RADIO
Since there were no NBA games Tuesday night, Wednesday leaves us with a big slate. There are a lot of possibilities and interesting matchups to look at and dissect. Just because it is a big slate does not mean you have to go crazy spreading your money around. Find a few plays you like, maybe a parlay, and go from there. This is a season-long grind.
I've had a hot stretch the last week, going 8-1 in my last three articles. On Monday night, the Sixers crushed the Wizards to cover -11.5, which I thought was a disrespectful line. Minnesota beat the Celtics in overtime, winning outright and covering +4.5. The Heat and Lakers forgot how to score in crunch time of the fourth quarter, which helped us hit under 222.5. Both the ML parlay (+244) and teaser (+140) hit as a bonus. It was a decent night, but you can't get too high because eventually everyone gets humbled in this game. I'm 10-3 on the season on straight bets.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, November 8th.
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads
New York Knicks (-10.5) vs. San Antonio Spurs (221.5 total)
The first overall pick in the 2023 NBA draft, Victor Wembanyama, makes his Madison Square Garden debut. Wemby has had a pretty decent start to his rookie season, averaging 19.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks in seven games at 28.9 minutes per game. He's raw, but he has already proved to be a defensive presence quickly. His offensive game will come along, but we've been able to get a glimpse of what it looks like when everything is clicking.
San Antonio as a team is off to an encouraging 3-4 start. They are also just 3-4 ATS, according to team rankings. I am more focused on them being 2-1 ATS coming off a loss, which is the situation here. The Spurs are also 2-2 ATS on the road this season.
Let's talk about their last game: a 152-111 loss to the Indiana Pacers on Monday night. The score looks bad, but the Pacers hit 55/95 (58%) field goals, 20/38 three-pointers (53%), and 22/23 free throws (96%). Any team in the Spurs position would've gotten torched that night; it's an anomaly shooting night from Indiana. I'm throwing the tape away from this game, as it would be unlikely to happen again. It would be stunning if the Knicks pulled this off (they won't).
They put up 111 points in the loss and are 14th in points per game at 114.6. Even with key guard Devin Vassell out, SA has put up 116 and 111 in back-to-back defeats.
The Knicks are coming off a really good 111-97 win at home against the Clippers. New York is second in defensive rating and opponent points per game. This has been a formidable group on defense that has struggled on offense.
An area the Knicks have a big advantage in on paper is rebounds. The Knicks are second in rebounds per game, while the Spurs are 28th. San Antonio does shoot a better field goal percentage and moves the ball better. I also like the pace the Spurs play with, and that could frustrate players like Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson.
Despite New York's potential physical advantages, I don't think they should be double-digit favorites. The Spurs can score the ball, and NY is nearly dead last in PPG.
A young Spurs team should be excited for the opportunity to play in the mecca. I like them to cover the number.
The pick: Spurs +10.5 (-115 BetMGM)
Cleveland Cavaliers (-2.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (228.5 total)
+19.1
That number up there represents the net rating of the Cleveland Cavaliers' best lineup, including Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen. This group has played 22 minutes together in two games since Jarrett Allen officially started his season.
Cleveland is entering this game off a great 115-104 win against the Golden State Warriors. Donovan Mitchell had 31 points and has been a beast this season, averaging 32.5 points and shooting 40.4 percent from three. Point guard Darius Garland finally had himself a nice game with 24 points and seven assists. When Garland and Mitchell are rolling, there aren't many backcourts in the NBA that are better.
These two teams played back on October 27th in Cleveland. Oklahoma City would win a really tight game, 108-105. The kicker is that Cleveland didn't have Darius Garland or Jarrett Allen in that game. Mitchell had 43 points, but it wasn't enough. Garland and Allen are back with the Cavaliers at full strength.
You can probably tell by my prolonged Cavaliers talk that I like them tonight.
Chet Holmgren has been awesome, but going up against the frontline of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen is no easy task. The Cavs limited the Warriors to 24 points in the paint on Sunday night. Last season, Cleveland was third in the NBA in limiting points inside. Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 12 of his 25.7 points per game in the paint. Oklahoma City is also tied for 25th in second-chance points. Cleveland finished fourth in the NBA last season in opponent second-chance points. The Thunder are going to need to capitalize on their opportunities, as second chances may not be there.
Normally, I would hate everything about the Cavs offensive profile (low scoring, not a lot of FG attempts, etc.), but for a team that won 50+ games last season, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
The pick: Cavaliers ML (-134 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals
Dallas Mavericks (-5.5) vs. Toronto Raptors (227.5 total)
The Dallas Mavericks are off to a 6-1 start this season. They have looked great on offense, averaging the fifth-most points and being first in three-pointers made per game. Dallas is 5-2 to the over, according to team rankings.
However, my play is on the under in this one. The Raptors are 27th in scoring at 107.1 points per game, only 20th in field goal percentage, and 16th in field goal attempts. They are an above-average three-point shooting team. The Mavericks are the 13th-best defensive team at limiting three-point makes and the 11th-best at limiting attempts. When it comes to opponent points per game, Dallas is 17th, which is very respectable.
On the other side, the Raptors defense has been good all season. They allow the fifth-fewest points per game and the least three-point makes per game. On top of that, Toronto plays at the second-lowest pace in the NBA.
The Raptors are sixth in defensive rating. Dallas is 19th, which again is respectable.
I expect this game to be kind of a slog.
The pick: Under 227.5 (-110 Caesars)
Favorite ML Parlay: LAC + LAL + SAC (+232 FD)
Favorite Teaser: SAS +16 - TOR +12 - GSW +10 (+130 FD)
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