October 6, 2017

Edward Sutelan reviews his preseason bold predictions, as he looks back at the predictions he made before the season began.

One of the my favorite articles of the year is to write up my bold predictions for what will happen in the upcoming fantasy baseball season. Another one of my favorite articles is looking back on those bold predictions to see how great (terrible) my predictions wound up being.

I will tell you right now, I didn't go completely 0-for, but the predictions didn't turn out super great.

So, without further ado, let's see how I did in my bold predictions!

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Edward Sutelan's Bold Predictions for 2017

1. Nomar Mazara is a top-30 outfielder
In 2016, Mazara hit .266/.320/.419 with 20 home runs, a 6.9 percent walk rate and 19.7 percent strikeout rate. In 2017, he basically did the exact thing. For someone as young as he is, that isn't terrible.

But was it anywhere near the top 30 outfielders? Nope. A nice big glass of nope. He ranked 71st among outfielders according to ESPN and still clearly has a long ways to go before he is able to reach his sky-high ceiling. This year shouldn't discourage owners from considering him in dynasty leagues and viewing him as a future middle-of-the-order stud, but he is no top-30 outfielder. Here's to the first failing grade of the day.

Verdict: F

2. The Tampa Bay Rays' rotation leads the Al in strikeouts
This one was a pretty smooth L.The Ray's finished sixth in the American League in strikeouts, about 250 behind the leading Cleveland Indians.

In my bold prediction, I listed Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jose De Leon, Jake Odorizzi and Brent Honeywell as guys who would see time in the Rays' rotation who would rack up the strikeout totals. But De Leon was hurt for most of the year, Snell was in the minors for a good bit of time, Odorizzi had a terrible year and Honeywell never reached the majors. The poor guys never had a chance to lead the league in strikeouts. Chalk this up as another failing grade for Ed.

Verdict: F

3. Jose Peraza leads the majors in stolen bases
He almost finished with half of the league leader. Does that count?

No. Peraza limped through much of this season with a dreadful .297 on-base percentage, fueled by a clear inability to take a walk (3.9 percent) and an inconsistent batting average through much of the season (.259) limited Peraza's opportunities and he finished the year with only 23 stolen bases. Statcast's sprint speed leaderboard has him listed as only the 89th fastest player in baseball this season. He is probably not necessarily that much slower than everybody else, but he certainly is no Billy Hamilton or Byron Buxton which means he will need to become a better hitter to steal bases at a high clip. He failed to do that this season. I failed on this prediction.

Verdict: F

4. Devon Travis is a top-10 second baseman
The big question for Travis was going to be whether or not he could stay healthy. Before the year, he had accumulated only 163 total games played over his first two seasons in the majors.

Make that now 113 total games after his first three seasons as Travis played in only 50 games this year before losing his season to a knee injury. He showed off his potential in the time he played, launching five homers and swiping four bags in 50 games. But if you can't stay healthy, you can't be an impact player in fantasy leagues. Travis was not this season. At the end of the year, he was the 62nd-best second baseman. Juuuuuuuust a bit outside.

Verdict: F

5. Edwin Diaz is the top relief pitcher in the game
Around the midseason of this year, this was beginning to look like a disaster. Diaz was all over the place and he was getting rocked by opposing hitters.

But he started to turn it around in the second half, dropping his opponents' batting average down 50 points and posting a 3.09 ERA compared to a 4.81 ERA. The peripherals were mostly the same, but Diaz was just a touch luckier in the second half and it paid off. ESPN listed him as the 12th best relief pitcher in baseball at the end of the year. All things considered, that's not bad considering the amount of talented bullpen arms.

Verdict: C

6. Jose Bautista is a bad investment
Finally we get to a true 100 percent W. FantasyPros has Bautista listed with a preseason ADP of 88, putting him ahead of guys like Andrew Benintendi, Willson Contreras and a bunch of other studly bats and arms. He finished the year ranked 130th . . . among outfielders.

Yes you read that right. He was the 130th-best outfielder according to ESPN. The 36-year-old journeyman finished the year with a .203/.308/.366 slash line and a 24.8 percent strikeout rate. His 23 homers weren't enough to buoy his fantasy value this season and ultimately if you drafted him at 88th overall, you may have sunk. Give me an A!

Verdict: A+

7. Rafael Devers will bat seventh for the Red Sox on August 15th
Does it count that he hit fifth that day? I'm going to say yes.

I had been told by several in the industry before the season that Devers wouldn't see the majors this season. It seemed pretty obvious to me that he had a clear path to playing time if he hit well at Double-A, which he most certainly did. And for what it's worth, 28.8 percent of his plate appearances in the majors came when he was batting seventh. The only spot in the lineup he could be found at more frequently was sixth with four more plate appearances there than he saw at seventh.

Verdict: A+

8. Gary Sanchez proves haters wrong, finishes season as top catcher . . . also slugs 30 home runs
How much explaining do I have to do for this one? He finished as the top catcher (check) and he slugged 33 home runs. What else can I say other than he's the real deal.

Verdict: A+

9. Bryce Harper posts the best season of his young career
So this one is probably not right. In any way. He started off the season really well and certainly turned in an outstanding campaign. But his walk rate was 6 percent lower than that MVP 2015 season, his on-base percent was 47 points lower, his slugging percentage was 54 points lower and the WAR wasn't even close. The injury didn't help, but he clearly wasn't going to top that ridiculously good season. With that said, it was still a really solid season and owners who used my advice to draft Harper probably weren't overly disappointed. I won't fail myself here.

Verdict: D-

10. The Astros will win the World Series
We obviously can't tell yet if I'm right or wrong, but the Astros have made it this far and currently have the third highest odds to win the World Series according to FanGraphs playoff projections. Their lineup is deep, their rotation is solid now that they have a healthy Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers (not to mention the addition of Justin Verlander) and their bullpen has several key arms who could help lead them to playoff success.

Last season I predicted the Cleveland Indians would win the World Series before the season. They lost in extra innings of the seventh game. Maybe the Astros will finally prove my World Series prediction right. Or maybe the Indians will bump them in the ALCS. I'd be shocked if they lost to the Red Sox.

Verdict: B?