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Mid-Round Draft Values - Quarterbacks

Once you reach the mid-to-late rounds of drafts, everyone wants to draft high-upside picks that can provide a great return on value. You can afford to take risks on a variety of different players, including prospects, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even skilled players with potential playing time concerns.

It's essential to have at least a handful of sleeper targets at each position heading into your fantasy football drafts, no matter the format. Today, we're looking at some late-round quarterbacks for you to consider drafting this season.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific NFL players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2021 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 300+ of our 2021 player outlooks, along with many other premium articles and tools available exclusively in our 2021 Draft Kit.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford has had a couple of rough seasons in Detroit. In 2019, he sat out half the season with a back injury. In 2020, he played most of his games without his number one WR Kenny Golladay. Now, he finds himself in Los Angeles playing for one of the most creative offensive minds in the game in Sean McVay. Aside from 2017, the Rams have generally been a pass-heavy team under McVay. Jared Goff threw for over 4,600 yards in both 2018 and 2019. If Stafford is fully healthy and the Rams' offense is clicking, we could see him throw for over 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, as Goff did in 2018 (QB8). However, because he doesn't offer much in terms of a rushing floor, Stafford's upside is likely capped as a low-end QB1 this season.

-- Adam Koffler

 

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Running quarterbacks have been called a cheat code but they’re more like the clearest path to success. You’re not cheating if you grab one or two of them -- you’re cheating yourself if you don’t. And the fantasy math is far too obvious to be a code. Jalen Hurts, entering his second year, might be the most undervalued dual-threat. He showed what he can do as a starter at the end of 2020, spurring the Eagles to trade Carson Wentz.

Ignore the first three-quarters of last season, when Hurts was still learning the offense. Once he became the starter, he averaged 23 fantasy points per game over the final four weeks. In a full year, that would have put him above Russell Wilson and almost at Deshaun Watson’s level.

This could be another case where such extrapolation isn’t crazy. Much of Hurts’ late-season value came from the 68 yards per game he averaged on the ground, a skill that stabilizes his fantasy floor. Even in his worst game as a starter, he scored a respectable 16.3 fantasy points. Though his passing-efficiency metrics were ugly, they should be evaluated against his aggressive depth-of-target numbers. What’s more, young running QBs often sharply improve their accuracy as they adjust to facing pro defenses, notes ESPN’s Bill Barnwell. Hurts gets a favorable environment to do just that, with an offensive line due for better health, likely Year Two improvement from slot receiver Jalen Reagor, and a new top weapon in first-round draft choice DeVonta Smith.

-- Josh Friedman

 

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

The first-overall draft pick in 2020 is returning this season after tearing his Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL), Medial Cruciate Ligament (MCL), and partially tearing his Posterior Cruciate Ligament (PCL) in his left knee during Week 11. Over the first 11 weeks of his career, Burrow was the QB16. Despite his early departure, he ended the season with the seventh-most passing yards per game (one spot ahead of Aaron Rodgers) and averaged the third-most pass attempts per game. However, what was really holding him back for fantasy was Cincinnati's abysmal 1.2 passing touchdowns per game (27th in the league).

Burrow showed enough in the first 11 weeks to prove he was the real deal. The team has since added his favorite college target, Ja'Marr Chase, and maintained their mediocre defense that will bleed points to their opposition. Together, it is clear Burrow has a path to be a top-12 quarterback in 2021. Although offensive line play remains an issue, Burrow has the weapons and the talent to produce QB1 numbers and is worth consideration for those that wait on quarterbacks.

-- Ellis Johnson

 

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

After completing an illustrious college career, Trevor Lawrence was a slam dunk first overall pick for the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2021 NFL draft. Lawrence completed 66.6% of his passes for 10,098 yards with 90 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in 40 career games at Clemson. He also totaled 943 rushing yards on 231 attempts (4.1 yards per carry) and 18 touchdowns over his three seasons as a starter. Now that he is in the NFL, Lawrence finds himself in a unique situation. Jacksonville returns all five offensive linemen, two of their top receivers (D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault Jr.), and a 1,000-yard rusher (James Robinson). They also added wide receiver Marvin Jones in free agency and drafted Lawrence's teammate at Clemson, Travis Etienne, in the first round.

Jacksonville also cleaned house with their coaching staff, hiring Urban Meyer from the collegiate ranks/broadcast booth and Darrell Bevell as their offensive coordinator. Because of that, we have no idea what Jacksonville's offense will look like during his rookie season. Trevor Lawrence is currently being drafted at QB15, which is a great representation of his floor as a high-end QB2 for the upcoming fantasy season. Jacksonville's defense is still going through growing pains, which could lead to numerous games where Lawrence has to air it out to keep the game close. A 4,000 yard passing season with 30+ touchdowns is well in his range of outcomes. Don't be surprised if passing volume and a slew of weapons have Lawrence in the top-10 quarterback rankings at the end of the season, exceeding his current draft standing.

-- Dan Fornek

 

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill has been lights out since he was freed from the Adam Gase prison of ineptitude, and he has been a savior for the Tennessee Titans after it became clear that former second overall pick Marcus Mariota was not the answer. Tannehill got the start in Week 7 of the 2019 season and never looked back. He finished as the QB3 over the remainder of that season and led the NFL in passer rating (117.5), yards per attempt (9.6), and yards per completion (13.6) en route to the Titans' appearance in the AFC Championship game. Tannehill followed that up in 2020 with a division-winning record of 11-5, and he showcased his ability to elevate his game in crunch time by leading the league in game-winning drives (six) and comeback wins (five).

Last season, Tannehill finished as the QB7 and had an impressive seven rushing touchdowns to go along with his 33 touchdowns through the air. This season, Tannehill looks to take an even bigger leap forward due to the addition of Julio Jones to the receiving corps. Derrick Henry will see fewer eight-man fronts, which will make the run-game even deadlier and improve the effectiveness of play-action. Defenses won't be able to key in on A.J. Brown, which will result in a ton of mismatches and easier throws for Tannehill. And of course, Julio himself is an elite talent and a monster upgrade from Corey Davis, and his addition should naturally improve Tannehill's production.

Currently, Tannehill is going as the QB12 in ADP, which is an insult to how well he has been playing. He was QB3 in 2019 when he took over and QB7 last year, and now he gets Julio Jones, yet somehow he is being drafted as a borderline QB1. If I pass on the elite QBs early, Tannehill will be a target of mine in most drafts. QB12 is only his floor, and we love drafting guys at their floor.

-- Frank Dyevoich



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