RADIO
Happy November! We have a loaded Wednesday night slate that features 13 games. There are a lot of games and, hopefully, a lot of opportunities to find some winners. Scan the board, find something you like, and let it ride.
After my 2-2 start to the season, I rebounded nicely with a 3-0 card on Monday. This moved my season record to 5-2. The solid Nets took down the Hornets on the road. Boston was covering against the Wizards before the game even tipped. Chicago forced Indiana to play their game, and the under was an easy winner.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, November 1st.
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals
Detroit Pistons (-4) @ Portland Trail Blazers (214.5 total)
I know what you're thinking; yes, this is an ugly game. My focus here is on the over.
Both of these teams have been pretty good on defense this season. Detroit ranks in the top ten, while Portland ranks in the top 15 for the fewest opponent points per game. The two have been fantastic at limiting three-point attempts, ranking in the top five. Both are seen in the top ten for the fewest opponent three-point makes per game. Let's look at the fewest field goal attempts per game: Portland is in the top five, and Detroit is in the top 15. How about pace: Both are in the bottom ten in the NBA.
Neither has a dynamic offense. Detroit is around the league average in points per game. Portland is near the bottom of the league. The Pistons have shot well from three in their last two games, hitting 27/56 attempts.
Everything in this game points towards the under, which is why I love the over. Defensive regression. I don't think either of these teams is as good as their numbers say on defense.
The 215.5 is likely going to be the lowest over/under you see on the board today.
Detroit has scored over 100 points in all four of their games this season. In their two wins, they put up 118 and 111 points. Last game, they scored 112 against the Thunder, a team that I think is much better on defense than the Blazers. Pistons center Jalen Duren is also questionable, and the hope is that the big guy sits this one out. Not having Duren would hurt the Pistons, but it would open up the paint and offensive rebounding opportunities for Portland. If Duren plays, he should contribute to Detroit's point total, averaging 15.5 points per game.
I also like that the Blazers just picked up their first win on the road in Toronto. Coming into this game with some confidence, they are looking to put up 100+ points for the first time since scoring 111 against the Clippers in their opener.
This over could hit by the third quarter, or neither of these teams is eclipsing 100 points. There's no in-between. I'm hoping for the former.
The pick: Over 214.5 (-110 PointsBet)
Denver Nuggets (-3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (222.5 total)
The defending champs take on a Timberwolves team that played them tough in the first round of the 2023 playoffs.
Denver is off to another hot start this season, winning their first four games. They are putting up 116.3 points per game. Last season, they averaged 115.8, and in the playoffs, they averaged 113.5. The offense looks similar, and they once again should be a top-ten unit with top-of-the-league efficiency.
Where it looks like they've made a leap is on defense. Last season, they finished 15h in defensive rating. In the playoffs, Denver had the best defensive rating among the eight teams to play at least ten playoff games, leading to an NBA title. This season, the Nuggets look improved on defense and are in the top five for defensive rating. Minnesota is good on defense themselves, slotting in the top ten in defensive rating. They have also been a top-five team limiting points in the paint to start the season.
Now, mix this with a struggling Timberwolves offense, and the under is starting to look good. Minnesota is in the bottom five for points per game and not shooting the ball well. Neither of these teams has been too aggressive either; both rank at the bottom in free throws attempted.
In the playoffs, this number went under in three of five games. In game two, they combined for 225. I think both of these teams will be very good on defense this season.
According to team rankings, Denver is 0-4 to the over this season. Minnesota is 1-2.
The pick: Under 222.5 (-115 Caesars)
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads
Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5) @ Toronto Raptors (223 total)
The Raptors come into this game after losing as 9.5-point favorites at home to the Portland Trail Blazers. Embarrassing, yes, but that leaves them with a good bounce-back spot tonight.
Toronto lost to the Sixers as a home underdog in the second game of the season. Last season, they were 4-3 as home dogs, according to team rankings.
Milwaukee looks different this season with the addition of Damian Lillard and the departure of Jrue Holiday. Giannis has personally played well against the Raptors, but Toronto has played well against the Bucks. Last season, the Bucks won both matchups, a 104-101 overtime victory in Toronto and a 118-111 win in Milwaukee. I'll gladly take another three-point outcome.
Toronto has been awful at scoring the ball, but they are a very good defensive group. The Bucks are in the bottom ten for points allowed, and this is a good game for Toronto to build some offensive momentum. Toronto is also at the top of the league in fast break points, while the Bucks have had a hard time stopping transition. Toronto also rebounds the ball well; Milwaukee hasn't this season. The Raptors need to hold onto the ball in this game, as Milwaukee has been able to capitalize on points off turnovers in their three games.
The Raptors had a 27-14 regular season home record last season compared to 14-27 on the road. They were also 41-40-2 ATS including the play-in, according to team rankings. This season, they are 2-2 against the spread. Going up against Giannis and Dame is no easy task, but I think Toronto is scrappy enough to cover this number. They are physical and looking to right their wrong from Monday night. It wouldn't surprise me if they won outright (+176 FD)
The pick: Toronto Raptors +5.5 (-108 FanDuel)
Favorite ML Parlay: HOU + DAL + MEM (+478 FD)
Favorite Teaser: BRK +11 - MEM +8 - IND +16.5 (+180 FD)
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