Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

2021 Target Regression Candidates - Tight End

In the NFL and fantasy football, things can change as easily as the snap of a finger from campaign to campaign. One season, somebody breaks a record, and the next, they are fighting for targets and struggling to produce.

Based on game script, chemistry, and availability of weapons, targets can fluctuate for pass-catchers. In a position like TE, targets could be hard to come by at all depending on which team you are on. Naturally, some TEs could have breakout seasons too. Nevertheless, if your last name is not Kittle, Kelce, or Waller, you may have to work extra hard to snatch away targets from WRs.

Heading into 2021, there are quite a few TEs who should be due for a target regression. Let’s look at some candidates who are due for fewer targets come next season.

Featured Promo: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off and win big in 2023. Exclusive access to our Premium articles, 15 lineup tools, new Team Sync platform, Lineup Optimizer, Premium DFS tools and cheat sheets, and much more! Sign Up Now!


2021 Fantasy Projections


Evan Engram, New York Giants

For all of the good Big Blue will show every weekend, sadly most of that will stay on the "real life" side of things and not in the fantasy realm. Don't get me wrong, the Giants have built a monster of an offense mostly with one addition via free agency (WR Kenny Golladay), another one via the draft (WR Kadarius Toney), and the third one via injury recovery (RB Saquon Barkley). The only position that has not seen heavy changes has been that of Evan Engram, as the Giants have brought only an already washed-up Kyle Rudolph to play the backup role to Engram's leading one.

The clear winner here is going to be QB Daniel Jones, who will basically have between none and zero excuses to put up a great year playing in New York. The clear loser, if you ask me, is going to be long-established TE Engram, who will see a drop in targets whether he likes it or not. If we base that prediction on years past usage rates, the truth is that we should be dubious that will be the case. But there are too many, too tasty additions that it makes it hard trusting Engram getting targeted the fourth-most times among TEs (109 targets) once more.

Not only should the stiffer competition eat from Engram's targets, but actually it is his production that should give pause to the NYG staff when it comes to scheming plays for the TE. Engram has been just bad in the NFL. Sorry, but that's it. He was promising early, sure, but he has 1) missed time (only played 16 games for the first time last year), 2) posted catch rates below 58% in three of his four pro seasons (57.8% in 2020), and 3) gone from six to three, then three again, and lastly one receiving touchdown in his career. Was I to bet, I'd say there is a very slim chance he breaks the 100-target mark, with higher odds of him getting back to the 75-to-80 clip.


Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team

Thomas's career in the NFL has been absolutely bonkers. The Cardinals drafted him as a QB back in 2014 and he went on to complete one pass out of nine attempts in his rookie year for Arizona. Nothing remarkable. What was remarkable was the fact that three years later he changed positions, became a tight end, signed with Buffalo, and spent there the 2017-18 pair of seasons... while doing a bunch of nothing. A 16-game spell in Detroit in 2019 was good in terms of games played, sure, but his 28 targets over the year were rather putrid and the main reason he only finished with 39.3 PPR points. Then, the explosion.

Washington was the luckiest (before the start of the season) and the happiest (after the end of the year) franchise when it came to signing a TE for the 2020 season. Why? Well, Thomas finished as the TE4 with a total of 176.6 FP on the year, virtually tied with Robert Tonyan for a top-three finish at the position. He averaged 11.0 FPPG in PPR leagues, logged 110 targets (compared to 54 in the three years before combined) while catching 65.5% of those passes, and racked up 670 yards and six scores in 16 games played. All of that for someone who was getting off draft boards as the TE30 (!!!) last summer--if drafted at all.

How sustainable are 110 targets from one season to the next one, you say? Well, only 31 players logged 100+ targets in back-to-back seasons since 2010, which means that happens to three players per season, and only to 20 if we raise the bar to 110+ targets in those two consecutive years. Slim to no chances at all, that's what I mean.

The Footies are also bringing firepower at the wideout position with the additions of Curtis Samuel (best pass catcher in terms of catch rate last season), Adam Humphries, and rookie Dyami Brown. Add a fantastic and still developing Terry McLaurin to that, and it's more than probable to see Logan Thomas falling below the 100-target mark next season. Also, Thomas saw his targets go sky high in two of the last three games of the season (17 and 12 in W15-16 respectively), which is clearly skewing his year-long counting numbers.


Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers

Ebron's situation contrasts a bit with those of both Evan Engram and Logan Thomas, who both should be facing stronger competition by the start of the 2021 season. Ebron will do so in that Pittsburgh has brought a much-needed running back to town in rookie Najee Harris, who profiles as a three-down/do-it-all player and should get a lot of opportunities even as a freshman. Other than that, though, no other impactful changes have taken place in Pitt--assuming you don't see rookie TE Pat Freiermuth as a real threat to Ebron's 2021 season.

