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Ellis's NFL touchdown predictions for Week 14 (2023) - his fantasy football TD predictions for seven players. “Pie Shop” is an Australian term for scoring a try in rugby, which Ellis applies for touchdowns.
We are 8-2 over our last two Pie Shop articles! This is our best streak yet as we head into fantasy playoff season. Here we predict players to score a touchdown this week. Last week, we selected five players and finished 4-1.
For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.
In this article, I have seven picks from big names to sleeper selections. Ultimately, I am disregarding name value and selecting players who I believe have the best chances of scoring this week. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week 14 Pie Shop.
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Picks (19-11)
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Panthers @ Saints, Sunday 11:00 AM MST/1 PM EST
Last week was the first time Kamara scored a touchdown since Week 8 against the Bears. Kamara's involvement continues to increase and could see even more volume with injuries to Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, and now Derek Carr.
As a result, Alvin Kamara is the focal point of this offense. He now faces a Panthers team that is brutal against running backs. More specifically, this Panthers team allows a league-leading 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game to the RB position. Even though he has only scored once in his last four games against his divisional foe, Alvin Kamara is going to find his way into the end zone this week.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Buccaneers @ Falcons, Sunday 11:00 AM MST/1 PM EST
Speaking of divisional duels, Evans takes on a team that he has historically dominated. In his last four games against the Falcons, Evans has three total touchdowns and 75 or more yards in each game.
As for the matchup, the Falcons have picked up their defense over the last few weeks. Unfortunately for them, star corner A.J. Terrell left the last game with a concussion, putting his availability in question for Week 14. If Terrell is out, Evans is full steam ahead for another big performance.
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
Seahawks @ 49ers, Sunday 2:05 PM MST/4:05 PM EST
I try to avoid picking McCaffrey in these articles as he is a cheat code. However, I love targeting this Seattle defense. I decided to roll with my pick here and add a deeper selection to help even it out.
CMC is incredible. With 17 touchdowns on the season, he faces a Seahawks defense that is allowing 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game to the position. This 49ers team just made a huge statement last week, backing all their talk from their conference championship loss last season. CMC is rolling and this defense can’t keep him contained.
Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)
Vikings @ Raiders, Sunday 2:05 PM MST/4:05 PM EST
To balance out my CMC call, I’m going to make a bold Pie Shop selection. Alexander Mattison has yet to score a rushing touchdown this season until this week. Although I am predicting any form of touchdown, I think he’ll find the end zone on the ground.
After announcing that Joshua Dobbs will remain their starter, it’s clear that this team is floundering at the QB position. As a result, I believe they will want to establish the run and ride Mattison, who has seen 16 or more attempts in three of his last five games.
This team should also find success on the ground as the Raiders allow the eighth-most rushing yards and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game to the RB position. Although Ty Chandler is always a threat to steal touches, I have a feeling this will be more of a Mattison game.
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)
Eagles @ Cowboys, Sunday 6:20 PM MST/8:20 PM EST
I try to have a TE touchdown prediction each week, and last week we hit with Sam LaPorta. Two weeks ago, I selected Ferguson and didn’t succeed; however, I’m going back to the well. After scoring in last week’s shootout win against the Seahawks, Ferguson continues his breakout season.
He now faces an Eagles team in what is the game of the week. The last time these two teams met, Ferguson had seven receptions for 91 yards and a score. The Eagles have maintained their inability to guard the TE, allowing the second-most touchdowns per game to the position. Dak Prescott has been dealing, and Ferguson leads the position in red zone targets with 22 (next is David Njoku with 15).
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Packers @ Giants, Monday 6:15 PM MST/8:15 PM EST
Assuming Aaron Jones returns, he’d be the cherry on top for a team coming off a massive prime-time win against the reigning Super Bowl champs. They now face a Giants team that is in shambles. Thankfully, they should have Tyrod Taylor back if they choose to start him over Tommy Devito.
As for Aaron Jones, it’s been a tough season. The veteran back has dealt with multiple injuries all season. Thankfully, when he has been healthy, he has looked electric and made the most of his opportunities. The Giants are allowing the third-most rushing touchdowns per game to the position and the last time we saw Jones healthy, he received the goal-line carries. It’s probably my boldest call in this article, but I’m rooting for the Walter Peyton Man of the Year nominee to find pay dirt this week.
Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)
Titans @ Dolphins, Monday 6:15 PM MST/8:15 PM EST
Kind of like my McCaffrey selection, this is as close to a “lock” as it gets. We saw how unfair it was for Hill to go against a porous Commanders secondary last week, going for two 60-plus-yard touchdowns. This week, the game should come with a parental guidance warning as the Titans might be worse than the Commanders against the deep ball.
Since trading Kevin Byard, this secondary is floundering. Hill has a touchdown in every game but two this year, both coming in games the Dolphins lost. I don’t think anyone thinks this Dolphins team will fall to Will Levis and a secondary that is allowing the fifth-most yards to the WR position.
Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite player prop selections later this week!
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