RADIO
Welcome to the 2024 NBA playoffs! After settling the play-in matchups earlier this week, we kick off the real action with four games today. The quest for Larry O'Brien is underway and I'm really excited for these series. It's wall-to-wall hoops with the Cavaliers vs. Magic starting at 1 p.m. EDT and the Nuggets vs. Lakers at 8 p.m. I'll be giving three picks on the four games and staying away from the Knicks game, as I just don't feel confident about anything attached to it.
Last night, I split my two picks. The Bulls had a forgettable night and were down 10 at halftime. Sacramento got me a win on the board by winning the first quarter on the road in New Orleans. I hope to carry that momentum into today and I really like the board:
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 1:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday, April 20. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Orlando Magic (+4.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers (207.5 total)
As much as I do like the Magic, I'm going to lean on the experience with the Cavs. The key players on the Magic haven't played in a playoff environment and this will be something new. I'm taking Cleveland in the first half and hoping Orlando is a little uncomfortable and tight to start.
Neither team is great on offense but the Cavs were the better of the two. It felt like Cleveland was never at full strength all season and they still managed to rank 15th in first-half scoring. They finished ninth in first half offensive rating and I think that's a more accurate depiction than 15th in scoring. On defense, the Cavs were 17th but they finished with the eighth-best net rating. Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley all missed over 20 games this season.
The Magic finished 25th in offense, 11th in defense, and 22nd in net rating. Against the spread in the first half on the road, they were 19-22 and 2-8 in their last 10. In those road games, the Magic put up a little over 55 points while hitting 47.1 percent of their FGAs and 34.5 percent from three. They can go on offensive lulls and I'm banking on that here.
Both teams were never at full strength in their four matchups so it's a little hard to evaluate past performance. Donovan Mitchell averaged 14.7 points in three first halves against the Magic and shot 50 percent from three. Paolo Banchero led the way for Orlando, averaging 11.3 points in four appearances vs. Cleveland. I definitely think the Magic are ready to compete and will get better as the series goes on. In terms of Game 1, I'm going to bet against possible jitters.
45 + 31 = 6️⃣2️⃣ COMBINED PTS LAST NIGHT #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/e3mGx88pXt
— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) April 13, 2024
The Pick: Cavaliers First Half -2 (-110 Caesars)
Los Angeles Lakers (+7.5) at Denver Nuggets (224.5 total)
They are giving us a lot of points to play with, and I will be the sucker that takes it. I completely think the Lakers are live dogs in this series. Los Angeles lost all three match-ups to the Nuggets this season. Their most recent loss was on March 2 in LA, when the Nuggets beat them 124-to-114. The game was tied at 89 going into the fourth quarter before Denver outscored the Lakers 35-to-25 in the final frame. Their only matchup in Denver came on opening night when the Nuggets won 119-to-107. That was a long time ago.
In Ball Arena, the Nuggets went 21-19-1 ATS this season. The Lakers were 14-11 ATS as away underdogs, so both teams have winning records in these situations. LeBron James & Co. looked good in their play-in victory in New Orleans. They went up by a lot, then blew the lead, but still were able to come out with a victory. The Lakers did hit 26 of 29 free throw attempts and they likely aren't getting that many in this game. It wouldn't be inconceivable, because the Nuggets did give up over 22 FTAs a game on average.
The Lakers closed the season really strong on the offensive side of the ball. In their last 15 games, they scored over 122 points per game while hitting 50.2 percent of their FGAs and 37.6 percent from three. LeBron was a beast to end the regular season and then had 23-9-9 in the play-in victory. Anthony Davis averaged 24.5 points and 13.7 rebounds in the Lakers' final 15 games. Against Denver this season, they put up really solid stats and they are two guys I don't want to go against right now. The supporting players are also playing really well; this team has been bought in.
Darvin Ham's team struggled on defense to end the season but held New Orleans to 106 points. I do like the defensive potential of this Lakers square and they have good length. Jokic is Jokic, and I'm not asking the Lakers to win the game here, but I do think it's a nice amount of points to play with. It should be a fun series.
📼 Top Five from the Play In@MichelobULTRA x #LakeShow pic.twitter.com/sQXqQm7QeX
— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) April 18, 2024
The Pick: Lakers +7.5 (-115 ESPN BET)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Phoenix Suns (+1.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves (214.5 total)
When these teams played on the last day of the regular season, they easily went over the total. I'm targeting the Sun's team total in this contest. Phoenix swept the season series 3-0 and put up 133, 97, and 125 points in the three games. The Suns have seemed to play well against Minnesota and I can see that happening again.
Phoenix averaged 118.3 points and hit 53 percent of its FGAs and 48.8 percent from three. From the line that hit 82.3 percent of 20.7 FTAs. Those numbers are hard to replicate but we're asking the Suns to score a lot fewer points than what they've averaged. This is a very reasonable number.
Kevin Durant (22.7) and Devin Booker (22.3) have both averaged over 22 points in three games against the Timberwolves. Those are considerably low averages for two of the best scorers in the league. In 166 playoff games, Kevin Durant is averaging 29.4 points. Devin Booker has averaged 28 points in 43 playoff games. These are two guys who know how to raise their games in the postseason. In terms of the other players, Bradley Beal had 36 points in the regular season finale win. Grayson Allen averaged 19 points and shot 62.5 percent from three against this Minnesota squad this season.
I don't expect the Suns to push around this Timberwolves team like they did to end the regular season but there are vulnerabilities they've taken advantage of. The opposing team hit 38.2 percent of their shots from three against Minnesota in the final 10 games of the season. Phoenix averaged 8.7 steals and generated 24.3 points off of turnovers. Chris Finch's team has had some trouble turning the ball over this season. If they struggle to handle the rock again today, Phoenix should be able to turn that into easy points.
For one...two...threeeee 👌 @Gatorade | #ItTakesEverything pic.twitter.com/wNUO3iaH68
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) April 18, 2024
The Pick: Suns Team Total Over 106.5 (-120 ESPN BET)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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