Now, check this out. Ebron's gotten targeted more than 86 times in precisely two years: his absolute outlier of a 2018 campaign in which he scored 13 (!!!) touchdowns and put up 750 yards on 110 targets and 66 receptions, and last year when he got targeted 91 times while catching 56 passes for 558 yards and five scores. The numbers were not bad but they weren't mindblowing either. Oh, and QB Ben Roethlisberger, who is nearing the sweet 40-year-old mark, isn't getting any better.

PFF has Ebron projected to lose 11 targets compared to last year, which is nothing really huge and could amount to just a good game over the year. Keep in mind that there are 17 games in the schedule this season so it's not that he'll just lose you the league. But with the super-young and super-productive Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool playing fantastic football last season in their second and first years as pros, odds are they keep growing in this offense and getting trusted heavily, more than Ebron will. Oh, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, like it or not, is back with the club. He got all of the short-depth targets with an aDOT of just 5.7 yards, making life harder for a tight end like Ebron, who also struggles mightily at getting YAC.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

Win Big With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts


Casey DeSmith9 mins ago

Named Starter Tuesday
Carter Hart18 mins ago

Starting Tuesday Against Montreal
Johan Oviedo29 mins ago

To Start Season In Rotation
Tyler Heineman44 mins ago

Yerry De Los Santos Sent Down
Sandy León56 mins ago

Sandy Leon Re-Signs With Rangers
Jurickson Profar1 hour ago

Has Visa Issues Resolved
Keston Hiura1 hour ago

Outrighted To Triple-A
Andrés Giménez1 hour ago

Guardians, Andres Gimenez Finalizing Long-Term Extension
Lamar Jackson1 hour ago

Texans Not Expected To Pursue Lamar Jackson
Desmond Ridder2 hours ago

Preparing To Be Falcons Starter
Los Angeles Rams2 hours ago

Rams Re-Sign Marquise Copeland
Thomas Detry2 hours ago

Continues To Impress In Rookie Season
Trey Sermon2 hours ago

Eagles Like Trey Sermon's Potential
Kyler Murray2 hours ago

No Timeline For Kyler Murray
Buffalo Bills2 hours ago

Von Miller On Schedule In His Recovery
Buffalo Bills2 hours ago

Sean McDermott To Call Defensive Plays
Aaron Rai2 hours ago

Brings Positive Momentum To Valero Texas Open
Javonte Williams2 hours ago

Making "Great Strides" In Recovery
Akshay Bhatia2 hours ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Texas
Hobie Harris2 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Tyrone Taylor3 hours ago

Hoping To Return In Mid-May
Adrian Houser3 hours ago

Likely To Open On Injured List
Jeff Hoffman3 hours ago

Released By Twins
Kris Bubic3 hours ago

Named Royals Fifth Starter
Sean Doolittle3 hours ago

Tanner Rainey To Continue Rehabbing
Hunter Gaddis3 hours ago

Expected To Enter Rotation
Josiah Gray3 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Saturday
Devin Duvernay3 hours ago

Expected To Return In 2023
Matthew Stafford4 hours ago

Won't Have Any Limitations
Trey Lance4 hours ago

Has A Chance To Regain Starting Job
Odell Beckham Jr.4 hours ago

Giants A Long Shot For Odell Beckham Jr.
DJ Chark4 hours ago

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Michael Thomas4 hours ago

Making Progress In Recovery
Aaron Rodgers4 hours ago

Trade Could Involve Two Second-Round Picks
Irv Smith Jr.4 hours ago

Agrees To One-Year Deal With Bengals
César Hernández4 hours ago

Tigers Release Cesar Hernandez
James McCann5 hours ago

Likely To Open On Injured List
Mychal Givens5 hours ago

Headed To Injured List
Leody Taveras5 hours ago

Out Another Week
Sergio Romo5 hours ago

Officially Retires With Giants
Cristian Pache5 hours ago

Won't Be On Opening Day Roster
Daniel Hudson5 hours ago

Could Return In Late April
Nicolas Batum5 hours ago

Drops Eight Three-Point Bombs On Chicago
Nikola Jokic6 hours ago

Logs His 29th Triple-Double Of The Year
Tyrese Maxey6 hours ago

Leads Sixers Offense With 29 Points
Immanuel Quickley6 hours ago

Scores Career-High 40 Points
Bennedict Mathurin6 hours ago

Breaks Out Of Slump Monday
Jaden Ivey6 hours ago

Fills The Box Score Monday
Khris Middleton6 hours ago

Has Season-High 34 Points Monday
Lawson Crouse6 hours ago

Delivers Three Assists Monday
Leon Draisaitl7 hours ago

Takes Point Streak To Nine Games
Connor McDavid7 hours ago

Hits 140 Points For The Season
Cale Makar7 hours ago

Helps To Set Up Two Goals
Marc-Andre Fleury7 hours ago

Returns To Form Monday
Matthew Boldy7 hours ago

Scores Another Hat Trick
Trevor Zegras7 hours ago

Suffers A Lower-Body Injury
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander16 hours ago

