X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Projecting MLB's Demoted Top Prospect Hitters - Is A Rebound Likely?

Jo Adell - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Jordan projects and analyzes acclaimed young hitters like Jarred Kelenic, Jo Adell, and more, who have been demoted in 2022 to see how likely they are to rebound for fantasy baseball.

You know the pattern: an acclaimed prospect (or young player) gets the call, folks spend hundreds of dollars of FAAB on them, then they get demoted a few rough weeks later.

Sometimes, they fail to rediscover their shine in the minors. Other times they get another chance in the majors and take a major step forward, becoming a household name — think Kyle Tucker. Already in 2022, various young players have flopped and been sent to the minors for more seasoning: C.J. Abrams, Alex Kirilloff, Bryson Stott, Jarred Kelenic, Jo Adell, Josh Lowe, and Akil Baddoo, among others.

This article considers this group's minor league performance along with their greater historical track record to see whether a rebound is likely.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Methodology Underlying Peak MLB Prospect Projections

This article leverages my research on aging and the minor leagues with Ross Jensen at ‘Scout the Stat Line.’ For each of the aforementioned names, I provide a peak projection (updated to include all MILB and MLB games played through 5/29) for a batter’s peak MLB K%, BB%, stolen bases per 600 plate appearances (SB/600), and wOBA on contact (wOBAcon). Together, K%, BB%, and wOBAcon explain nearly all of the variance in batter skill.

The peak projections take a batter’s stats across the minor and major leagues and adjust them for league difficulty and scoring environment so that they are all on the same major league baseline. They also add in aging growth so that they represent a batter’s peak.

To project each statistic, the projections simply weight past performance of the statistic, from 2019 to 2022, with more recent seasons weighted more heavily (5/4/3/2 weighting for 2022/2021/2020/2019). I do not add in regression to maximize the differences between players; however, you can find the same projections with regression added in here. For context, the projections are scaled to an MLB environment where a league-average bat has the following performance: 100 wRC+, 7.5 SB/600, 24% K, 8% BB, .357 wOBAcon.

 

Peak MLB Projections for Noteworthy Bats

C.J. Abrams 103 wRC+ 7% BB 18% K .339 wOBAcon 19 SB/600

Though he was called up straight from Double-A and likely rushed before he was ready on account of the Fernando Tatís Jr. injury, Abrams showed a solid pairing of patience and contact in the majors and even barreled it up a few times before his demotion. His 22% K is a bit high at Triple-A, but he has shown good power with four home runs in 81 plate appearances. He looks like a good bet to peak at 15 to 20 home runs and push 20 stolen bases at the MLB level, with a good K%. He remains a tantalizing fantasy talent.

Alex Kirilloff 106 wRC+ 9% BB 21% K .356 wOBAcon 4 SB/600

Kirilloff bombed in his 32 MLB PA, with a 19 wRC+ and 38% K. However, he’s walking as much as he’s striking out at Triple-A, with a 143 wRC+. Scouting reports have long projected more power than he has shown statistically thus far in his professional career, so he could outperform this projection, which already foresees above-average patience and contact. I’d bet on his MILB stay being a relatively short one.

Bryson Stott 88 wRC+ 10% BB 26% K .336 wOBAcon 6 SB/600

Stott struggled to a -12 wRC+ in his 75 MLB PA but has looked better in the minors with a 156 wRC+. His upside is limited by a moderately high K% and below-average pop and speed, but he should eventually settle in as an everyday shortstop, offering good value in deeper formats.

Jarred Kelenic 113 wRC+ 11% BB 25% K .383 wOBAcon 16 SB/600

Instead of taking a step forward in his sophomore season as many expected, Kelenic regressed from a 73 MLB wRC+ in 2021 to 52 wRC+ in 2022, with his K% ballooning ten percentage points to 38%. He has rocked the ball in Triple-A though, with three home runs and a 158 wRC+ in 50 PA. Further, the rest of his MiLB track record is both too stellar and too recent to give up on expecting a bright future for Kelenic. He has struggled enough at the MLB level that is probably no longer wise to expect him to ever emerge as an option in the first two rounds, however.

Jo Adell 108 wRC+ 8% BB 30% K .411 wOBAcon 9 SB/600

Adell has now been below average at the MLB level for three consecutive seasons. Digging below the surface though, there is a lot to like. He barreled it up 17% of the time this year, more than twice the MLB average, and posted a .341 xwOBA. His .316 xwOBA was also better than his .303 wOBA in 2021. In Triple-A, he’s done exactly what anyone could have hoped, showing perhaps his best blend of patience (17% BB), contact (29% K), and power (.383 isolated power) professionally yet – or at least since Double-A 2019, when he was considered one of the game's best prospects.

Adell has long generated extreme scouting hype for his raw power and he is tapping into it in Triple-A. The upside is there for an eventual Tyler O’Neill-style breakout, albeit probably with just 10 SB — he has never been aggressive on the basepaths despite elite speed.

Josh Lowe 113 wRC+ 11% BB 32% K .420 wOBAcon 17 SB/600

Josh Lowe offers a fantasy-friendly game, with good power and speed, but lots of strikeouts. His K% was 38% in the majors and is now 40% in Triple-A, but he should be able to cut it enough to eventually make him a good, if not elite, fantasy contributor.

Akil Baddoo 100 wRC+ 11% BB 24% K .345 wOBAcon 22 SB/600

Baddoo, one of 2021’s biggest surprises, regressed negatively in a big way in 2022. He is currently on the IL with an oblique strain. He offers good patience and solid contact skills and enough speed and power to be a solid fantasy contributor if he’s able to hit enough to reclaim everyday at-bats.

