a week removed from his groin strain. He is second in the league in targets to the position and sixth in receptions.

This week, he faces a Lions defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to the position and fourth-most receiving yards to the position. In a game where the Panthers will likely be playing from behind, and Sanders’ usage in the passing game, it’s a great opportunity to open the Pie Shop either on the ground or through the air. 

Thanks again for reading the Pie Shop. I will be back next week with some more touchdown predictions and tasty treats!

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