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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 4/21/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
We open this fine week with back-to-back 2-0 nights! The games didn't go exactly as I had expected, but wins are wins I'm starting to get a better feel for how teams are playing, but guys are dropping like flies to COVID or injuries, so it's important to continue to pay attention to each teams' dynamic.
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
As mentioned, it's been a tough start to the season in betting terms, but the team here at RotoBaller is here to give you top-notch analysis. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Wednesday, April 21. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 1-3 (-2.15u)
O/U Record: 7-2 (+4.45u)
Runline Record: 2-4 (-2.1u)
First 5 Record: 2-1-2 (+.76u)
Prop Record: 1-2-1 (-.96u)
2021 Total Record: 13-12-3 (-.28u)
Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics
O/U: 8 | MIN -112 OAK +105
Minnesota: Kenta Maeda; Oakland: Frankie Montas
Maeda doesn't seem to get the respect he deserves but the 33-year-old has been outstanding since joining the Twins last year. He hasn't quite gotten rolling yet, making it out of the fifth inning just once in his first three starts, though he has allowed just five earned runs in 14.2 IP and has a 16/5 K/BB. The righty is definitely getting hit around a bit, but his stuff is working, evidenced by the 32 Chase and Whiff rate. Offensively, we have a Twins lineup missing a pair of starters due to COVID, Andrelton Simmons and Max Kepler. Their double-dip on Tuesday didn't produce outstanding results, as they lost both by a combined 8-0. Coming into Tuesday, they mashed RHP pretty hard, posting a .732 OPS with a .167 ISO but this lineup is a bit of a wild card for the time being, coming off the short layoff.
Montas had a rocky first outing but settled down quite nicely, allowing just one run (solo homer) over his next two starts (12 IP) with a 12/2 K/BB. His metrics seem to hint at a bit of regression coming though, as his K%, xBA, xSLG, and xERA all hover around the 50th percentile. The A's offense put up seven in Tuesday's game one, boosting their numbers against RHP, as they had just a .652 OPS with a 95 wRC+ coming into the series. Matt Olson and Mitch Moreland were the key catalysts, driving in all seven runs. However, the rest of the lineup had just two hits; not exactly promising.
I'm hitting on the Minnesota offense while they're down and banking on Oakland's lineup to come back to reality from Tuesday. Both Montas and Maeda are solid arms and when they're on, their best work comes early so I'll look to keep bullpens out of this one and enjoy a low-scoring first half of baseball.
Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-115, BetMGM) 1 Unit
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 8 | PHI -120 SFG +107
San Francisco: Anthony DeSclafani; Philadelphia: Zach Eflin
Desclafani has been stout so far this year, making three starts while allowing just two runs with a 16/4 K/BB over 17 IP. The righty might be trending downwards though, so his metrics say. An average exit velocity of 92 mph combined with Desclafani’s high 55 Zone % hints that guys are starting to zone in and his 1.06 ERA is in jeopardy. The lineup is likely to be without Brandon Belt (quad) which hurts their chances against a RHP. So far this year, they’ve held a .297 wOBA with just an 87 wRC+, along with a 29 K% as a team, and those numbers tumble a bit on the road.
All things considered, Eflin has been a solid arm for the Phillies. Aside from a three-run first inning in his second start, the 27-year-old has allowed only three more runs in his 20 IP. His control has been outstanding and he’s making guys, however, when they don’t miss, they’re hitting him hard. He’ll look to limit that Wednesday. Offensively, the Phils will be without Jean Segura (quad), who left early Tuesday, but may get Didi Gregorius (elbow) back. They have a .731 OPS with a 102 wRC+ against RHP at home, but the .328 BABIP combined with a 10 BB% makes me believe this offense is set to thrive if they stay healthy.
The Phillies totally collapsed in the eighth inning of Tuesday’s game, giving up six runs, but that was all on one pitcher. They’ll be anxious to get revenge on Desclafani and they have the numbers at home to do it. I’m hitting First 5 ML as the play, but I’ll also be hitting full game on the Fightin’ Phils.
Pick: Philadelphia F5 ML (-120 BetMGM) 1 Unit
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