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Keith Hernandez analyzes NFL players to consider sitting or benching for Super Bowl LIV between the Chiefs and 49ers. These are his top potential fantasy football lineup busts to avoid starting.
The big game is finally here, and it feels a little strange that the Patriots won't be representing the AFC in this year's Super Bowl for the first time since 2016. Instead, it'll be a Chiefs team featuring a high-flying offense under mastermind Andy Reid, with superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes leading the ship. Will they be able to triumph over the 49ers, one of the NFL's top overall defenses? San Francisco also boasts an ingenious offensive approach under Kyle Shanahan and a multi-faceted running attack that hasn't been contained this postseason. It should be a fun one.
The biggest question surrounding this game is whether the Niners D can contain Mahomes, who has thrown for 615 yards and eight touchdowns in two playoff games leading up to this point. Oh, and he's also rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts. Led by veteran cornerback Richard Sherman, the 49ers were the top-ranked pass defense in the NFL in 2019, and they were also tied for fifth with 48 sacks. If rookie Nick Bosa and company can't contain Mahomes to the pocket and limit big plays down the field, they won't have much of a shot at winning this game. I'm predicting that the Chiefs rushing attack surprises with a big game, opening things up for Mahomes to do what he does best in leading the Chiefs to their second NFL title.
Below are four potential DFS busts for Super Bowl LIV.
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Raheem Mostert ($9,400 on DraftKings)
Mostert won a lot of people some money in the NFC Championship when he ran for 220 yards and four touchdowns on 29 carries (7.6 yards per carry). He's become the unquestioned leader of Shanahan's deep rushing attack and should be the focal point on the ground once again. On paper against a Kansas City rush defense that allowed 128.2 ground yards per game this year (26th in the NFL), Mostert seems like a great pick.
However, keep in mind that Tevin Coleman left the game early against the Packers with a dislocated shoulder and ran the ball just six times in the NFC Championship. In the Divisional win against Minnesota, Mostert had just 12 carries, and his only game with 20-plus totes was against Green Bay when Coleman was hurt. With Coleman on track to suit up this Sunday, expect more of a timeshare. I'm expecting the Chiefs to jump out to a lead in this one, which could also hurt Mostert's workload; he was targeted more than three times in the passing game just once in 2019 back on Sept. 15 when he caught three passes on four targets.
Tyreek Hill ($11,000 on DK)
The 25-year-old speedster will be in most DFS lineups for the Super Bowl, and for good reason. He's a potential touchdown waiting to happen on every single pass play, and the Chiefs like to air it out. Hill averaged a healthy 14.8 yards per catch this season and caught five of his seven targets for 67 yards and two touchdowns in the AFC Championship against the Titans.
But as mentioned earlier, the 49ers Defense allowed the fewest receiving yards per game (192.1) and were tied with the Bills in giving up the fewest pass plays of 20-plus yards (34). Hill will certainly have his chances to spring a touchdown, and most of his scoring has come in bunches this year, but if he can't break a big one against this stingy pass defense, he has the potential to be a bust for those that roster him. And if KC gets out to an early lead, they may not need to take as many deep shots to Hill.
Harrison Butker ($4,200 on DK)
Kansas City's offense can put up points with the best of them, which helped Butker become the highest scoring fantasy kicker during the regular season. And although the Chiefs put up a whopping 86 points against the Texans and Titans to get to Super Bowl Sunday, Butker only attempted one field goal in those two games.
The Chiefs kicker was outstanding during the regular season, converting 34 of his 38 field-goal tries (89.5 percent) and 45 of his 48 extra points. They say defense wins championships, and the 49ers have a good one. But in the end I think KC's offense will be too much to handle and won't have a problem getting the ball into the end zone, which will limit Butker's chances to put up more DFS points with field goals.
49ers Defense/Special Teams ($3,600 on DK)
It's been an incredible year for defensive coordinator Robert Saleh's unit, as they allowed the second-fewest yards per game (281.8) and were the top passing defense in the NFL. But while they are stingy through the air and are a top-five pass-rushing unit, the 49ers defense has a weakness. They can be beat on the ground (112.6 rushing yards allowed per game) for an average of 4.5 yards per carry against them.
Often times elite defenses get the last laugh on the biggest stage, but I think Mahomes and the Chiefs offense as a whole is too much to handle. KC's mustachioed head coach will find ways to win on the ground to open up the Chiefs lethal air attack. San Francisco may not be able to get a leg up in the turnover department either, as Mahomes has taken care of the ball -- only five picks this year. And his offensive line has kept his jersey clean; Mahomes has been sacked more than two times in a game just twice all season. It helps that he's one of the best scrambling QBs in the game, which will be the difference.