Questionable Versus Charlotte
Ja Morant16 hours ago

Doubtful Versus Orlando
Terry Rozier16 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday Evening
Gordon Hayward17 hours ago

Unlikely To Play Against OKC
Daniel Gafford17 hours ago

Dealing With A Sore Foot
Kyle Palmieri17 hours ago

Records Three Points Monday
Monte Morris17 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday Night
Kyle Kuzma17 hours ago

Remains Out Versus Boston
Gustav Forsling17 hours ago

Scores Twice Despite Florida Loss
Bradley Beal17 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk17 hours ago

Logs Two Points In Ottawa Win
New England Patriots17 hours ago

Jerod Mayo To Be Bill Belichick's Successor?
Buffalo Bills18 hours ago

Taylor Rapp Signs One-Year Deal With Bills
Jarrett Stidham18 hours ago

Broncos Think Jarrett Stidham Has Starting Potential
Gardner Minshew18 hours ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Mac Jones18 hours ago

Not Guaranteed To Start In 2023
Maxi Kleber20 hours ago

Questionable On Monday
Jrue Holiday21 hours ago

Ruled Out Monday
Marcus Morris21 hours ago

Sr. Sitting Out On Monday
Karl-Anthony Towns21 hours ago

To Sit Out On Monday
Tyrese Haliburton21 hours ago

Won't Play On Monday
Myles Turner21 hours ago

Unavailable On Monday
Reilly Smith21 hours ago

Ruled Out For At Least Three Games
Erik Gudbranson21 hours ago

Won't Return This Season
Todd Gilliland22 hours ago

Impressive At COTA
Ville Husso22 hours ago

Could Be Done For The Season
Ty Gibbs22 hours ago

Finds His Footing At COTA
Robby Fabbri22 hours ago

Likely Finished For The Season
Troy Terry22 hours ago

Sits Out Monday's Game
Chris Buescher22 hours ago

Continues To Shine On Road Courses
Frank Vatrano22 hours ago

Returns To Ducks Lineup
NASCAR22 hours ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Seventh
Tage Thompson22 hours ago

A Game-Time Call For Monday
Austin Cindric22 hours ago

Has A Solid Day
Jonas Johansson23 hours ago

Tends Twine Monday In Anaheim
Sergei Bobrovsky23 hours ago

In Goal Monday Against Ottawa
Marlon Vera1 day ago

Has Four-Fight Winning Streak Snapped
Cory Sandhagen1 day ago

Dominates Striking Department
Yana Santos1 day ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Holly Holm1 day ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
Austin Lingo1 day ago

Suffers Submission Loss
Nate Landwehr1 day ago

Shines With Second-Round Submission Win
Andrea Lee1 day ago

Suffers Defeat In Close Matchup Saturday
Maycee Barber1 day ago

Takes Close Matchup On Saturday
Chidi Njokuani1 day ago

Takes Close Loss In Split-Decision Showing
Albert Duraev1 day ago

Holds Off Opponent In Tight Split Decision
William Byron1 day ago

Rounds Out Top Five At COTA
Ross Chastain1 day ago

Caught Up To Fourth At COTA On Sunday
Alex Bowman1 day ago

Brings Home Third Place Finish At COTA
Kyle Busch1 day ago

Scrambles Up To Second At Austin
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Dominates And Wins At COTA
Jordan Taylor3 days ago

Making NASCAR Debut At COTA, Will Start 4th
Austin Cindric3 days ago

Excited To Showcase Speed At COTA This Weekend
Austin Dillon3 days ago

Starts 28th At COTA For Sunday
Ricky Stenhouse Jr3 days ago

. In Middle Of Pack For COTA
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Rough Patch In Qualifying On Saturday
Kyle Busch3 days ago

Starts Ninth For COTA Race On Sunday
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Could Be A Wildcard On Sunday
Noah Gragson3 days ago

Finds Way To Qualify 10th At COTA
Brad Keselowski3 days ago

A Few Seconds Off the COTA Pace
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Begins 38th For Sunday's Race At COTA
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Just A Little Off At COTA On Saturday
Cory Sandhagen4 days ago

Can Earn Back-To-Back Victories
Marlon Vera4 days ago

Finds Himself In Main-Event Spotlight Saturday
Yana Santos4 days ago

Looking For Biggest UFC Win Of Her Career
Holly Holm4 days ago

Seeking First Victory Since 2020
Austin Lingo4 days ago

On Verge Of Three-Fight Winning Streak
Nate Landwehr4 days ago

Hoping For Third Straight Strong Performance
Maycee Barber5 days ago

Can Continue Her Flyweight Ascent
Andrea Lee5 days ago

In Need Of Victory To Keep Momentum Going
MMA5 days ago

Manel Kape On The Hunt For Fourth Straight Victory Saturday
Alex Perez5 days ago

Seeking First Victory Since 2020
Albert Duraev5 days ago

Can Rebound With A Victory