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Analysis of five fantasy baseball starting pitchers to draft in the middle rounds. Potential 2022 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued SP to target in drafts.
Welcome officially to the 2022 fantasy baseball season! Now that an MLB deal is in place, a lot more fantasy drafts will be taking place -- and we're here as always to guide you through it. Once you reach the middle rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players with upside that can provide a great return on value. You can afford to start taking a risk or two on a variety of different players, including emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even talented players who may have some playing time concerns. The early rounds are critical and the late rounds are where you can take your chances on dart-throw sleepers, but the middle rounds can absolutely make or break your roster as those picks are going to make up roughly half of your starting lineup.
Today, we're looking at some middle-round starting pitchers for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a mid-round draft target that you're going to want to prioritize? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2022 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all of our in-depth 2022 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2022 Draft Kit.
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Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Charlie Morton bounced back in his first year in Georgia, posting a 14-6 record, 3.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.7 BB%, and 28.6 K% in 185.2 innings. His 3.18 FIP backs up his success, and he's now produced a sub-3.60 FIP the last six seasons, with an xERA below 3.80 three of the past four. His success stems from a curveball with six more inches of horizontal movement than average and generated a 40.1 Whiff%. He pairs his curve with a four-seamer that often hits 96 MPH, increasing its average velocity by about 2 MPH from 2020. He should be able to keep his K-rate up, considering he produced an elite 30.9 CSW%.
His less-than-ideal chase rate might scare some fantasy managers. However, hitters didn't make much contact when they did chase, as Morton ranked eighth in O-Contact% at 54.5%. He also did an excellent job of fooling hitters in the zone, ranking fourth in Z-Swing% at 64.6%. He turned 38 in November but has shown no signs of slowing down and should be ready for Spring Training after experiencing a playoff-ending shin injury. The Braves will be a good team again, making Morton a possible four-category contributor. He's being drafted 91st overall, which is pretty late when guys like Alek Manoah and Dylan Cease are going before him.
Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Houston Astros pitcher Justin Verlander missed last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2020. The 39-year-old is expected to be ready by Opening Day, whenever that might be. He was terrific in his entire last season as a starter, owning a 2.58 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 300:42 K: BB over 223 innings during 2019. Verlander will be limited at first as he's thrown just six innings since July 2020. The Astros are confident that Verlander will return to form as they signed the veteran to a one-year, $25 million contract during the offseason.
Cutter projections are on board with Verlander to come back in 2022, projecting a 12-7 record, 15 quality starts, 3.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 193 strikeouts over 165 innings. According to Rotoballer's Expected Draft Values, Cutter's projections have Verlander roughly fair value at his 111 ADP. Verlander reportedly looked impressive before the MLB lockout and is expected to enter Spring Training whenever it starts with no restrictions.
Chris Bassitt, New York Mets
New York Mets pitcher Chris Bassitt has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons. He posted a 17-6 record along with a 2.90 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 214:56 K: BB across 220 1/3 innings. He was traded to the New York Mets in exchange for J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller in March. The 32-year-old was impressive last year and became a first-time All-Star in 2021. The former A's right-hander increased his K% 21.1% in 2020 to 25% in 2021, relying on his sinker, cutter, and four-seamer to put hitters away. In mid-August, he had surgery for a facial fracture in his right cheek and returned to the mound on September 23rd, throwing only six innings in his final two starts.
What should fantasy managers expect from Bassitt in 2022? Steamer is projecting a 4.02 ERA, 22.5K%, 6.8 BB%, 41.8 GB%, and 4.06 FIP over 31 starts. Despite how well Bassitt has pitched in the last two seasons, his career's 5.4% barrel rate and 0.91 HR/9 puts his projected ERA closer to 4.00. Bassitt is expected to be the team's No.3 starter behind aces Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. According to Rotoballer's Expected Draft Values, Steamer's projections have Bassitt below fair value at his current NFBC ADP of 140.
Pablo Lopez, Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez was on his way to another solid season in 2021 before it was cut short in July. A rotator cuff strain in his pitching arm forced him to the 10-day IL and then a setback during rehab eventually resulted in a move to the 60-day IL. It was an unfortunate turn of events for Lopez and fantasy stakeholders, as he posted a solid 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and was a mid-rotation anchor for both parties. He upped his strikeout rate for a fourth straight year, this time to 27.5%.
Among all starters with at least 50 innings pitched last season, Lopez was 19th in K-BB% at 21.3%, just ahead of Julio Urias and Shohei Ohtani. He was also 19th with a 3.49 SIERA. There isn't much of an injury discount with Lopez based on his early NFBC ADP of 114 overall. He is being taken ahead of pitchers with more prolonged injury records such as Carlos Rodon and Lance McCullers. While he may never have the ceiling of an ace, Lopez is a relatively safe arm to lock in for roto leagues and is especially valuable in points leagues.
-- Pierre Camus - RotoBaller
Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics pitcher Sean Manaea posted an 11-10 record, 3.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and a career-high 194 strikeouts over 179 1/3 innings in 2021. The 30-year-old owned a solid 25.7 K% but had trouble keeping the ball in the yard, evidenced by allowing a career-worst 1.25 HR:9 last season. To put hitters away, he relied primarily on three pitches, a sinker, changeup, and curveball. The 30-year-old could join the next tier in starters if he's able to continue to rack up the strikeouts, limit the home runs, and keep up his impressive low walk rate (last year's 5.4 BB% was in the 89th percentile).
Cutter projects the lefty to own a 3.84 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 15 quality starts, and 158 strikeouts over 166 frames in 2022. According to Rotoballer's Expected Draft Values, Cutter's projections for Manaea put him roughly fair value at his ADP of 158. Manaea is a solid mid-round pick that should provide stable ratios and excellent strikeout totals for fantasy managers in 2022.
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