Four Overvalued Fantasy Football Rookie Busts

September 4, 2024

Ellis Johnson selects four overvalued fantasy football players from the 2024 draft class. These players have climbed draft boards all offseason, yet gamers should be cautious.

It’s finally September. As the leaves change color and the kids go back to school, our schedules have now changed for the next 18 weeks. No longer will we be able to get stuff done on Sundays, as it’s football season! Well, at least I know my productivity takes a substantial hit during the football season…

Rookies have two major excitement peaks. The first is right after the NFL Draft, and the second is now. Everyone is dying to see these rookies take the NFL field against starting NFL defenses. As a result, some rookies have become overvalued heading into the season. These players are propped up by the “what if” rather than the probable outcomes.

In this article, I will identify four rookies who I believe have fallen victim to the rose-colored glasses, and are officially overvalued for the 2024 season. These players can still have very productive NFL careers; however, this first season might need to pump the brakes a little.

Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS)

I can't imagine this is a popular selection, but I struggle to see Daniels having a consistent fantasy season. Between his rushing ability and accurate pocket passing, there's a clear path for him to be a very safe bet this season, but I’m not so sure.

After this team traded away Jahan Dotson, it is left with arguably the worst skill-position group in the league. With Terry McLaurin and Brian Robinson Jr. leading the way, it’s at least the most boring skill-position group in the league.

I also hate projecting injuries for players; however, Daniels terrifies me. In college, he had "highlight" tapes of defenders lighting him up. Unfortunately, this preseason looked no different. Daniels needs to learn when to slide if he is to succeed in the NFL, and I'm worried he'll learn that the hard way. Although worried, I want to be clear that I hope he finds a way to stay healthy and have a long career.

Daniels is a very flashy QB, who makes a few jaw-dropping plays each game. However, without the positional depth to support him, it’ll be hard for him to carry this team every week. Plus, PFF is projecting the Commanders to have the fifth-worst offensive line in the league.

All this makes Daniels a quarterback who is already bad at taking big hits, playing behind a bad offensive line, and not having many playmakers. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for success to me.

Jayden Daniels first NFL completion: pic.twitter.com/wnswqmSb4j

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 10, 2024

Bo Nix (QB, DEN)

Although Nix's current ADP is the QB23, I have seen a lot of people selecting him a lot earlier in drafts. I think his ADP may still be weighed down by the drafts completed before the preseason. As a result, I don't have a huge issue with him as the QB23, but I still think we should temper expectations.

This year more than most, the preseason seemed to be a lot closer to college football than NFL football. In either case, Nix showed up. However, I am wary of his ability to produce in fantasy. Yes, he is more mobile than most think. However, he does not push the ball downfield and will rely on a steady running game to succeed.

I see a lot of Mac Jones (before he fell off a cliff) in Nix. He may become a decent NFL QB; however, that will likely only result in fantasy finishes around QB18-24. Although decent, you don’t win your league by starting the equivalent of the fantasy bare minimum at QB.

Bo Nix dropped back to pass 34 times this preseason, which is the equivalent of roughly one full game.

- 6.1-yard average depth of target
- Zero sacks
- Four scrambles

The Broncos produced 3 TDs, 205 yards passing, and 110 yards rushing with Nix on the field this preseason. pic.twitter.com/JD5p9eL8SW

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 26, 2024

MarShawn Lloyd (RB, GB)

After AJ Dillon surprisingly landed on season-ending IR, Lloyd bounced back in the fantasy rankings. Lloyd had a relatively disappointing training camp. Not only did he battle injuries, but he was repeatedly reported as not looking the part in training camp.

One of the major arguments for Lloyd was Josh Jacobs’ inefficient running last season. However, this team has doubled down on Jacobs being the guy all offseason. Now with Dillon out all season, Lloyd is the obvious backup; however, don’t dismiss Emanuel Wilson.

Wilson was sneaky last preseason, making a handful of head-turning plays. The undrafted free agent in 2023 did the same this season and has received glowing reports from the coaching staff. It’s a big ask for Wilson to beat out Lloyd for the clear backup role, but it may be more murky than it looks on the surface.

#Packers HC Matt LaFleur on how MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) is looking:

“We’ll see. We’ll give him the week to watch him as he progresses. Certainly, we’re gonna be smart with him, and he was limited today, but he’s doing more and more, and we’ll see where he’s at.” pic.twitter.com/1fIFXath63

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 1, 2024

 

Keon Coleman (WR, BUF)

Coleman is really hard not to love, both on and off the field. As soon as he was drafted by the Bills and had his first interview, the fantasy community fell in love. The Florida State product has an incredible personality and walked into the perfect role after the departure of Stefon Diggs.

Unfortunately, Coleman was touted to be an NFL project rather than an immediate starter. With his athletic attributes and contested-catch ability, Coleman has the potential to be a really good WR. However, as we saw in the preseason, he is currently lacking the finesse needed to consistently beat NFL corners. 

As a result, I would rather select other upside rookies who are going after him like Brian Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell.

Keon Coleman didn’t know which way to sign his contract 😂pic.twitter.com/OsFb6V37dA

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) July 23, 2024

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