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Hello folks, and welcome back to Horse For The Course! Despite its lack of star power, the Honda Classic provided some great entertainment and storylines, as Chris Kirk outlasted Eric Cole in a sudden-death playoff to win at PGA National. While Honda will be ending its sponsorship of this longstanding tournament next year, I think golf fans hope that we'll continue to see this event in some shape or form.
There's no concern about elite headliners this week, as the world's best golfers are set to assemble for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, in what's the latest tournament in the PGA Tour's new "Designated" event series.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our excellent PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational
It's hard to believe that Mr. Palmer has now been gone for almost seven years. Despite the King's absence, the annual event that carries his name and is held at his beloved Bay Hill Club & Lodge has continued to thrive since his passing.
While the API has continued to consistently draw a strong field since Arnie's death in 2016, this year's edition is flat out major-championship-like, thanks to the event's "Designated" status as one of the PGA Tour's new elevated events. Thanks to the alluring combination of the API's tradition - and a prize purse that has swelled to $20 million - the entirety of the world's best golfers will be teeing it up in Orlando this week.
The defending API champion, Scottie Scheffler, has already staked his claim as the world's best player with a win at the WM Phoenix Open a few weeks ago, though the man he beat in Phoenix, Jon Rahm, came right back with a victory at Riviera the following week. Scheffler will try to defend yet another title this week against an elite group of competitors that includes the dominant Rahm, Bay Hill savant Rory McIlroy, and a full roll call of the game's top players. Not only will this field be forced to tussle with each other, but they'll also be faced with a daunting Bay Hill layout, as well as weather conditions that are expected to be blustery for a couple of days. This is gonna be a great event both to watch and to construct PGA DFS lineups for!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Par 72 - 7,466 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Designed By: Dick Wilson (Arnold Palmer Renovations)
Arnold Palmer fell in love with this course over 50 years ago and it still holds up in the modern era. Like lots of courses we see during the Florida Swing, water and sand are prominent at Bay Hill. It's long at just over 7,400 yards, with some tee shots requiring lay-ups and some of the schedule's most penal rough guarding the fairways.
While distance is certainly a plus when it comes to navigating a course of this length, Bay Hill at its core is a second-shot golf course and those approaches often require longer irons than we normally see on the PGA Tour schedule. One of the reasons Tiger Woods dominated at Bay Hill throughout the years is his phenomenal iron game from 200-plus yards out. We usually see this tournament play as one of the 10 most difficult courses on the Tour schedule, but while it's hard, it is still possible for golfers to go low here.
Because of the layout's difficulty, as well as the often windy conditions, we'll want to zero in on golfers that have the ability to scramble and avoid bogeys. Due to that fact, I'll be giving weight to a player's track record in major championships and on difficult golf courses. We can also sprinkle in some consideration to putting performance on fast Bermuda greens, as we can expect Bay Hill's putting surfaces to once again be firm and fast.
Recent API Winners & Scoring Info
- 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
- 2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
- 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
- 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
- 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
- Average Winning Score Last Five Years: -10
The Horse
Rory McIlroy
- Event Scoring Average: 70.31 (Eight career starts)
- Notable Course History: T10 (2021), T5 ('20), T6 ('19), Win ('18), T4 ('17)
- DraftKings Price: $10,600 FanDuel Price: $11,900
It's no surprise that Rory McIlroy has thrived on a golf course that consistently demands major-championship-caliber excellence from tee to green. The four-time major winner slipped on the winners' red cardigan in 2018 and has been an annual mainstay at the top of the API leaderboard, posting four additional top-10 finishes at Bay Hill since 2017.
McIlroy leads this week's field of entrants in both API career scoring average (70.31) and career SG: Total in the event (+51.24). His mastery from T2G has helped him to succeed on this 7,400+ yard brutish Bay Hill layout. The 33-year-old remains the longest player on the PGA Tour (first in Driving Distance L50) off the tee and he truly has few peers with driver in hand.
After a brilliant 2022 campaign that he closed with consecutive wins, Rory opened his 2023 calendar year with a victory over a solid field in Dubai. His two 2023 starts in the U.S. - T29 Genesis & T32 WMPO - haven't gone as well. However, those middling results are no fault of his ball-striking, as he's gained a combined 14.7 strokes T2G across his stateside outings.
McIlroy's recent underwhelming results can be traced directly to a putter than can safely be classified as ice cold. He lost a massive 4.8 strokes on the greens at Riviera two weeks ago and was -3.3 with the flat stick at TPC Scottsdale. While a return to Bay Hill's Bermuda putting surfaces doesn't guarantee improvement, we should expect at least a small step in the right direction for McIlroy on the greens this week.
