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Justin's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings lineup picks for LoL Worlds on 10/19/23. His tournament analysis, top LoL value plays and eSports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate everyone, the opening day of the World Championship Main Event. Worlds 2023 has gotten off to an exciting start with some unexpected outcomes resulting in the past week during the play-in stage. We now enter the main event portion, which will consist of 16 teams participating in a Swiss-style format. The new format should make this World Championship more exciting than previous tournaments. This is how it will work:
All 16 teams will start at 0-0 records and slowly work their way through the Swiss-style format based on the results of their matches. The eight winners will face off against each other, while the eight losers will do the same. Teams with three wins will advance to the knockout stage, while teams with three losses are eliminated from the tournament. Qualification and Elimination matches will be best of three format; all other matches will be best of one format.
This article will consist of my power rankings, analysis, and lineup picks for the Main Stage Event opening slate on DraftKings that locks at 1:00 AM EST on Thursday, October 19, 2023. If you have any questions about the slate or anything, please reach out to me on X @OhMyDyr or tag me in the RotoBaller Esports Premium chat. Let's jump right into things and good luck RotoBallers!
Worlds 2023 Main Event Power Rankings
JDG the Clear Favorites?
JDG is currently +125 to win Worlds, and for good reason. They occupy the S-tier by themselves because this team has already shown international success this season, already capturing the 2023 MSI Championship back in May. This wasn't the only success they had this year; finishing first in the 2023 Spring Regular Season & Playoffs (which qualified them for MSI), second in the 2023 Summer Regular Season, and capturing the 2023 Summer Playoffs top spot to represent China (LPL) as their #1 Seed.
This team finished top-four last year at Worlds and made huge upgrades to their MID & ADC positions, adding GEN.G Ruler and TES Knight to their team. If you want a major sports analogy, this team is like the Golden State Warriors with Kevin Durant!
Can the A-Tier Contend with JDG?
I believe everyone in this A-Tier has viable paths to winning this year's World Championship. For GEN.G (+400), they look to build on their top-four finish last year at Worlds after a successful campaign in Korea (LCK). This team had huge question marks after Ruler/Lehends left a huge void in last year's offseason. That was easily put to bed after the duo of Peyz/Delight dominated the LCK this year.
T1 (+700) is a team that should never be counted out, especially with Faker still hunting for his fourth World Championship. T1 last year eliminated JDG, albeit a much weaker version. Good to note that this T1 team still has the same roster and an extra year of playing time together than most of their competition.
LNG (+600) & BLG (+900) are two other teams that come from the LPL (arguably the strongest region in the world). These teams were not at Worlds last year; however, the LPL teams that did represent were both able to make the top eight. I believe it would be a huge disappointment if these teams couldn't at least replicate that result.
How About the Rest of the Competition?
Unfortunately, I am not sure if there is a DRX Cinderella story team this year. If there was, it most likely would come from the B-Tier which does have KT Rolster (+1200), Dplus KIA (+1400), Weibo Gaming (+1200) & G2 Esports (+2500). KT Rolster had an amazing year, finishing 30-6 overall in the regular season and third place in both LCK playoffs.
Dplus KIA is a team that is a few years removed from a World Championship, while Weibo Gaming and G2 Esports enter the tournament with solid rosters. However, a bunch of these C and D-Tier teams will be happy if they can win two games during the Swiss-style format. I just don't see any path to a Championship for the seven remaining teams (Fnatic, Cloud9, MAD Lions, Team Liquid, BDS, NRG, and GAM Esports).
Favorite Outright Bet: T1 World Champs Without JD Gaming (+600)
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Worlds DFS Predictions & DFS Plays - Main Event Day 1
We have eight matchups today, so that makes for a very strong player pool in DFS!
1:00 AM: T1 (-1600) vs. TL (+700)
T1 in principle should blow the doors off Team Liquid here, as you can see by their odds to win the match at -1600. I have little faith in NA this year in upsetting an LCK or LPL opponent, and that starts with the opening match. TL surprisingly for a team that was trying to emulate an LCK playstyle, were one of the more bloody teams in NA. With that being said, T1 projects well; however, you will have to pay a hefty price. Outside of Faker, the rest of the team projects to score top 3-4 at their respective positions.
Prediction: T1 Win
Top T1 plays: Gumayusi, Keria, Team Slot
2:00 AM: C9 (-125) vs. MAD (-110)
This match should be a close one. Both teams faced off back in 2021 at MSI where they each took a game off each other. Unfortunately, rosters have slightly changed, but I do think that outcome is just as coin flip as the last time they met. Both these teams project very well in wins and I expect Cloud9 players to be very popular tomorrow because of their prices and greater potential upside. I believe that this game could be pivotal since their salaries allow you to get some of the more expensive favorites on the slate into your lineups. Do not be afraid to stack either side today if playing multiple lineups.
