RADIO
Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 4 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
We now enter the second week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 3, we saw stat lines such as the Denver Broncos tight ends combining for 21 receiving yards, the Los Angeles Rams wide receivers combining for 291 receiving yards, and the New England Patriots running backs combining for 21 rushing yards. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in!
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Improvement Ahead?
These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
New Orleans Saints Tight Ends
Sean Payton & Pete Carmichael Jr.
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 New Orleans Saints | 3.75 | 5.38 | 45.06 | 0.56 |
| Sean Payton Prior (272 games) | 4.81 | 7.21 | 53.03 | 0.46 |
| Pete Carmichael Jr. Prior (192 games) | 5.32 | 7.99 | 60.40 | 0.62 |
| Saints TEs vs. New England Patriots | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
The New Orleans Saints beat the New England Patriots this past week, but in this game the Saints' tight ends weren't involved very much, only seeing two targets. On the season this group has combined for just seven receptions (2.33 per game) on 14 targets (4.67 per game) for 62 receiving yards (20.67 per game) and two receiving touchdowns (0.67 per game). It's pretty much impossible for the Saints' tight ends to have worse numbers than they did this past Sunday and we should expect Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman to be back in the tight end streaming mix in future weeks.
Fantasy players this impacts: Adam Trautman & Juwan Johnson
Chicago Bears Running Backs
Matt Nagy & Bill Lazor
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Chicago Bears | 16.88 | 73.63 | 0.56 | 4.38 | 5.5 | 34.5 | 0.19 |
| Matt Nagy Prior (64 games) | 19.66 | 80.47 | 0.58 | 5.70 | 7.34 | 43.88 | 0.28 |
| Bill Lazor Prior (73 games) | 19.47 | 86.02 | 0.58 | 5.07 | 6.63 | 41.44 | 0.14 |
| Bears RBs vs. Cleveland Browns | 10 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
The Chicago Bears had a rough day against the Cleveland Browns, and it resulted in a poor stat line for David Montgomery and the rest of the Bears backfield. Bears running backs as a whole combined for 10 carries, 34 rushing yards, two receptions, four targets, and 21 receiving yards. After this game, the Chicago Bears running backs have totaled 54 carries (18 per game), 221 rushing yards (73.67 per game), one rushing touchdown (0.33 per game), 12 receptions (four per game), 17 targets (5.66 per game), 75 receiving yards (25 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game) on the season. The per-game averages aren't too far below what we'd expect from a Matt Nagy and Bill Lazor running back group, but still there should be better performances than this past Sunday from Montgomery and company.
Fantasy players this impacts: David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Damien Williams
Baltimore Ravens Running Backs
Greg Roman
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec | RB Tgt | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Ravens | 22.63 | 117.94 | 1.06 | 2.38 | 3.19 | 19.94 | 0 |
| Greg Roman Prior (114 games) | 23.80 | 108.26 | 0.81 | 2.38 | 3.35 | 19.66 | 0.11 |
| Ravens RBs vs. Detroit Lions | 15 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The Baltimore Ravens running backs weren't utilized much in the team's dramatic victory over the Detroit Lions this past weekend, taking 15 carries for 58 rushing yards. On the season, the Baltimore Ravens running backs have now totaled 60 carries (20 per game), 298 rushing yards (99.33 per game), three rushing touchdowns (one per game), five receptions (1.67 per game), seven targets (2.33 per game), and 45 receiving yards (15 per game). Based on this information, there will be a little improvement from the numbers we saw on Sunday, but the season-long per-game averages look to be around what we'd expect from Greg Roman's running backs.
Fantasy players this impacts: Latavius Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Ty'Son Williams
New England Patriots Running Backs
Josh McDaniels
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec | RB Tgt | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Patriots | 21.31 | 102.81 | 0.5 | 5.44 | 7.06 | 46.06 | 0.31 |
| Josh McDaniels Prior (236 games) | 24.32 | 103.95 | 0.85 | 5.16 | 7.10 | 45.06 | 0.28 |
| Patriots RBs vs. New Orleans Saints | 11 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
The New England Patriots running backs could not get anything going against a New Orleans Saints defense that has been fantastic against the run the past few seasons. On the season, the New England Patriots running backs have totaled 63 carries (21 per game), 225 rushing yards (75 per game), two rushing touchdowns (0.67 per game), 23 receptions (7.67 per game), 27 targets (nine per game), and 145 receiving yards (48.3 per game). The Patriots backfield will have another tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense on Sunday Night Football in Week 4, but after that, the schedule lightens up quite a bit. Maybe wait a week before buying low on Damien Harris if you can.
Fantasy players this impacts: Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, James White, Brandon Bolden, J.J. Taylor
Chicago Bears Wide Receivers
Matt Nagy & Bill Lazor
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Bears | 15.38 | 23.25 | 164.06 | 0.81 |
| Matt Nagy Prior (64 games) | 12.48 | 19.58 | 149.95 | 0.84 |
| Bill Lazor Prior (73 games) | 12.60 | 21.47 | 153.37 | 1.19 |
| Bears WRs vs. Cleveland Browns | 3 | 11 | 36 | 0 |
The Chicago Bears struggled in every area on offense, and the team's wide receivers were no exception, combining for three receptions on 11 targets for 36 receiving yards. On the season, the Chicago Bears wide receivers have now totaled 30 receptions (10 per game), 51 targets (17 per game), 261 receiving yards (87 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.33 per game). There should be better performances from the Bears' passing attack in the future than what they showed on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns and now could be a good time to buy low on Allen Robinson.
