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PGA Betting Advice: American Express - FRL and Head-To-Head Selections


Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover first-round leader bets and head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (76-37-7), netting nearly 43 units of profit and a 67% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 16 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and a 55/1 winner last weekend at the Sony Open.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week and will discuss a few first-round leader bets that I believe are returning value to bettors. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports.

Editor's Note: Get our full-season PGA and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive Lineup Optimizer, DFS Tools, and weekly Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

First Round Leader Bets:

We will have to take the week off from the FRL market. Most books don't offer odds with the tournament being held on three different courses over the first three days, but if you are lucky enough to find a place that makes a mistake, target players that are playing Thursday at La Quinta.

 

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider:

*** Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

 

Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long -105

Reasons I Liked the Play: Overweighted course history. Adam Long shocked the world here last season by capturing the title at odds of 400/1. It was his first start at the property, but the American blew past expectations with a one-shot victory over Adam Hadwin and Phil Mickelson. While the success helped to get the American's career on a better trajectory, he proceeded to miss eight of his next 10 cuts. Long is a better player now than he was during that duration of time, but his lack of consistency doesn't leave me overly enthusiastic that we see him provide a repeat result.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: This answer could be provided for every matchup, so I will only give it once. Rotational events are tough to gauge because you can randomly get specific draws eliminated if the conditions go against them at the wrong venue. It makes things much more up in the air, which isn't how I like to handicap head-to-head wagers. On top of that, Cameron Tringale has never been a poster boy for steady results here either. Two top-30 results in 2015 and 2016 helps to highlight his upside, but two missed cuts in 2017 and 2018 to go along with a 51st place showing last season makes him tough to trust. I still believe this line should have been closer to -135, so there is about a four percent edge in terms of win equity.

1.15 Units to win 1.00

 

Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard -120

Reasons I Liked the Play: In my opinion, Brian Stuard has struggled here over the past four seasons because of his lack of birdie-making upside. When I attach an 80% weight to 2019 statistics and 20% calculation onto this year's numbers, Stuard only grades out 139th compared to the field in par-five birdie or better percentage and 92nd for overall birdie rate. Talor Gooch's amounts of 34th in par-five birdie or better percentage and 55th in bridie or better rate aren't exactly ideal either, but it does show a golfer who is more capable of giving himself genuine opportunities to score.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: Despite some of the reduced numbers I have for Brian Stuard across the board, he still grades out as someone I have projected to make the cut. It isn't by much, but the current form he brings to the event doesn't make him a perfect fade target. I'd have flipped these odds upside down from where they are currently, which gives us about a 4.5% edge.

1.00 Units to win 1.00

 

Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110

Reasons I Liked the Play: There is still a chance this makes the Vegas Report this week as my top play, but I hate releasing something that might not even ever get started. Kevin Na was forced to withdraw from the Sony Open last weekend because of a sore neck and is questionable to tee off this weekend in California. A Pro-Am tournament doesn't seem like the best spot to get back into action, as rounds can take over six hours to complete with all the slow play from amateurs. I think there is a chance that Na gives it a go and withdraws shortly after, providing us a chance to claim early victory.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: It still might. My numbers on Na aren't horrible, and it why he has found some success here recently, but he is a volatile option that can either win the tournament if he gets hot or withdraw two holes in if his body doesn't hold up.

1.10 Units to win 1.00

 

Last Week's Results:

It was a solid start to the article last weekend after going 3-2-0 for +1.50 units at the Sony Open. Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas led the way for our correct calls, as we were able to sail smoothly into the final two rounds after Thomas failed to make the cut. I am a big proponent of finding underdog value when possible because it not only helps decrease what we need our long-term win equity to be to break even, but it also is where we typically find our largest contrarian mispricings.

3-2-0 (+1.50 Units)

Tournament

Head-to-Head Bet

Bet

My Picks Finish

Opponents Finish

Result

Total

Sony Open

Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T45 (-1)

MC (+5)

Win

1.00

Sony Open

Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

T32 (-3)

T53 (E)

Win

1.00

Sony Open

Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T38 (-2)

T4 (-9(

Loss

-1.10

Sony Open

Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas

1.00 Units to Win 1.60

3rd (-10)

MC (+3)

Win

1.60

Sony Open

Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini

1.00 Units to Win 1.05

MC (+4)

T21 (-5)

Loss

-1.00

 

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (4-2-1)

+1.85 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament

Head-to-Head Bet

Bet

My Picks Finish

Opponents Finish

Result

Total

Sanderson Farms

Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T18 (-11)

MC (+4)

Win

1.00

Safeway Open

Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T7 (-12)

MC (+2)

Win

1.00

Shriners Open

Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

MC (-1)

61 (-9)

Loss

-1.15

Houston Open

Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley

1.12 Units to Win 1.12

MC (+3)

MC (+3)

Push

0

Mayakoba Classic

Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner

1.00 Units to Win 1.10

T48 (-5)

T76 (+1)

Win

1.10

RSM Classic

Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

T10 (-13)

MC (-3)

Win

1.00

Sony Open

J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+3)

T21 (-5)

Loss

-1.10


2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player

Event

Odds

Finish Position

Cameron Smith

Sony Open

55

1

Joaquin Niemann

Sentry TOC

50

5

Dustin Johnson

Sentry TOC

10

7

Xander Schauffele

ZOZO Championship

25

10


Career Record

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks




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