RADIO
The NBA season is almost a week old, and we're off to an exciting start. We've seen players debut with their new teams, there's close games nightly, and the league is just filled with talent. Zach LaVine provided us with the first 50-point game of the season on Saturday night after Luka Doncic poured in 49 in a Friday night victory. Every team feels like they have someone or something interesting to pay attention to.
My first article of the season last Wednesday saw me split my four games. The bad: I tried to get cute and take the Houston Rockets to cover the four points on the road in Orlando. They played a decent first half but got outscored 62-43 in the second half to lose by 30. The Chicago Bulls failed to beat the young Oklahoma City Thunder at home. Houston and Chicago are two teams you probably won't have a fun time betting on this season. The good: Knicks-Celtics easily went under 225.5. Clippers-Blazers got off to a slow start but were able to go over 227.5. I was good on the game totals and bad on the spreads.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Monday, October 30th. I hope you all had a good weekend. Let's get to business!
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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads
Brooklyn Nets (-1) @ Charlotte Hornets (228.5 total)
Both of these teams enter this game coming off losses. The winless Nets got Luka'd on Friday night and lost a close game in Dallas. Charlotte won their first game of the season but lost 111-99 on Friday night to the Detroit Pistons.
Brooklyn sits at 0-2 on the season, and I think that ends tonight. They lost really close games to the Cavaliers and Mavericks, two good teams. The Nets very well could be 2-0, just the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. I like what I have seen from them so far. They have scored over 110 points in both games and shot just under 50 percent on their field goal attempts. Brooklyn is also just under 43 percent from three, which is near the top of the league. Jacque Vaughn's squad is shooting a cool 80.6 percent from the line. They could be more aggressive, as they are only managing 18 freebies per game.
Charlotte has not shot the ball well to start the season.
Cam Thomas has gone wild to open the season with back-to-back 30-point games. Although this pace is likely unsustainable, he gets an excellent matchup against a weak defensive backcourt in LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier. The same holds true for Spencer Dinwiddie, who shook off a bad opener and had 23 points and eight assists against the Mavericks. Mikal Bridges has only scored 20 and 18 points so far and can go off at a moment's notice. I've been encouraged by Ben Simmons. Hopefully, he attacks the basket more but can be useful without scoring. This would be a good game for Simmons to be aggressive, as Charlotte has given up 56 points in the paint through two games. Last season, they gave up the ninth-most points in the paint per game. I wouldn't expect them to all of a sudden lock it down tonight.
Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton both remain out tonight after they both missed Friday night's game.
Regardless, I like the Nets on the road to earn their first win.
The pick: Nets ML (-115 DraftKings)
Boston Celtics (-10) @ Washington Wizards (229 total)
One of the best teams in the NBA goes up against one of the worst.
Boston has been able to etch out two close wins to start the season. The Celtics look a little different this season with the additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. Porzingis lit up his former Knick team for 30 points in the opener. He fell back to earth with 17 points against the Miami Heat Friday night. Jrue Holiday was very quiet against the Knicks, but versus the Heat, he had 17 points, ten rebounds, and seven assists. It would appear these two seem to be fitting in just fine.
The Celtics will be very heavy on the lineup of Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis. Unsurprisingly, these five have performed well together. They have a 115.5 offensive rating, 96.5 defensive rating, and a 63.1 percent true shooting percentage in 40 minutes.
Washington's most-used lineup of Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Deni Avdija, Kyle Kuzma, and Daniel Gafford have a -19 net rating in 14 minutes of action.
You can pick your poison with this team, as they will usually have at least two guys step up. Jaylen Brown only had 11 points in his first game and followed it up with 27 against the Heat. Derrick White scored 12 against the Knicks and then 28 to lead the team in the Heat victory. All five Celtics starters scored at least 17 points against the Heat.
I got my eye on Porzingis in this game facing his former Wizards team. The seven-foot-three Latvian has played well against his former teams. In six games (Five against the Knicks, one against the Mavs), KP is averaging 23 points, 8.2 rebounds, and has hit 22/44 three-pointers. He got up to play the Knicks, and I think the same happens here against the Wizards.
The Wizards held the offensively challenged Memphis Grizzlies to 106 points to pick up their first win on Saturday. I'm not going to let that fool me, and I'm way more focused on the 143 (!) points they allowed the Indiana Pacers to score in the opener.
I hate Jordan Poole in this matchup against Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Give me Boston to cover here on the road.
The pick: Celtics -10 (-110 DraftKings)
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Indiana Pacers (-3.5) vs. Chicago Bulls (229.5 total)
Indiana has been a juggernaut on offense through two games. They are averaging 134 points and over 100 field goal attempts, while also shooting over 50 percent. From three, the Pacers are shooting over 43 percent. This offense has been very fun to watch, and I hate to be a downer, but I'm betting on regression in this game. Last season, this very similar Pacers team scored 116.3 points per game. They shot 46.9 percent on field goals, 36.7 percent from three, and 79 percent from the foul line.
I'm not a fan of this Bulls team, but that works in my favor here. Through three games, they are dead last in the NBA at 94.7 points per game. Chicago has also been awful from deep, shooting 28.7 percent on 33.7 attempts per game. Last season, they shot 36.1 percent from three. That's an improvement from how they've started this season, but it was still outside the top 15.
These teams play contrasting styles. Indiana loves to get out and run. Chicago likes to slow it down and take its time. The Bulls are attempting the most two-point field goals with 0–4 seconds left on the shot clock. They take a lot of time and trade twos for threes, a nice recipe for the under. Neither team has been super aggressive getting to the line, both averaging under 20 free-throw attempts per game.
The Pacers are not good on defense, and the Bulls are not good on offense. Chicago has given up 124, 103, and 118 points in their three games. I do believe the Bulls will figure it out on defense, and they were fifth in defensive rating last season. This is also the Bull's third game in four days; there can be some tired legs out there. Tired legs would incentivize Chicago to hold onto the ball and preserve offensive energy. They don't want this game to turn into a track meet. Chicago has typically been good at limiting fastbreak points, which is where Indiana does a lot of its damage.
I think the Pacers will be a big-over team this season, but the Bulls are the right amount of decent on defense and below average on offense to have this game go under.
The pick: Under 229.5 (-110 FanDuel)
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