Prediction: MAD Win
Top MAD plays: Elyoya, Carzzy, Hylissang
Top C9 plays: Fudge, Blaber, EMENES, Zven
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3:00 AM: GEN.G (-4000) vs. GAM (+950)
GAM were able to make their way through the play-in stage, but this matchup will be something they have yet to see. GEN.G should win this game with ease; however, I am not sure if they can pay off their steep prices. Peyz is someone who can pop off big for 10+ kills and score well, and in these best-of-1 matchups, you want to find ceiling players.
Prediction: GEN.G Win
Top GEN.G plays: Peyz, Team Slot
4:00 AM: JDG (-2000) vs. BDS (+750)
Here is the other play-in stage participant who was able to make it to the main event; however, they also get a tougher test. It is a little shocking that the World's favorites don't have the highest odds of winning their opening match; however, I think JDG proves why they should be. Like I said earlier in the article, this team is practically an All-Star team, and BDS looked very shaky throughout the play-in stage. JDG doesn't project as well as I would like, especially given their prices; however, all of these players can have huge games. Don't be afraid to sprinkle in some one-offs of some of the best players on the planet.
Prediction: JDG Win
Top JDG plays: Kanavi, Knight, Ruler, Team Slot
5:00 AM: G2 (+125) vs. DK (-175)
Internationally, both these teams die a ton. On top of that, this game is slated to be a very competitive match given the odds. This makes this game, very similar to C9 vs MAD, a very pivotal one. These teams also love to banter online with each other, and this could add extra motivation to this early matchup. I am a big fan of rostering both sides for MME, and G2 is very appealing since this feels like the strongest EU team that has been sent to Worlds in quite a while. Deft will be looking to repeat his performance from the last Worlds, and I think that is the difference in this matchup. Prediction: DK Win
Top G2 plays: BrokenBlade, Yike, Caps, MikyX
Top DK plays: Canyon, Showmaker, Deft
6:00 AM: NRG (+500) vs. WBG (-900)
NRG had a crazy run during the NA playoffs and it was very enjoyable to watch this unfold; however, I think WBG put things into perspective for them. This game I believe plays out very slowly with WBG dominating control of the map, making me like their team slot a lot. Did I forget to mention that we get TheShy back at Worlds??? I'm not sure I will have any interest in playing him, but as a fan of the game, it will be amazing to see him once again! They are fairly priced, so I would prefer to play them in small stacks.
Prediction: WBG Win
Top WBG plays: Xiaohu, Light, Crisp, Team Slot
7:00 AM: FNC (+350) vs. LNG (-600)
LNG feels like a team to be overweight on here. They project well, and we know that games versus FNC usually tend to be bloody. FNC should be happy to have Oscarinin back from his hand surgery, but I don't think it is enough in this matchup. I don't think the acquisitions of Noah/Trymbi push FNC to a tier where they can contend with some of the best teams, which include LNG. This LNG took JDG (the favorites of the tournament) to five games, not once but twice. GALA was an animal last Worlds, and I expect no less from him this tournament. He and Scout project for some of the highest scores on the slate!
Prediction: LNG Win
Top JDG plays: Zika, Tarzan, Scout, GALA, Hang (prioritizing the last 3)
8:00 AM: BLG (-138) vs. KT (+100)
This is a crazy matchup to end Day 1. We have another coinflip matchup, this time with two top-tier teams. This one is probably the hardest matchup for me to decipher. I feel like if BLG were to win, they would have to control the tempo and try to limit fights where Aiming can take over this game. On paper, these rosters look very similar in composition, outside of their junglers.
My biggest problem for BLG is that they would much prefer a meta where their jungler could have more skill expression through carry-oriented jungler champions. With the meta not being in their favor, and with KT being able to funnel everything into the Aiming train, I think KT could steal a big win here for the LCK. I will have interest in both teams; however, I will be more inclined to play KT, who I also believe have higher ceilings.
Prediction: KT Win
Top BLG plays: Bin, Yagao, Elk
Top KT plays: Kiin, Cuzz, BDD, Aiming, Lehends, Team Slot (prioritizing Aiming in all KT stacks)
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Summary
- TLDR: Three key matches can go either way, which makes both sides very viable and appealing for MME. Those matches would be C9/MAD, G2/DK & BLG/KT.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite teams today are KT, LNG, and DK. You should be able to find a bunch of great stacks together, but don't be afraid to cycle in C9/MAD stacks to help with salary.
- Cash Stacks: I don't recommend cash for best-of-1 slates, especially with how much added variance we get with eight Bo1s (versus five that we typically see on a LEC or LCS slate).
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