 

Conclusion

Most deserve a second chance – some deserve third and fourth chances too! Don't forget about players just because they are no longer playing at the major league level. Consider all information, across both the minors and majors. They could be back up soon enough!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Bobby Witt Jr.

Exits Early on Friday
Xavier Worthy

Injures Shoulder Early in Brazil, Questionable to Return
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Placed on Injured List With Quad Strain
Tyler Glasnow

Scratched on Friday With Back Tightness
Jayden Reed

Questionable to Play in Season Opener
Christian McCaffrey

Listed as Questionable for Season Opener With Calf Issue
Tyreek Hill

Cleared for Week 1
Rasmus Hojgaard

Finishes Tied For Second at Omega European Masters
Tyrrell Hatton

Finishes Tied for 32nd at LIV Indianapolis
Matt Fitzpatrick

Finishes Fifth at Omega European Masters
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied For Second in 2025 FedEx Cup Standings
Xander Schauffele

Finishes 42nd in 2025 FedEx Cup Standings
Tyler Glasnow

Scratched From Friday's Start for Undisclosed Reasons
Christian Kirk

Ruled Out for Week 1
Shohei Ohtani

Returning to the Mound on Friday
Kyle Finnegan

Lands on Injured List With Adductor Strain
Aaron Judge

Returns to Right Field on Friday
De'Von Achane

Without Injury Designation Heading Into Week 1
Christian McCaffrey

Seen Working on Side Field During Friday's Practice
Malik Nabers

Cleared to Play on Sunday
Willson Contreras

' Suspension Reduced, to Start Serving it on Friday
Kodai Senga

Mets Send Kodai Senga to Triple-A to Get Right
Chris Godwin

Officially Ruled Out for Week 1
Malik Nabers

' Reps Limited Friday Due to "Tight" Back
Caio Borralho

Set For A Title Eliminator Bout
Nassourdine Imavov

Looks To Earn A Title Shot
Mauricio Ruffy

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set For UFC Paris Co-Main Event
Modestas Bukauskas

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Paul Craig

In Dire Need Of Victory
Mason Jones

Set for Main-Card Bout
Bolaji Oki

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Rhys McKee

Set To Open Up UFC Paris Main Card
Axel Sola

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Saquon Barkley

Scores Touchdown in Low-Yardage Outing
Jalen Hurts

Rushes for Two Touchdowns on Thursday
Javonte Williams

Salvages Inefficient Outing With Two Touchdowns
CeeDee Lamb

110-Yard Game Marred by Four Drops
Will Shipley

Questionable to Return on Thursday Night
Pablo López

Pablo Lopez Expected to Return on Friday
Micah Parsons

Expected to Play in Week 1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Exits With Knee Contusions
Christian McCaffrey

Listed as Limited With Calf Injury
Justin Jefferson

Not on Week 1 Injury Report
Omarion Hampton

to Start Against Chiefs on Friday
Will Smith

Unlikely to Play This Weekend
Shohei Ohtani

to Pitch on Monday
Najee Harris

Off the Final Injury Report, Will Play in Week 1
Jon Rahm

Looks to Prove His Importance on European Ryder Cup Team
Tommy Fleetwood

Among Leaders of European Ryder Cup Team
Christian Kirk

Expected to be Sidelined in Week 1, Could Miss More Time
Brandon Sproat

to Start for Mets on Sunday
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Close to Triple-Double Versus Serbia
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Fills Box Score Against Turkey
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Shakes Off Minor Injury
E.J. Liddell

Inks Two-Way Deal With Nets
NBA

Ben Simmons Reportedly Considering Retirement
P.J. Washington

Agrees to Four-Year, $90 Million Extension
Mike Trout

Plans to Return on Thursday
Will Smith

X-Rays Negative on Will Smith's Hand
Will Smith

Exits With Hand Contusion
Jackson Chourio

in Lineup Wednesday Despite Hamstring Cramps
Sepp Straka

Gets Captain's Pick to Join Team Europe
Christian Yelich

Dealing With Soreness in Lower Back
PGA

Victor Hovland to Make Third Ryder Cup Appearance for Team Europe
J.J. Spaun

Set to Represent Team USA for First Time at Bethpage
Russell Henley

Makes First Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Harris English

Named to Ryder Cup Team for Second Time
Kyle Finnegan

Dealing With Groin Issue
Shohei Ohtani

Will Pitch "Sometime This Weekend"
Justin Thomas

Making Fourth Ryder Cup Team Appearance at Bethpage
Ben Griffin

Making First Career Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Bryson DeChambeau

Set to be Part of Team USA at Bethpage
Santi Aldama

Bags Double-Double in Losing Effort
Guerschon Yabusele

Erupts for 36 Points Against Poland
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Leads Slovenia Into Next Round at EuroBasket
San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Umude Signs Training Camp Deal With Spurs
Reece Beekman

Joins Magic for Training Camp
Justin Minaya

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Magic
Alexandre Sarr

to Miss Rest of EuroBasket
Jared McCain

"On Pace" for Training Camp
Luke Hughes

Devils Optimistic About Signing Luke Hughes
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Dylan Holloway

Good to Go for Start of Season
Josh Morrissey

Fully Healthy for Start of Season
Dennis Hildeby

Signs Three-Year Extension With Maple Leafs
Franz Wagner

Collects Double-Double in Blowout Win
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Achieves Rare Numbers at EuroBasket
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Dominates Against Sweden
Kristaps Porzingis

Finding Form at EuroBasket
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Suffers Minor Injury at EuroBasket
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP