RADIO
What do you know? Last week this article could’ve essentially been called the Green Bay Packer Edition with a focus on Jordan Love, Aaron Jones, and Christian Watson. This week they’ll be passing the torch - hope Love doesn’t underthrow it - to the Seattle Seahawks.
Working the waiver wire is the most underappreciated part of fantasy football. Quite honestly, it’s got an argument for being the most important part of your fantasy football success. Certainly dominating the first few rounds of your draft is vital, but after that, making good waiver claims a week or two early and avoiding bad cuts are crucial.
Deciding who to cut can always be a difficult process, but it's important to take emotions out of the equation. Below you'll find the biggest names that managers can safely cut in traditional 10 and 12-team leagues. You will also find players that you should hold if possible. If you have any questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message. My DMs are always open and I’m more than willing to answer questions.
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Quarterbacks to Cut in Week 10?
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks - 75% Rostered
Smith has absolutely, without a doubt, got to go. He has scored under 15 fantasy points in each of his last five games. He has scored in the single digits more often than he has scored over 15 points. He has just one game over 16 points, but one game under three. He has more multi-turnover games (four) than he does multi-touchdown games (three). Through eight games, he has nine turnovers. He has four games with under 220 passing yards and has just two games with more than 10 rushing yards.
Geno Smith this season
First 4 games: 1 turnover
Last 4 games: 8 turnovers— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) November 6, 2023
Despite having Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Smith has not been able to capitalize on a special 2022 season, which is beginning to look more and more like a one-hit-wonder kind of season. If fantasy managers are still holding Smith, he can be safely dropped. There are plenty of other signal-callers available who are playing much better than he is.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers – 55% Rostered
I’m not going to let one okay game against the Rams, who were without their starting quarterback, Matthew Stafford, change my opinion on Love. He was a cut last week. He remains one this week. Between Weeks 1 and 8, the Rams' defense has allowed the 22nd most total yards and total points this season. Their pass defense had allowed the 13th most passing yards and third most passing touchdowns. For fantasy purposes, they’ve given up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Love was in a smash spot. An absolute smash spot. Instead, Matt LaFleur operated - smartly - with a huge emphasis on the running game. Love ended up with just 26 attempts compared to 34 rush attempts for the team. He was efficient, completing 20 passes for 228 yards and one touchdown en route to 13.8 measly fantasy points. This broke a five-game turnover streak that started back in Week 3. During that stretch, he had just one game with more than 15.5 points. Getting Aaron Jones will undoubtedly help, but we just saw the recipe the Packers will want to use offensively. I’d rather roster Derek Carr and Russell Wilson.
Running Backs to Cut in Week 10?
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans - 85% Rostered
There’s an argument to be made that Pierce could have made the list last week, or the week before that, or even the week before that. Pierce has been dreadful. However, with the state of the running back position, it’s hard to drop someone who is still getting 10 to 12 touches a game. However, I’m there. I am well aware Pierce didn’t play this past weekend, but that just added more fuel to this decision.
While we’ve seen a split backfield between Pierce and Singletary for most of the year, this past weekend with Pierce out, Singletary put up just 3.6 half-PPR points. The argument for Pierce was always, “Well, if we’re all going to roster handcuffs (which we all do), why not roster a guy getting touches right now, but whose role could expand if his 1B counterpart (Singletary) gets hurt?” Well, we saw what that looked like this past weekend when the 1A got hurt and I have no interest in it.
Least Efficient Players in Fantasy (2023)
[PPR vs. XFP] @FantasyPtsData1 RB Alexander Mattison (-37.6)
2 RB Dameon Pierce (-36.5)
3 WR Chris Olave (-31.3)
4 RB Josh Jacobs (-27.6)
5 WR Tony Pollard (-26.4)
6 WR Odell Beckham Jr. (-25.9)
7 WR Elijah Moore (-25.8)
8 WR Davante…— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 6, 2023
Not only that, but Pierce has the Titans in Weeks 15 and 17, during the fantasy playoffs. They’ve been very tough on opposing running backs and are often viewed as a pass-funnel defense. He’s basically unusable during the playoffs and that’s a major blow to his rest of season value. He has just one game with more than 10 half-PPR points where he did not score a touchdown. This makes him extremely touchdown-dependent. Even in the one game that he did score, he finished with just 13.4 half-PPR points. He’s scored fewer than six points in four out of seven games. Done!
Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers - 73% Rostered
Sanders made this list last week, but he makes it again this week as one of the biggest-name running backs who should be cut by the thousands. He played just 18 of the team’s 72 snaps this past week. He played just six of the team’s 67 snaps the week before. This isn’t even a split backfield! Chuba Hubbard is the clear workhorse and Sanders is nothing more than a change-of-pace backup.
#Panthers Week 9 RB Usage
- Chuba Hubbard: 65% snaps, 16 carries, 24 routes, 6 targets (67 yards)
- Miles Sanders: 25% snaps, 6 carries, 10 routes, 5 targets (61 yards)— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 6, 2023
Hubbard ran more routes than Sanders (30 to 11), had more targets (six to five), and had almost three times as many carries (16 to six). Sanders has just one game scoring double-digit points in half-PPR scoring and it required a touchdown. He’s averaging just 6.3 half-PPR PPG. It’s hard to even get excited about his handcuff contingency value because we saw that earlier in the year. He averaged 17.25 touches per game through the first four weeks and still generated just 8.8 half-PPR PPG. Considering he lost his job in that role before, it’s hard to imagine the team giving it back to him in full, even if Hubbard gets hurt.
Other Running Backs to Cut: Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots - 44% Rostered, Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens - 37% Rostered, Emari Demercado, Arizona Cardinals - 33% Rostered, Dalvin Cook, New York Jets - 31% Rostered, Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs - 30% Rostered, Royce Freeman, Los Angeles Rams - 26% Rostered, Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins - 26% Rostered, Samaje Perine, Denver Broncos - 21% Rostered, Keaontay Ingram, Arizona Cardinals - 17% Rostered
Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 10?
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers - 88% Rostered
Done. I’m sure some of you might be thinking “Well, who am I supposed to cut him for?!” Look, I don’t know who is available in all of your leagues. I just know Watson is a completely cuttable player for someone who is more often than not available. Elijah Moore? Give me him over Watson. Demario Douglas? Yeah, I’ll take him too. Quentin Johnston? Give me the rookie. I’m done with Watson.
Over his last three games, Watson has failed to score more than five half-PPR points in any contest. During this stretch, he’s averaging just five targets a game. That’s a 17-game pace of just 85. That kind of volume with terrible quarterback play isn’t worth rostering. In five games this season, Watson has gone over 40 yards in just one of them. He has yet to record a single game in 2023 with more than three receptions.
Christian Watson has been below 40 receiving yards in 4/5 games this year, has cleared 5 receptions in a game only ONCE in his 19-game NFL career, & has NEVER seen more than 8 targets in an NFL game.
It’s time to accept him for what he is:
A Role Player.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) November 5, 2023
Dating back to last season, Watson has played in 13 games where he’s logged at least a 45% snap share or more. He’s had 50 or more yards in just four of them, with just one this season. He has recorded four or more receptions in only six out of 13, with zero coming this year. With the Packers committing to their running game as much as the scoreboard allows them to, Watson will be an extremely hit-or-miss player.
K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings - 51% Rostered
Since Justin Jefferson went on IR, Osborn has scored 6.8, 7.2, and 13.9 half-PPR points in three contests from Weeks 6 to 8. He left this past weekend early due to a concussion. Those aren't bad numbers, but they're not very good either. Jefferson is eligible to come back in Week 10 and now Kirk Cousins is out for the season with a torn Achilles.
