RADIO
Ryan looks at four fantasy football wide receivers with overblown ADPs who fantasy managers should not be drafting for their teams for the upcoming 2024 season.
The fantasy football season is imminent, and for the sickos, that means diving into as much research and data as you can get your hands on over the next few weeks. Sometimes too much data can have a reverse effect on managers and lead to overthinking, but here at RotoBaller, we like to provide you with a digestible mix of data and context to help you make an appropriately educated decision when it comes to fantasy drafts.
The NFL has transitioned into a pass-heavy league over the last decade, with quarterbacks routinely pushing or exceeding the 5,000 mark year after year. That has led to an increased premium on the wide receiver position across the league, with teams targeting pass-catchers much earlier in the NFL Draft. Fantasy has followed suit.
With the adoption of PPR scoring becoming more mainstream, fantasy managers are placing WRs under a microscope now more than ever. Here we will take a look at a few WRs who are currently overvalued in drafts based on their ADP.
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Puka Nacua: WR8, ADP 14
Sean McVay and Les Snead did it again. While the two could care less about first-round picks, notoriously trading away the prized commodity for five straight years, they have proven time and time again to strike gold in other rounds. In 2017 it was Cooper Kupp in Round 3, and last season it was Puka Nacua in Round 5.
The BYU product was nothing short of a revelation in 2023, breaking the rookie receiving yards and receptions record (albeit with one extra game).
This article isn't for singing Nacua's praises, though, it's closer to the opposite. I am a firm believer in his talent, but there are a few concerns about the fantasy outlook, especially at such a high price.
One point to consider is Matthew Stafford's health. The future MVP quarterback has been one of the most durable players in the league throughout his career, but his age might be finally catching up to him. Stafford has missed 10 games the past two years due to injury, and could start the season banged up.
If Stafford were to miss any time, Nacua and Kupp's value would take a massive hit. If I were a manager of either of these guys, I'd say a prayer every time Stafford gets knocked down.
A simple but convoluted equation among the fantasy community is talent + opportunity = fantasy success. Last year, Nacua was rich with both. He still has the talent, of course, but this season with a fully healthy Kupp back, who himself is a target hog, will thoroughly diminish one variable in that equation.
Those factors combined with the early second-round price tag make me shy away from drafting Nacua at ADP.
WR: Cooper Kupp #RamsHouse
ADP - 39
(WR18 off board)I have been preaching this for months and months. That a healthy Cooper Kupp is going to outproduce Puka Nacua at a cheaper value.
- Crazy to see how many content creators are saying to now also….Last Season when Kupp /… pic.twitter.com/pmQrCnHKEc
— My Mind Is A Weapon FF (@SleezBallFF) August 16, 2024
Marvin Harrison Jr.: WR9, ADP 15
One of the best WR prospects to ever enter the league finds himself on an avoid list. Huh? My concern is not with his talent whatsoever -- Harrison Jr. should be a franchise-altering pass-catcher -- it's with the ADP. The former Buckeye is being taken at the beginning of the second round, even sometimes late first, in 12-team leagues. This is BY FAR the highest a rookie WR has ever been drafted.
For Harrison to pay off his ADP, he needs to put up 100+ receptions, 1300+ yards, and almost double-digit touchdowns. That is an extremely high bar for a rookie. Of course, this is still possible. Ja'Marr Chase famously went 81-1,455-13 his rookie season. Puka Nacua just dropped 105-1,486-6 last year.
Those guys are the exception, not the rule. It's very unlikely Harrison Jr. hits those kinds of numbers in Year 1.
I am all for drafting Harrison if he falls to the early third round, but there are players I would rather have that feel like better, safer options at the spot he's currently going at such as Garrett Wilson, Drake London, and Chris Olave.
Marvin Harrison Jr should put up NUMBERS in his rookie season 🚀 pic.twitter.com/qLZXif7ym9
— PFF (@PFF) August 28, 2024
Nico Collins: WR14, ADP 31
After suffering through the revolving door of inadequate passers that consisted of Davis Mills, Tyrod Taylor, Kyle Allen, and Jeff Driskel, Collins was finally paired with a true franchise QB and he more than delivered.
The Michigan product took a WR57 ADP to a WR9 finish in half-PPR scoring. Almost an entire 50 whole positional spots of improvement. That is truly an incredible feat. So why am I down on Collins heading into 2024?
For starters, the Texans traded for elite wideout Stefon Diggs in the offseason. Diggs has been a perennial fantasy superstar for the past four seasons, ranking as the WR6 on average during his time in Buffalo.
He is also someone who demands considerable target volume, receiving an average of 161.5 targets in that same time frame. The only player to exceed that mark is Davante Adams. When Diggs is not getting the ball, he's also been known to cause a scene or two.
The receiving numbers for Diggs did regress in the latter half of 2023, but you best believe he's going to get the ball in Houston. A lot.
Diggs is not the only competition Collins will face for targets. Rookie wideout Tank Dell was also a big reason why C.J. Stroud was able to break the 4,000-yard mark in his first season. Dell's season ended in early December when he fractured his fibula, but before this, he was having an extraordinary rookie year.
The third-round pick was the WR11 through 12 weeks, actually outscoring his teammate Collins by 6.5 fantasy points. Their skill sets are quite different, but it's clear that Stroud has built a special rapport with his fellow rookie and will continue featuring him in the passing game if healthy.
With a projected close-to-even split at targets among the three talented wideouts, the current ADP of 31 doesn't seem like a great value for Collins. A few guys I would take over for him are Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans, and Jaylen Waddle.
Tank Dell scores more PPR fantasy points than Nico Collins.
Dell & Collins played together just 5 times in 2024 when Dell was in his full-time role and healthy.
In those games
- Dell: 20.4 PPR FPPG
- Collins: 17.2 PPR FPPGBoth are great picks in drafts- Dell is a true value https://t.co/scUNzmE5dU
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) August 22, 2024
DJ Moore: WR21, ADP 39
Like Collins, Moore also finds himself in a crowded wide receiver room though he has to catch passes from a rookie QB. While that worked out for Collins last season, Stroud was an outlier who broke numerous rookie passing records. Of course, Caleb Williams can do the same, but history tells us that it is extremely unlikely.
Moore had a great first season in Chicago, finishing as the WR6 against a WR20 ADP. Justin Fields looked for one man and one man only and that was Moore, who enjoyed a 29% target share -- good for 10th in the league. He likely won't reach that number again in his career.
Keenan Allen comes over from L.A., where he spent the past 11 years perfecting short-area routes, which should help him become the rookie QB's best friend. Allen has also averaged over 140 targets per year for his career when he plays at least 14 games.
Chicago also snagged WR Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick back in April. The Washington product is a big-bodied receiver who has one of the most complete route trees among college prospects over the past few years. The Bears can deploy him all over the field.
Throw in tight end Cole Kmet, who signed a $50M contract last offseason before putting up a career-high 73 receptions, and you have maybe the most crowded receiving corps in the entire NFL. I love Moore as a player and am stoked for the future if I'm a Bears fan, but I'm backing off him at the end of the third round.
This angle of Caleb Williams’ DIME to Rome Odunze 🤯
pic.twitter.com/eyN0J8Zi5e— PFF (@PFF) August 17, 2024
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