RADIO
After taking a day to recoup, I'm back with NBA betting picks for the nine-game Wednesday night slate. Tonight's two marquee games feature an NBA Finals rematch with Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets traveling to Miami to take on the Heat. The late game on ESPN will see LeBron James and the Lakers try to prevent De'Aaron Fox and the Sacramento Kings from lighting the beam at Golden 1 Center.
On Monday, I split my two picks on the smaller slate. My loss came on the Pistons team total under 110.5. Detroit only had 53 points at halftime, and they were tracking to go under until they had a 61-point second half. They finished with 114 points and also shot 22-of-24 at the foul line. The Pistons have shot 78.4 percent from the line this season, so with 24 attempts, the averages would tell you they should hit around 18-19 shots. Just a hot night from the line, I felt like I had the right read, and I'd take their under again given another chance. My win came when the Mavericks crushed the Chicago Bulls in the first half. Dallas was up 62-42 at the end of two quarters, easily cashing the -1.5 first-half line. I'm now 19-6 in my last 25 picks since the All-Star break.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, March 13. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML
Denver Nuggets (-5) at Miami Heat (214.5 total)
It's an NBA Finals rematch tonight in Miami, with Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets coming to town. When I first saw this game on the schedule tonight, I didn't think much of it until I remembered the Heat were in the finals last season. It's easy to forget Miami came out of the East based on how good Denver was in the playoffs and finals. I say that because I don't think I'm the only person feeling this way; Miami can be an afterthought at times.
In a national spotlight like tonight, I do think the Heat will get up for this game. Neither of these teams have had good ATS records this season, so I'm avoiding any full-game picks. I'm taking the Heat in the first half here. Miami is 16-15 ATS at home in the first half, and Denver is 16-16. The Heat had a bad loss to the Washington Wizards on Sunday and have had to sit on that for two days. This was Miami's third loss in a row, with all three games coming down to crunch time.
The scoring isn't great for the Heat, with only 56.4 first-half points per game in the nine games since the All-Star break. They are actually shooting it well, hitting 49.5 percent of FGA and 45.8 percent from three. Their problem is that they just aren't getting enough shots, both in the bottom five in FGA and three-pointers attempted per game.
Denver is only 15th in opponent FGA in the first half on the road this season. From three, they are one of the best teams at limiting attempts from deep, but the Toronto Raptors did hit 9-of-19 three-pointers in the first half on Monday. If Miami can emulate some of that, I really like their chances of covering the opening 24 minutes.
Of course, Miami needs to attempt to slow down the beast that is Nikola Jokic. Jokic cooked them in the finals last season but only had six points and three assists in the first half when these teams matched up in Denver on February 29. The Nuggets won the first half 56-51 in that late February game. I'm taking Miami tonight.
This is what happens when you jump with Bam 😮💨
0/10 recommend pic.twitter.com/2OnGBU4lsL
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) March 10, 2024
The Pick: Heat First Half +2.5 (-115 ESPN BET)
Golden State Warriors (+8.5) at Dallas Mavericks (237.5 total)
The Golden State Warriors had a tough first game after it was announced that Stephen Curry would miss a few games. Golden State lost 126-113 at home to the San Antonio Spurs. Rebounding in their next game, they beat the Spurs 112-102 in San Antonio.
I'm using that second game for my reasoning about why I like the Warriors to cover tonight. The Warriors shot 50 percent on FGA and hit 12-of-27 three-pointers in their win. This team probably won't score a lot of points, so they will need to rely on defense to keep this game close.
San Antonio only shot 42 percent on their field-goal attempts and 38 percent from three. Dallas is much better on offense than the Spurs, so it'll be a bigger test for the Warriors tonight. I just think it's a nice amount of points to play with, and the Warriors have a decent core of Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Chris Paul, and Brandin Podziemski without Curry.
Chris Paul had 19 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists in Monday's win. The veteran has shown he can still play. In terms of defending Luka Doncic (if possible), the Warriors have guys to throw at the big guard and at least attempt to frustrate him.
Golden State has held opponents to 46.8 percent on field goals and 36.1 percent from three, placing them in the top 10 in both categories. If Dallas scores a ton of points and blows them out, I'll understand, but I'll also be surprised. Golden State can play tough; I'll trust them in this road spot.
Dunk artistry
📺 @NBCSAuthentic pic.twitter.com/y1lesvkIFm
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) March 12, 2024
The Pick: Warriors +8.5 (-110 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Cleveland Cavaliers (+7.5) at New Orleans Pelicans (217.5 total)
I'm going to continue to trust my strategy of taking the team total under on whoever plays the Pelicans. Tonight's victim happens to be the Cleveland Cavaliers. New Orleans is on a four-game winning streak and has held their opponents to 102, 98, 95, and 103 points in their last four games. That's an average of 99.5 points, and teams have shot 40.6 percent of FGA and 30.8 percent from three. They have been disciplined as well, only allowing 18.3 free-throw attempts.
Cleveland is on a two-game losing streak, and I don't love the way they look right now. Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley have both missed games. Since the All-Star break, the Cavs are averaging 108.6 points on 57.5 percent true shooting. They also play at one of the slowest paces and have been in the bottom three in FGA in their last 12 games.
That's just a bad combination against this Pelicans team right now. New Orleans has been allowing a good amount of FGA, but teams haven't had success actually getting the ball in the hoop. The Pels are in the top five in limiting PITP and in the top 10 in limiting fast break and second chance points this season.
Not on 🌿 pic.twitter.com/4bmsNtdiET
— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) March 10, 2024
The Pick: Cavaliers Team Total Under 106.5 (-120 ESPN BET)
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