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Hayden Epinette looks at three NFL players who had productive rookie seasons but could regress in year two, making them players to avoid in fantasy football.
Each year, a new, promising crop of rookies enters the NFL. A number of these rookies meet or exceed expectations as first-year players and establish themselves as rising stars in the professional ranks. Many then proceed to ascend further in subsequent seasons. However, not all of these young talents continue on their upward trajectories; some level out or even regress in their second years.
Last year, for instance, Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce failed to replicate his rookie success. In 2022, Pierce rushed for 939 yards and four touchdowns with an average of 4.3 yards per carry. In 2023, however, he ran for merely 416 yards and two scores and averaged just 2.9 yards per attempt. The managers who drafted Pierce at his ADP last year (RB18 in half-PPR) were sorely disappointed by his lack of production.
It is crucial to identify which second-year players may suffer a "sophomore slump" to avoid experiencing such dismal results. For this reason, below are three such players with red flags to keep in mind while preparing for fantasy drafts.
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Rashee Rice - WR - Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice had a strong rookie campaign last year. The second-rounder out of SMU caught 79 passes for 938 yards and seven touchdowns, establishing a solid rapport with superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Rice was particularly effective in the final stages of the season; from Week 12 onward, he averaged 18.5 PPR points per game, making him the WR8 over that span among players with at least three appearances.
Since he and the Chiefs won the Super Bowl in February, though, Rice has made headlines for all of the wrong reasons. In late March, Rice was involved in a high-speed car crash, resulting in him now facing eight felony charges. Also, in early May, it was reported that Rice was being investigated for an alleged altercation with a photographer at a Dallas nightclub; however, the alleged victim reportedly declined to press charges in this incident. Additional unsavory reports about Rice have surfaced since.
Multiple teams learned before the NFL Draft that WR Rashee Rice was allegedly involved in an incident at SMU.
Rice (or someone with him), fired multiple bullets into an empty car belonging to Kendric Davis after attending an SMU basketball game with friends, per @ProFootballTalk pic.twitter.com/NnAnUGf8W7
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) May 10, 2024
Likely partially due to the persistent belief that Rice will be suspended, the Chiefs traded up in the first round of this year's NFL Draft to select Texas wideout Xavier Worthy. Moreover, earlier in the offseason, Kansas City signed former Cardinals receiver Marquise Brown in free agency. With future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce returning as well, Mahomes will have other options to pass to whether Rice is suspended or not.
Because of these factors, there is a ton of uncertainty surrounding Rice's outlook for the upcoming season. At some point there will be more clarity regarding Rice's availability, or lack thereof, to begin the year. However, depending on how the team incorporates Brown and Worthy, Rice's role could be diminished regardless. It is difficult to imagine him being able to maintain the momentum he gained at the end of the 2023 season given how much has transpired since then.
Jordan Addison - WR - Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison made quite an impact in his first NFL season. Addison compiled 70 receptions on 108 targets for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. The former USC Trojan also posted two WR1 finishes in PPR formats: Week 7 versus San Francisco and Week 15 against Cincinnati. Addison certainly gave fantasy managers a lot to look forward to for future seasons.
However, the Vikings experienced some upheaval at the quarterback position this offseason. Kirk Cousins, who had been the team's starter since 2018, departed for Atlanta in free agency. Minnesota initially filled the void with the uninspiring Sam Darnold, but they then traded up in this year's NFL Draft to select quarterback J.J. McCarthy out of Michigan with the tenth overall pick. Darnold is still expected to begin the season as the team's starting QB, but McCarthy could take over at any moment.
With the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 @NFLDraft, the @Vikings select J.J. McCarthy! @NewEraCap
📺: #NFLDraft on NFLN/ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/N5F3jkSKBP— NFL (@NFL) April 26, 2024
This is a crucial development, but it is particularly important when you consider how Addison's production fluctuated last year. In the eight games where Cousins played the majority of the team's snaps, Addison averaged 15.8 PPR points per game. In four outings with Nick Mullens at the helm, he put up 13.0 PPR points on average. With Joshua Dobbs at QB, though, Addison only averaged 8.6 PPR points per game; this is despite having a 100-percent route participation rate in each of those weeks.
The Vikings did lose wide receiver K.J. Osborn in free agency, and tight end T.J. Hockenson is poised to miss multiple games to begin the year as he recovers from a torn ACL and MCL. However, if Addison is unable to establish connections with Darnold and McCarthy, the fruitful opportunity could be squandered. Additionally, issues could arise on the quarterback end if Darnold and McCarthy do not acclimate well to the new environment. This is a situation to monitor.
Jayden Reed - WR - Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers wideout Jayden Reed, like Rice and Addison, impressed observers as a rookie. Reed caught 64 passes for 793 yards and eight touchdowns last season, and he added 119 yards and two more scores on the ground. He was the league's WR10 in PPR formats over the final nine weeks of the season. Reed had eight weekly finishes as a top-25 receiver, including each of his last four appearances.
While these figures are heartening, it is important to note that that closing stretch coincided with teammate Christian Watson's absence. Watson had an encouraging rookie season of his own in 2022 before hamstring injuries hampered his sophomore season in Green Bay. However, he reportedly has worked to correct a muscle imbalance between his legs this offseason, potentially addressing the source of his hamstring issues. Five of Reed's eight top-25 finishes occurred with Watson injured.
Christian Watson is in a "really good place right now."
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) May 21, 2024
Also notable are the changes the Packers made to their running back room. The team lost Aaron Jones to Minnesota, but Jones missed six games last year and was limited in several others. They have replaced him with star Josh Jacobs, who was acquired in free agency, and third-round rookie MarShawn Lloyd. A.J. Dillon is also returning for his fifth season with the team. Green Bay was 21st in run plays per game last year, but their moves suggest a rise in the ranks is in store for 2024.
Quarterback Jordan Love showed effectiveness in his first season as Green Bay's starter last year, but the changes elsewhere in Reed's environment should give fantasy managers some pause. It's unclear how the hierarchy in the receiving room will shake out, and the influx of running back talent could reduce opportunities. It would be prudent to remain realistic regarding expectations for Reed's second season.
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