Even if Jefferson takes his time coming back, Osborn was averaging just 9.3 half-PPR points per game with Cousins. While the trade for Joshua Dobbs is likely enough to keep the fantasy value afloat for Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, no quarterback can support four fantasy-relevant pass-catchers. In reality, most quarterbacks, even the superstar ones, struggle to support three. Think of Joe Burrow with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Who is excited to roster Boyd? And that’s with Burrow! Osborn can be safely dropped.
Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys - 46% Rostered
I was high on Cooks coming into the 2023 season. He had been an excellent player in New Orleans, then New England, then Los Angeles, and then Houston. In all four places, Cooks hit the ground running and was immediately productive. He struggled in 2022, but he struggled with his own injuries, and Davis Mills was just as bad as Zach Wilson was last season. Going to the pass-happy Dallas offense with a quality quarterback and a hole at the No. 2 receiver position gave Cooks a clear path to a bounce-back season.
Early in the season, I gave Cooks a pass. He struggled with a knee sprain and the Cowboys played just two games in the first seven that were decided by less than 20 points. I pounded the table for Cooks as a viable WR3 this past weekend in what was a picture-perfect matchup. The Eagles had been giving up 38.4 half-PPR points to opposing receivers this season. That’s the highest mark in the league. The fifth team is giving up 7.6 fewer points than that. You combine the plus matchup with a high-scoring matchup and there were plenty of reasons to be optimistic. The Cowboys ended up losing 28-23. Plenty of points.
Dak Prescott completed 29 of 44 passes for 374 yards and three touchdowns. Plenty of volume and production to go around! Cooks had just two targets, one reception, and seven yards. In seven games this year, he has just one with more than five targets and zero with more than 50 receiving yards. He’s been held to less than five half-PPR points in five games.
Other Wide Receivers to Cut: Tutu Atwell, Los Angeles Rams - 32% Rostered, Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions - 28% Rostered, Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs - 22% Rostered, Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs - 20% Rostered, Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants - 20% Rostered
Tight Ends to Cut in Week 10?
Darren Waller, New York Giants - 78% Rostered
I typically try to refrain from listing injured players here. No one needs to be told that Nick Chubb or Mike Williams can be dropped. Waller’s situation is a bit different since it’s possible he will return after a four-game IR stint. I’m not optimistic he will return in four games. Not with the way the Giants’ game is going. Even if he does return, does it matter?
The Giants just lost Daniel Jones to a torn ACL. Head coach Brian Daboll said he didn’t know if Tyrod Taylor would return this year due to his rib injury. The Giants might be starting Tommy Devito, an undrafted rookie, for the rest of the year. He played four years at Syracuse with his sophomore season being the lone year he started more than five games. His 2022 season was spent at Illinois where he threw for 2,650 yards and 15 touchdowns in 13 starts. This offense is going to be a dumpster fire. To be fair, it was already with Jones and/or Taylor. You might be thinking, can it truly get any worse? It can always get worse and it’s going to.
Other Tight Ends to Cut: Tyler Higbee, Los Angles Rams - 48% Rostered
On The Hot Seat
RB Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts - 86% Rostered
It was only a matter of time before what happened this past weekend finally happened. Moss was completely and entirely replaced by Jonathan Taylor. Moss had a great stretch, but those days appear over. This past weekend, Moss played just 13 of the team’s 61 snaps. He was given just seven carries after getting at least 11 in six of the team’s last seven games. He had received 18 or more attempts in five games in that stretch.
Players with season lows in usage this week:
Alvin Kamara (11.3 expected half PPR)
Bijan Robinson (8.7)
Stefon Diggs (8.0)
Mike Evans (7.6)
Raheem Mostert (7.3)
Zack Moss (4.8)
DeVonta Smith (3.8)
Travis Kelce (3.6)— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) November 6, 2023
Taylor returned to action in Week 5. From Weeks 5 to 8, Moss averaged 14.75 carries per game. His role diminished greatly this past weekend. This past Sunday, Taylor ran 21 routes to Moss’ three. Taylor out-targeted Moss five to zero and had 18 carries to Moss’ seven. Moss doesn’t necessarily need to be cut because he’s still one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football. Since Taylor returned, Moss has retained weekly fantasy value. However, if Week 9 is any indicator, those days are likely over. Moss will be a clear backup with five or so touches per game moving forward unless Taylor gets hurt.
Uh-Oh...
RB Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks - 99% Rostered
From Weeks 4 to 7, Walker played at least 70% of the team's snaps in all three of their games (Week 5 bye). However, in Week 8, Walker played just 24 of the team's 57 snaps. Zach Charbonnet played 32, which was a season-high for him, both in terms of snaps played and snap share. Not only did Charbonnet out-snap Walker, but he ran more routes than him too (22 to 12). They each received two targets, but Walker still had the advantage in rushing attempts (eight to five). The question became if this was due to a change in operating procedure or due to Walker nursing a groin injury that had him go DNP, DNP, and LP prior to Week 8.
This past weekend might have given us our answer. We might be witnessing a change in operating procedure in this Seattle offense. Once again, Charbonnet out-snapped Walker (27 to 24). He also ran more routes than Walker (18 to 14). Walker still out-targeted Charbonnet (two to one) and received more carries (nine to four). However, over the past two weeks, the touch totals for these two backs are a lot closer to 50/50 than they had been.
This season:
Kenneth Walker
117 attempts (season-low WK8)
4.4 YPC (1.4 after-contact)
75.7 PFF Rushing Grade
64.9 PFF Receiving Grade
53.0 PFF Pass-Blocking Grade📉📉📉
Zach Charbonnet
28 attempts
5.8 YPC (2.5 after-contact)
78.7 PFF Rushing Grade
57.4 PFF Receiving Grade…— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) November 4, 2023
It wasn’t long ago where Walker looked like an easy top-10 running back for the rest of the season. However, the last two games for the Seahawks have brought some serious questions as to what Walker’s value is moving forward. He’s still a weekly starter, but Charbonnet’s evolving role may mean he’s more of a mid-RB2 than the set-it-and-forget-it RB1 he was earlier in the season.
Hold On
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers - 92% Rostered
Okay, no one do anything crazy. Yes, Week 9 was brutal. Five targets, two receptions, -1 yard, and just 0.9 half-PPR points will have anyone questioning some bad decisions. It doesn’t help that since Diontae Johnson returned, Pickens has taken a clear step back. Over the last three weeks, he has just an 18.3% target share and is averaging six targets per game. That’s a pace of just 102 targets over 17 games.
However, in Week 8, both Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky played. A quarterback switch mid-game can cause a lot of issues for an offense. In Week 7, Johnson’s first game back, Pickens still had eight targets, five receptions, and 107 yards. In Week 8, we had the quarterback injury and he finished with just five targets on 43 attempts. He finished with just one catch, which luckily went for 22 yards and a score. Then we had the results from this past weekend.
He has a nice bounce-back opportunity this week against the Packers. Their CB2, Rasul Douglas, was traded to Buffalo. Their starting safety, Darnell Savage, is on IR. Their CB3, Eric Stokes, is on IR. Their secondary is now just Jaire Alexander and a bunch of day-three draft picks or undrafted free agents. Prior to Week 7, Pickens had 40 targets, 22 receptions, 393 yards, and two touchdowns in five games. He has scored 9.5 half-PPR points or more in three games, and over 20 in two. He’s still an incredibly talented receiver and the squeaky wheel usually gets the grease.
Sell High
RB Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens - 85% Rostered
If there’s a running back needy or desperate team in your league, I’d highly recommend trying to sell high on Edwards. Some might argue you shouldn’t sell him because he has six touchdowns in his last three games. I’d argue that’s exactly why you should be selling him. Over the last three weeks, he’s scored on 15.7% of his rush attempts. Raheem Mostert leads the league with 11 touchdowns. He’s scored on 10.0% of his carries. Christian McCaffrey is second with nine touchdowns and has scored on just 6.5% of his carries. That's a major red flag.
Over the past three weeks, Edwards has scored 54% of his half-PPR fantasy points off of touchdowns. Is any of this scoring sustainable? Absolutely not. The Ravens have scored 68 points the last two weeks and Lamar Jackson has just one passing touchdown. Is that likely to continue? Clearly not. All of the signs point to major regression for Edwards.
#Ravens Week 9 RB opportunities (carries + targets) *with Lamar Jackson* ...
Justice Hill - 8
Keaton Mitchell - 8
Gus Edwards - 5— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 6, 2023
All of this is to say nothing about the performance put on by Keaton Mitchell. He was insanely productive at East Carolina. From 2021 to 2022, he had 2,584 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns. He also had 49 receptions for 505 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He's just 5'9 and 188 pounds, but the speed and the acceleration is real. This week he rushed just nine times and had 138 yards with a 60-yard touchdown run. In years past, Edwards' play style was perfect for the smash-mouth brand of football Baltimore played, but this is a new Ravens offense. Mitchell's speed could become a bigger factor in this offense as the second half of the season rolls along. If Mitchell’s role increases and Edwards’ touchdowns dry up, his fantasy value will end up shrinking significantly. He’s a clear sell-high candidate.
Test the Market...
WR DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
I was all-in on Metcalf this offseason. Looking at his 2022 stats, he looked like an obvious candidate for some touchdown progression. He had scored double-digit touchdowns in 2021 and 2022 despite having just 129 targets. Last year, he scored just six times on 141 targets. Given his size, target volume, and poor end-zone efficiency, he seemed like a great bet for a huge bounce-back season. Through nine weeks of the season, nothing has been further from the truth. He has just two weeks where he's finished inside the top 24 among receivers. This includes a WR21 finish in Week 1 with 12.2 half-PPR points and a WR23 finish in Week 3 with 14.2 points. His other weekly finishes are WR25, WR36, WR40, and WR42. He's currently WR43 with the Monday night games yet to be played. Yuck.
DK Metcalf gotta be one of the most overvalued WR’s in dynasty.
Has cleared 14.5 PPG ONCE in 5 seasons.
Outscored by Tyler Lockett in PPG in 3-CONSECUTIVE seasons including this year.
Sub-20% target-share this year.
Back-end WR2/high-end WR3 masquerading as something more.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) November 5, 2023
He's been held to under 10 half-PPR points in three straight weeks and has yet to have a week where he's scored more than 15. He has three games with five or fewer targets and three or fewer receptions. Metcalf is a big-time name who was drafted as the WR15 and the talk is loud about his eventual spike week, which is without question, coming. It's not like he's not a talented player, but it's certainly possible that there's a fantasy manager willing to overpay to get Metcalf on their roster.
There are plenty of fantasy analysts talking about his positive regression. We can't pretend that his insane size, speed, and athleticism don't impact his favoritism among fantasy football managers. He's simply a fun player to have on your roster. However, he was just WR26 last year in half-PPR PPG, and through nine weeks, Monday night's game not included, he's the WR36. If I'm able to sell Metcalf at WR2 value, I'm jumping on it.
The struggles of Geno Smith are real. Considering his career arc, it's fair to wonder if his 2022 season was an aberration. If nothing else, the insane efficiency he displayed last year doesn't look likely to return anytime soon. The quarterback issues are one thing, but Metcalf is also still competing with Tyler Lockett who has out-performed him in each of the last three seasons, and first-round receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba who continues to get better and better. Metcalf is someone I'd be actively looking to sell. If you can't get a decent price right now, he has the Commanders in Week 10, who have been one of the most generous defenses to opposing receivers. It's possible his boom week happens this upcoming weekend and he'll give fantasy managers a golden opportunity to sell high.
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