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There are always upsets in the NCAA Tournament. All upsets are not created equal. Lehigh. Hampton, Norfolk State. St. Peter's. Illinois-Chicago. Davidson. All of these double-digit seeds took the tournament by storm and shattered brackets in their wake. Sleepers are one thing. Those are teams that put brackets in shredders across the nation. So which teams might do that this year?
First, let's establish the ground rules. To be a true bracket-buster, it must be a double-digit seed that makes it out of the first weekend. There are some years that this doesn't happen at all, so I'm not saying to use this as gospel and to fill out your brackets by this. However, if one team is to decimate a bracket, it will likely be one of these teams. Do with this information what you will.
In this article, I will be providing you with my bracket busters for the 2023 NCAA tournament. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your brackets. Good luck RotoBallers!
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West Region Bracket Busters
(12) Virginia Commonwealth
I already more than hinted that VCU can knock out St. Mary's. It's not that St. Mary's isn't a good team. It's just that they can be had when they go cold and there's a good chance that VCU is much better than the 12-line that they're on. They get good guard play from Adrian Baldwin, and Brandon Johns and Jalen DeLoach are strong enough to hang with most post players.
UConn would present a problem for the Rams if they are to make it to the second weekend. As we have seen with most of the deep runs from these double-seeded teams, another upset or three usually happens in the same bracket. I think someone would have to knock off at least one of UConn or Kansas for VCU to make a run to the regional final.
(13) Iona
Love him or hate him, any Rick Pitino-coached team is dangerous in March. The Gaels' campus is in New Rochelle, New York. Just north of New York City and about two hours south of Albany on I-87. They will be well-represented at this game. They haven't lost since January 27, so winning is almost second nature to them by now.
The Gaels have four players that average double figures per game, with strong guard play out of Walter Clayton and Daniss Jenkins. Nelly Junior Joseph in a problem in the middle. Iona is one of the few teams that can hang around with UConn, if not beat them outright. If they get past UConn, the route is considerably easier for Iona. They match up well with either St. Mary's or VCU and Kansas in the second weekend. UCLA would pose a huge problem for a Final Four run, but Iona might just mess around and get that far. The problem? Iona has been an upset darling since Pitino got there and hasn't really pulled one yet.
South Region Bracket Busters
(12) Charleston
The school formerly known as "College of" Charleston has the tools to make a run. They beat Virginia Tech early in the season and hung around with North Carolina when they were still a feared team. the Cougars are 18th in the country in points per game with 80.8 and know how to score. Five players average double figures on the season. so a lot of shooters on this team can hurt you.
San Diego State is a tough matchup for the Cougars because of the defense they play. If they can survive that game, they have the type of team to beat Virginia. In order for Charleston to make a deep run though, they are going to need West Virginia to knock off Alabama. Alabama is the same team as Charleston with much better athletes.
(14) UC-Santa Barbara
The Gauchos have a good inside-outside combo of Ajay Mitchell and Miles Norris and they shoot pretty well from the outside (35.3%). Baylor is a deeper team, but they sometimes have lapses. Iowa State was able to beat them three times by forcing them to shoot bad outside shots. USCB has enough size that they might be able to do that, but one of Mitchell or Norris will have to have a monster game and that seems unlikely.
If the Gauchos survive, Creighton is a beatable team, but they are a lot like UCSB. A deep run seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened. Creighton looked toast in December when they lost six straight. The Jays can be had, especially away from the Birdcage.
East Region Bracket Busters
(12) Oral Roberts
Duke may be the hottest team entering the tournament of any major school, but the Eagles haven't lost since January 9. Max Abmas is a veteran of an Oral Roberts team, seeded 15th, that knocked off the Buckeyes in 2021. Now he comes back with a 7-footer in Connor Vanover by his side. The Eagles are a really good shooting team, and the more I look at this, the less I like Duke – scorching hot or not. ORU matches up very well and will be a problem.
If they get past Duke, they will likely get everyone's whipping boy – Tennessee. The loss of Zakai Zeigler didn't make the Vols worse, but it did make them less efficient offensively and defensively. This is another team that Oral Roberts can beat. Heading into the second weekend, the Eagles also match up well with Purdue as Vanover is one of the few guys that Edey can't just shoot right over. A deep run hinges on the Eagles being able to shoot well and control the game, but I could see them making a run to the regional finals.
(14) Montana State
This is tough because Kansas State is tough. Don't worry about their 4-7 true road record. All of that was in one of the toughest conferences in history. RaeQuan Battle will have to contain Markquis Nowell, which won't be easy. Jubrile Belo and Great Osobor can give the Wildcats some trouble on the inside.
This is not one likely to happen, but if it does, the Bobcats are good enough to cause problems for anyone on the bottom of this bracket. They would need someone to knock off Marquette though. Someone needs to convince me that the Golden Eagles aren't the best team in this bracket. How about a Golden Eagles vs. Golden Eagles regional final? It could happen!
Midwest Region Tournament Sleepers
(12) Drake
No, I'm not just taking the easy way out by mentioning all the 12 seeds. Miami lost Norchad Omier in the ACC Tournament. If he's not back, this is a lot less formidable team. Drake did beat Mississippi State back in December, so they aren't completely oblivious to matching up with major conference teams.
This pick all hinges on the play of Tucker DeVries and Roman Penn. The Bulldogs shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc but don't have a huge post presence. That's not a big issue if Omier remains out, but if he's in, this gets a lot tougher for Drake. Still, a team that is that dangerous from three-land can pull upsets. More than one.
If they get out of Miami, I don't like the matchup with Indiana. However, if they get...
(13) Kent State
The Golden Flashes held Houston to 49 points and played them to within five back in November. For the encore in December, they only lost to Gonzaga in Spokane by seven. Even though Kent didn't pull one of those upsets, they proved they are capable of it. Those are two top-ten teams!
Sincere Carry is the best player you've never heard of, and he makes all of those possible for the Flashes. We're about to see if one really good player can lead a team on a tournament run. The shooting of Kent will have to carry them past Indiana, but if it does, they get a pretty good matchup with either Miami or Drake. Beyond that, they flustered Houston once and could do it again.
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