Fantasy players this impacts: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Marquise Goodwin, Damiere Byrd
Philadelphia Eagles Running Backs
Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Eagles | 17.38 | 84.38 | 0.5 | 3.75 | 6.06 | 27.25 | 0.06 |
| Nick Sirianni Prior (48 games) | 24.08 | 110.33 | 0.83 | 5.85 | 7.31 | 42.42 | 0.17 |
| Shane Steichen Prior (24 games) | 24.08 | 99.33 | 0.54 | 8.29 | 10.17 | 67.46 | 0.21 |
| Eagles RBs vs. Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 29 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
The Eagles refused to get Miles Sanders and the rest of the Eagles running backs involved on Monday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys, giving the backfield a total of three carries. How in the heck do you only give your running backs three carries the entire game? It's baffling.
After this game, the Philadelphia Eagles running backs have totaled 46 carries (15.33 per game), 189 rushing yards (63 per game), one rushing touchdown (0.33 per game), 17 receptions (5.67 per game), 23 targets (7.67 per game), 132 receiving yards (44 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns on the season. It seems unlikely that the Eagles' backs will have more games this season with fewer than five carries, and this could actually be a good buy low opportunity on Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell.
Fantasy players this impacts: Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, Kenneth Gainwell
Decline Ahead?
These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Cleveland Browns Running Backs
Kevin Stefanski & Alex Van Pelt
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Browns | 26.88 | 132.63 | 1.13 | 3.63 | 4.63 | 29.38 | 0.31 |
| Kevin Stefanski Prior (35 games) | 26.4 | 127.51 | 1.09 | 4.26 | 5.31 | 36.14 | 0.17 |
| Alex Van Pelt Prior (32 games) | 24.75 | 114.25 | 0.69 | 4.13 | 5.41 | 31.88 | 0.22 |
| Browns RBs vs. Chicago Bears | 34 | 174 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 87 | 0 |
The Cleveland Browns running backs went off against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, taking 34 carries for 174 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground and catching eight passes on 10 targets for 87 receiving yards through the air. On the season, the Cleveland Browns running backs have totaled 79 carries (26.33 per game), 436 rushing yards (145.33 per game), five rushing touchdowns (1.67 per game), 17 receptions (5.67 per game), 19 targets (6.33 per game), 189 receiving yards (63 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.33 per game). Kevin Stefanski may be the king of utilizing running backs and we should expect both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to have very good fantasy seasons, but this past Sunday was on the higher end of the spectrum of what we should expect from this group on a week-to-week basis.
Fantasy players this impacts: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Demetric Felton, D'Ernest Johnson
Los Angeles Rams Wide Receivers
Sean McVay & Kevin O'Connell
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Rams | 15.81 | 22.81 | 171.75 | 0.75 |
| Sean McVay Prior (112 games) | 13.76 | 21.5 | 179.74 | 0.96 |
| Kevin O'Connell Prior (32 games) | 13.5 | 20.38 | 150.72 | 0.81 |
| Rams WRs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 19 | 29 | 291 | 3 |
The Los Angeles Rams wide receivers have gotten off to a blazing start this season with Matthew Stafford as the quarterback, and this past Sunday continued the trend as they caught 19 passes on 29 targets for 291 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. On the season, the Los Angeles Rams wide receiver corps has now totaled 48 receptions (16 per game), 71 targets (23.67 per game), 768 receiving yards (256 per game), and eight receiving touchdowns (2.66 per game). This wide receiver group is undoubtedly going to be one of the better-producing ones in the NFL given the talent, but there is likely going to be a bit of a drop-off in the per-game efficiency averages in the coming weeks if old trends hold true.
Fantasy players this impacts: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, DeSean Jackson, Van Jefferson
Las Vegas Raiders Running Backs
Jon Gruden & Greg Olson
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Raiders | 24.63 | 101.56 | 1 | 4.63 | 5.94 | 31.44 | 0 |
| Jon Gruden Prior (272 games) | 22.85 | 95.42 | 0.57 | 4.73 | 6.67 | 36.94 | 0.07 |
| Greg Olson Prior (188 games) | 20.96 | 85.73 | 0.49 | 4.96 | 6.56 | 38.07 | 0.07 |
| Raiders RBs vs Miami Dolphins | 31 | 135 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
The Raiders running backs had a nice game against the Miami Dolphins where they carried the ball 31 times for 135 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown on the ground and caught six of 11 passes for 64 receiving yards through the air. After this game, the Raiders running backs have totaled 67 carries (22.33 per game), 221 rushing yards (73.67 per game), three rushing touchdowns (one per game), 17 receptions (5.67 per game), 24 targets (eight per game), 175 receiving yards (58.33 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns on the season. Putting up nearly 200 scrimmage yards is hard to do, and even with a pretty nice upcoming schedule, it's unlikely that the Raiders backfield has another day like this past Sunday anytime soon.
Fantasy players this impacts: Peyton Barber, Kenyan Drake, Josh Jacobs
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