The Ponies
Max Homa
- Event Scoring Average: 72.33 (Three career starts)
- Notable Course History: T17 ('22), T10 ('21), T24 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $9,700 FanDuel Price: $11,600
In the past, my Max Homa playbook has been fairly West Coast-centric, as four of his six career PGA Tour victories have come in the state of California. While Homa has continued to roll during the West Coast swing again this year with a victory at Torrey Pines and a near-miss at Riviera, I think he's demonstrated enough growth as a player to allow us to consider him in events such as this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Despite his reputation as the Cali King, Homa has quietly logged some rock-solid results at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in recent years. The social media darling has now piled up three-straight top-25 finishes at the API and gained a combined 18.02 strokes total across his last three appearances in the Florida event.
Homa heads to the 2023 edition in sublime form and with his confidence level steadily growing, as it seems as though the only thing that was keeping him from being one of the best players in the world was his lack of belief in himself to do so. In four starts this calendar year, he has a win and two top-three finishes against elite competition, including standing toe-to-toe with Jon Rahm at Riviera two weeks ago.
Despite his underwhelming track record in major championships, Homa has historically played well on tough golf courses and in bad weather conditions. In addition to wins at Torrey Pines and Riviera, he has logged victories at Quail Hollow and at TPC Potomac in brutal weather. His average strokes gained per round actually increases by .438 strokes on difficult layouts and by 1.24 strokes in heavily windy conditions.
Matt Fitzpatrick
- Event Scoring Average: 71.57 (Eight career starts)
- Notable Course History: T9 ('22), T10 ('21), T9 ('20), 2nd ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $8,800 FanDuel Price: $10,300
Coming off a true breakthrough 2022 campaign that included his first major championship victory at the U.S. Open, Matt Fitzpatrick has sputtered out of the gate a bit in 2023. After posting a T7 in the year's opener at Kapalua, Fitzpatrick has missed the cut in two of his last three starts. The culprit has been his inability to dial in the irons and he's now lost strokes on Approach in his last seven measured outings.
While the form is undoubtedly concerning, Bay Hill stands out as a legitimate environment where the Englishman could break out of his slump. The legendary Florida track has been very kind to Fitzy in recent years, as he's reeled off four straight top-10 finishes in the API, a stretch that was highlighted by a runner-up effort in 2019.
Like the aforementioned Homa, Fitzpatrick's success at Bay Hill can likely be traced to his stellar ability to handle both tough golf courses and less-than-ideal weather conditions. In last year's API, he demonstrated his capacity to navigate both while carding the only bogey-free round of the day in brutal Saturday conditions.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Keith Mitchell
- Event Scoring Average: 72.31 (Four career starts)
- Notable Course History: T5 ('20), T6 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $8,000 FanDuel Price: $9,700
"Killa Keith" heads to Bay Hill in sterling form. Fresh off a T5 at the Genesis in his most recent outing, Mitchell has now recorded top-five finishes in two of his last three starts.
Since knocking the winter rust off with a missed cut at the Sony to open the year, the UGA alum has been humming along. Looking absolutely dialed with his swing to this point, Mitchell has gained an average of 4.7 strokes T2G over his last five starts. That excellence has been spurred on by his elite consistency off the tee, as he grades out second in this elite API field in SG: OTT (L50).
He'll have a terrific opportunity to keep the good vibes rolling this week on a Bay Hill layout where he's found success in the past. Mitchell scored back-to-back top-six finishes at the API in 2019-20. The Tennessee native is notoriously a better putter on Bermuda greens such as he'll see this week at Bay Hill. With his current T2G form, a spike putting week might be all that's needed for Mitchell to score his first victory since the 2019 Honda Classic.
Tommy Fleetwood
- Event Scoring Average: 71.50 (Six career starts)
- Notable Course History: T20 ('22), T10 ('21), T3 ('19), T10 ('17)
- DraftKings Price: $7,500 FanDuel Price: $9,600
One of the most consistent golfers in the world over the last five years, Tommy Fleetwood's game hit the skids during the post-COVID restart and his struggles lingered into 2021. However, Fleetwood managed an underrated bounce-back campaign last year by logging nine top-25 finishes in 17 starts on the PGA Tour in 2022, as well as a pair of top-five results in major championships (PGA & The Open).
The Englishman will look to continue his quest to rejoin the game's elite players this week at a Bay Hill golf course that's been very good to him in the past. Across six career starts in the API has recorded three top-10 finishes and failed to play the weekend on just one occasion.
The 32-year-old has been rather quiet to this point in 2023, but his most recent outing - a T20 at the Genesis Invitational - was also his best, which indicates that things are trending in the right direction as he heads to a portion of the schedule with which he's very comfortable. As an added bonus, we can grab Fleetwood at very reasonable price tags on this week's DFS salary scales.
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