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Ellis Johnson's favorite five 2024 NFL season-long player prop bets. His picks cover touchdowns, passing yards, receiving yards, and rushing yards.
Over the last few years, season-long props have become some of my favorite bets to make. I have found that it is easier to play the law of averages when you are playing for the entire season.
Of course, you always run the risk of a player being injured and missing a substantial part of the season. However, that adds some value to any unders that are selected. All of the lines and odds are provided by Bet365.
My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is my third year releasing a season-long prop bet article. Thank you for checking out my work, now let’s talk some props!
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Caleb Williams (QB, CHI)
OVER 3,450.5 passing yards (-110)
I am all aboard the Caleb Williams train. Although many of his actions have caused some controversy, I think he is bringing some much-needed individuality to the position. Both as a personality and on the field, Williams will be making headlines all season.
After being drafted by the Bears, everything we have heard from the team is that Williams was as advertised. Considering what was advertised was a generational talent, that’s saying something. Once the preseason hit, it was clear these reports held water as he diced up opposing defenses.
Since 2010, there have been 12 rookie QBs to surpass this total. These names range from Hall of Fame-caliber players (such as Andrew Luck) to Mac Jones. Interestingly, the last top prospects surpassed that mark (Luck and Trevor Lawrence). Last season, 16 QBs surpassed this mark as well.
Williams has all the talent in the world surrounding him, with Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, and Keenan Allen as his top WRs. The team, combined with his talent, makes me feel quite confident that he’ll follow in the footsteps of the last elite QB prospects and easily pass his current line.
The Bears wanted to see how Caleb Williams would handle pressure in his preseason debut. Well, this will do. Extends the play and fires a dart to Cole Kmet. pic.twitter.com/gP14yWm084
— Chris Emma (@CEmma670) August 10, 2024
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
OVER 27.5 passing touchdowns (-115)
Call me a homer, but I think this line is an absolute smash and is my favorite selection in this article. Over his four-year career, we have seen Burrow have two monster years and two years ending prematurely due to injury. This season, he is returning from a season-ending wrist injury and has participated in his first full NFL training camp and preseason.
The only potential reason that I can think of for this line being as low as it is, is some people being concerned about his wrist injury last season. However, throughout camp and preseason, all we have heard is that Burrow feels great and is ready for this season.
I am surprised this line isn’t at least at 29.5 touchdowns, as in his last two healthy seasons he had 34 and 35 touchdowns, respectively. This year, the Bengals beefed up their offensive line, bringing in Trent Brown and drafting a force of nature in Amarius Mims. It was clear this team’s offseason goal was to keep Burrow upright in 2024.
If this line can improve, we know the Bengals aren’t afraid to air it out, finishing in the top eight of pass attempts in each of the last two seasons. Additionally, the weakest part of this team is its inexperienced secondary. This means there is a chance the Bengals find themselves in more shootouts than in previous seasons.
With Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase both eyeing a new contract, I expect they will both be looking to post career statistics. As a result, I like Higgins over 5.5 touchdowns and Chase over 8.5 touchdowns this season in that order. However, I’ll get two birds stoned and take Burrow’s total touchdowns.
Joe Burrow's first drive of Preseason = Touchdown to Tee Higgins! 🐅 #WHODEY #WEREBACK pic.twitter.com/FpTnxvGH0E
— Cincinnati 💔 (@CincyProblems) August 10, 2024
Diontae Johnson (WR, CAR)
OVER 825.5 receiving yards (+100)
It doesn’t feel great to rely on the Panthers offense, but this line is too juicy to pass up. Johnson is known to be a reception WR and has surpassed this mark in three of his last four seasons. The one season he came short was last year when he only played 13 games and was on pace for 1,000 yards.
Regardless of what you think about Bryce Young, he has to be a step up from the combination of Devlin “Duck” Hodgins, Mason Rudolph, Mitchell Trubisky, and Kenny Pickett. Plus, this entire offseason we have heard head coach Dave Canales focus on two things: running the ball and targeting Johnson.
This team is desperate for playmakers, relying on an aging Adam Thielen, sophomore Jonathan Mingo, and fifth-year collegiate breakout Xavier Legette. Considering this team should be playing from behind, Johnson should manage to volume his way comfortably past 825 yards.
So refreshing to have a guy like Diontae Johnson for Bryce Young pic.twitter.com/yMsqGMBzp7
— Panthers On Tap (@PanthersOnTap) August 24, 2024
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
UNDER 875.5 receiving yards (+110)
It’s terrifying betting against the player who just had one of the best rookie TE seasons of all time. Especially when the team has barely changed, and if anything, up his target share with the departure of Josh Reynolds.
However, in a season where everything seemed to break right for the young TE, he only managed to surpass this line by 14 yards. That worries me. Especially when we know this team wants to run the ball as much as possible.
With both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs taking advantage of one of the best O-lines in the league, I am sure head coach Dan Campbell would run the ball every play if he could. As a result, it’s hard to see things going better for the sophomore TE, and although he may score double-digit touchdowns again, yards may be hard to come by.
brb enjoying some Sam LaPorta highlights
pic.twitter.com/r8BvVu0SmL— Barstool Detroit (@BSMotorCity) July 18, 2024
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
OVER 1000.5 rushing yards (-110)
For my last selection of this article, I’m using my heart along with my head. It might not have as much statistical support as the others, but I think Bijan Robinson is in for a massive season.
This Falcons team is inspiring, especially for fantasy. The gobsmacking move to draft Michael Penix Jr. at the eighth pick overall just secures that this offense will be fantasy-friendly for years to come.
We all know Bijan is talented; however, I think the offensive line is being overlooked. PFF has the Falcons offensive line ranked as the sixth-best line in the league and has their center, Drew Dalman, as their highest-graded run-blocking center in 2023.
I expect the Falcons will run away with this division, hopefully creating positive game scripts for the ground game. If that is the case, Robinson should be all systems go for a massive fantasy season, cracking 1,000 yards rushing on his way.
107 seconds of Bijan Robinson making dudes miss pic.twitter.com/EvcM87uXsu
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 11, 2024
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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