RADIO
Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 5 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
We now enter the fourth week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 4, we saw stat lines such as the Arizona Cardinals running backs combining for 170 rushing yards, the Houston Texans wide receivers getting just 13 targets, and the Miami Dolphins running backs combining for 43 scrimmage yards. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in!
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Improvement Ahead?
These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
New England Patriots Running Backs
Josh McDaniels
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec | RB Tgt | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Patriots | 21.31 | 102.81 | 0.5 | 5.44 | 7.06 | 46.06 | 0.31 |
| Josh McDaniels Prior (236 games) | 24.32 | 103.95 | 0.85 | 5.16 | 7.10 | 45.06 | 0.28 |
| Patriots RBs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | -4 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
The New England Patriots running backs once again land on this list (as expected) after they combined for six carries, -4 rushing yards, nine receptions, nine targets, 81 receiving yards, and zero total touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. On the season, the New England Patriots running backs have totaled 69 carries (17.25 per game), 221 rushing yards (55.25 per game), two rushing touchdowns (0.5 per game), 32 receptions (eight per game), 36 targets (nine per game), 226 receiving yards (56.5 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns. The schedule is about to lighten up for the New England Patriots running backs so now is a great time to buy them while their value is low.
Fantasy players this impacts: Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, James White, Brandon Bolden, J.J. Taylor
Denver Broncos Wide Receivers
Pat Shurmur
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Broncos | 10.5 | 19.56 | 151.69 | 0.88 |
| Pat Shurmur Prior (185 games) | 11.90 | 20.29 | 150.58 | 0.88 |
| Broncos WRs vs. Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 18 | 99 | 0 |
The Denver Broncos wide receivers couldn't get much going against the Baltimore Ravens this past Sunday, combining for seven receptions on 18 targets for 99 receiving yards. After this game, the Denver Broncos wide receivers have totaled 47 receptions (11.75 per game), 70 targets (17.5 per game), 641 receiving yards (160.25 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.5 per game) on the season. While it may not happen next week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, there should be slightly better performances coming in the future for the Broncos wide receivers.
Fantasy players this impacts: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, K.J. Hamler, Diontae Spencer, Kendall Hinton, DaeSean Hamilton
Houston Texans Wide Receivers
Tim Kelly
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Texans | 14.94 | 20.94 | 207.38 | 1.38 |
| Tim Kelly Prior (32 games) | 14.59 | 20.84 | 192.72 | 1.13 |
| Texans WRs vs. Buffalo Bills | 6 | 13 | 50 | 0 |
The Houston Texans got blown out by the Buffalo Bills this past week and the team's wide receivers struggled in particular, combining for six receptions on 13 targets for 50 receiving yards. After this game, the Houston Texans wide receiver room has totaled 45 receptions (11.25 per game), 68 targets (17 per game), 549 receiving yards (137.25 per game), and three receiving touchdowns (0.75 per game) on the season. Tim Kelly's offense has been very good at getting production out of the wide receiver room historically, so there should be better performances in the near future for this group.
Fantasy players this impacts: Brandin Cooks, Anthony Miller, Chris Conley, Danny Amendola, Nico Collins
Miami Dolphins Running Backs
George Godsey & Eric Studesville
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Dolphins | 21.56 | 84.25 | 0.63 | 4.75 | 5.81 | 39.88 | 0.13 |
| George Godsey Prior (32 games) | 25.94 | 102.59 | 0.34 | 4.59 | 6.09 | 32.06 | 0.19 |
| Eric Studesville Prior (4 games) | 22.5 | 79 | 0.5 | 5 | 6.75 | 47.25 | 0.25 |
| Dolphins RBs vs. Indianapolis Colts | 13 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
The Miami Dolphins running backs could not get anything going against the Indianapolis Colts and combined for 13 carries, 27 rushing yards, three receptions, three targets, and 16 receiving yards. After this game, on the season the Miami Dolphins running back room has totaled 66 carries (16.5 per game), 255 rushing yards (63.75 per game), one rushing touchdown (0.25 per game), 17 receptions (4.25 per game), 27 targets (6.75 per game), 97 receiving yards (24.25 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns. Based on the previous history, there should be an improvement in this group's performance but it might not come until Week 6 because next week the Miami Dolphins will be going against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Todd Bowles's shutdown run defense. So for another week or two, there will be a buy-low window on Myles Gaskin and the rest of the Dolphins running backs if you are interested in acquiring them.
Fantasy players this impacts: Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, Salvon Ahmed
Las Vegas Raiders Running Backs
Jon Gruden & Greg Olson
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Raiders | 24.63 | 101.56 | 1 | 4.63 | 5.94 | 31.44 | 0 |
| Jon Gruden Prior (272 games) | 22.85 | 95.42 | 0.57 | 4.73 | 6.67 | 36.94 | 0.07 |
| Greg Olson Prior (188 games) | 20.96 | 85.73 | 0.49 | 4.96 | 6.56 | 38.07 | 0.07 |
| Raiders RBs vs Los Angeles Chargers | 15 | 42 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
Last week we put the Raiders running backs on the 'Decline Ahead?' list after they combined for 31 carries, 135 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, six receptions, 11 targets, and 64 receiving yards. This week they land on the opposite list after they combined for 15 carries, 42 rushing yards, five receptions, five targets, 17 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. After this game, the Raiders running backs have totaled 82 carries (20.5 per game), 263 rushing yards (65.75 per game), three rushing touchdowns (0.75 per game), 22 receptions (5.5 per game), 29 targets (7.25 per game), 192 receiving yards (48 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns on the season. This could be a decent opportunity to buy Josh Jacobs if you are interested in rostering him this season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Peyton Barber, Kenyan Drake, Josh Jacobs
Decline Ahead?
These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Chicago Bears Running Backs
Matt Nagy & Bill Lazor
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Chicago Bears | 16.88 | 73.63 | 0.56 | 4.38 | 5.5 | 34.5 | 0.19 |
| Matt Nagy Prior (64 games) | 19.66 | 80.47 | 0.58 | 5.70 | 7.34 | 43.88 | 0.28 |
| Bill Lazor Prior (73 games) | 19.47 | 86.02 | 0.58 | 5.07 | 6.63 | 41.44 | 0.14 |
| Bears RBs vs. Cleveland Browns | 34 | 168 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
The Chicago Bears running backs were featured in this article series last week in the 'Improvement Ahead?' section after a performance against the Cleveland Browns where they combined for 10 carries, 34 rushing yards, two receptions, four targets, and 21 receiving yards. But this week they find themselves on the opposite side of the list after they combined for 34 carries, 168 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, two receptions, two targets, and 15 receiving yards. On the season, the Chicago Bears running backs have totaled 88 carries (22 per game), 389 rushing yards (97.25 per game), four rushing touchdowns (one per game), 14 receptions (3.5 per game), 19 targets (4.75 per game), and 90 receiving yards (22.5 per game). Based on this information, the Chicago Bears running backs performed better on Sunday than we'd typically expect from a Matt Nagy & Bill Lazor running back room, and the season averages are a little higher on the ground than we are used to seeing as well.
Fantasy players this impacts: David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Damien Williams
Arizona Cardinals Running Backs
Kliff Kingsbury
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec | RB Tgt | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Cardinals | 21.13 | 87.81 | 0.69 | 5 | 6.25 | 34.81 | 0.31 |
| Kliff Kingsbury Prior (32 games) | 19.31 | 84.28 | 0.78 | 4.91 | 6.38 | 38 | 0.31 |
| Cardinals RBs vs. Los Angeles Rams | 30 | 170 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
The Arizona Cardinals running back room was rolling (doing great) against the Los Angeles Rams this past Sunday as they combined for 30 carries, 170 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, six receptions, seven targets, and 35 receiving yards. After this game, the group has totaled 96 carries (24 per game), 427 rushing yards (106.75 per game), four rushing touchdowns (one per game), 23 receptions (5.75 per game), 25 targets (6.25 per game), 166 receiving yards (41.5 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns on the season. Based on this information, it seems that the Cardinals running back room is running on the higher side of what we'd expect from a Kliff Kingsbury running back room, and there could be a dip coming in usage and production in the future for this group.
Fantasy players this impacts: James Conner, Chase Edmonds, Eno Benjamin
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