RADIO
From Thursday Night Football only hitting the over once in the first six weeks, we now have back-to-back high-scoring affairs on Thursday. Last week, this touchdown trend carried right into the weekend with some massive performances. A.J. Brown, D’Onta Foreman, Alvin Kamara, and Tony Pollard all got a turkey of touchdowns.
Thankfully, we get to watch one of those players who got a hat trick on Thursday. That’s right, the 7-0 Eagles go to Houston to take on the struggling Texans. There are a lot of fantasy pieces in this one, and what’s even better is that we saw what this Eagles team can do against an inferior opponent last week.
We’ve passed the midway point of the season, and now fantasy wins mean more than ever. Whether you are working your way into the playoff push or securing your position atop the league, you never want to enter the weekend with a poor performance on Thursday. As always, my name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your RotoBaller Thursday Night Start ‘em Sit ‘em article.
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Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans - 8:20 pm ET
Notable Injuries:
- Nico Collins (WR, HOU) - Groin - Out
- Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU) - Personal - Out
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
Considering the hit rate of the RB dead zone, Sanders and Josh Jacobs have been outstanding. Obviously, Sanders has not had the production of Jacobs, but he is still the RB17 on the season. Considering the fears of Jalen Hurts stealing touchdowns have come true (Hurts has six on the season), it’s remarkable what Sanders is doing. Thankfully, it’s his usage that’s been outstanding, having 70% of the RBs' rushing attempts and 65% of their targets on a high-powered offense.
This week, he gets to go against a defense that has allowed 362 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns to Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry over the last two weeks. That’s absolutely bonkers. If you watched Henry last week, the Titans' O-line was like a community swimming pool with all the lanes it was opening. Since we know it won’t be any Texan defenders, the only thing in Sanders’ way is if Hurts poaches most of the rushing work. However, that’s a gamble I’m willing to take. He’s a top-10 play for me this week and I’m calling for the Pie Shop* to be open.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week. (Season Calls: 3-5)
A.J. Brown (WR, PHI)
Let’s just admit that Brown is a top-five receiver in this league. Whether he is on one run first team or another, he finds ways to produce. His gigantic frame and secure hands really have made him the NFL’s Swol Batman.
Last week, we saw Brown post three touchdowns against the Steelers. What is arguably most impressive is that two of those touchdowns came in double coverage and were basically replicas of each other. He’s Hurts’ favorite target and is currently the WR7 on the season.
The only issue here is that Houston has a “good” pass defense. However, this is more because they couldn’t stop Paul Blart from riding a segway on the ground. This was perfectly demonstrated last week when Derrick Henry went for over 200 yards and two scores, while the team only passed the ball nine times and still won the game. You play Brown as a locked-in WR1, but we have to hope they need to pass more than the Titans did last week.
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
To finish the Philly trifecta, Hurts is another “must start” on this offense. The fantasy QB4 has played lights out all season. If it wasn’t for Josh Allen’s buzzsaw season, Hurts would firmly be in the MVP conversation.
This week, he takes on a defense that is shockingly allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to the position. This is largely due to the fact that they average the fifth-fewest completions and second-fewest passing touchdowns per game. They have also been relatively sturdy against QBs rushing, allowing the eighth-fewest rushing TDs to opposing QBs.
The theory is that all of these numbers are inflated because teams have so much success on the ground against the Texans. Although this is probably true, Derek Stingley Jr. and Steven Nelson have been solid against the passes they have faced this year. As a result, I don’t expect a monster game from Hurts in this one, but he is still locked in as a top-five option this week.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
The TE8 in points per game has been exactly what fantasy managers hoped for when drafting him. Although he is not hitting the elite numbers of those at the top of the position, he has been rock steady and saving you from TE purgatory. With six or more targets in all games but two this season, Goedert is a rock-solid mid-tier TE1 this week. The Texans are middle of the league in fantasy points allowed to the position, so expect another TE5-ish performance from the veteran TE.
Flex Considerations for Fantasy Football Lineups
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)
We’ve seen Smith have some explosive weeks this year, but also a few down weeks. Playing the role of Swol Robin to Swol Batman perfectly, Smith is an overqualified WR2 on this team. His complementary skills to Brown mean he will be relatively inconsistent but has the upside to be played as a flex option in most fantasy leagues. Despite having five receptions in each of his last two games, he has only managed 67 receiving yards. Play him as a high-end WR3 in Week 9.
Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU)
Not going to lie, I forgot there was another team in this matchup. Just kidding, but I think this Texans team will want to go home after the first quarter of this game. The biggest issue with Philly is that their defense has been on fire. However, the one place they are not atop the league is against the run. In the opposite fashion to the Texans, this could be a result of teams needing to play catchup and not running the ball as much against them.
Either way, Pierce has been quite impressive during his rookie campaign. The biggest issue here is that he does not have the passing work. So in a game where the team is heavy underdogs, he could very easily get game-scripted out. However, with 15 or more carries in every game but two this year, his volume makes him a viable RB3 in this tough matchup.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Davis Mills (QB, HOU)
After quietly being one of the better rookies from his class, reality has quickly caught up to the long-necked QB. As the QB25 on the season in a terrible matchup, he is not viable in any fantasy format.
Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett, and Chris Moore (WR, HOU)
None of these WRs possess any upside or consistency to be looked at in fantasy leagues this week. However, with Cooks and Collins both missing, you can take a shot at one of them. I prefer Dorsett between the two, but it could be anyone.
The Philly defense has three great corners and is allowing the seventh-fewest points to the position. The only good thing I see in this matchup is that Houston might be forced to throw and play from behind. However, I don’t think Cooks possesses enough upside to be any more than a WR4/low-end flex option in this matchup.
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Clearly frustrated with not being traded on Tuesday, Cooks has been ruled out for this week's matchup.
Honorable Sit Mentions: Texans TEs, Quez Watkins, Rex Burkhead
Ellis’ Picks
PHI -13 (3-5), Under 45.5 (3-5)
Career Thursday Night record: Spread (25-19), Over/Under (24-20)
We finally had a bit of a bounce back last week, calling the Over correctly in Week 8. However, my picks have been changing with the weather, which isn’t great during this time of year. I’ve started my Fireside Fantasy platform on TikTok (@FiresideFantasy_FFL) if want to follow my takes as I try to warm up.
This week, for the first time since Week 5, we have a spread larger than 1.5 points. This spread blows those out of the water, coming in at 13 points. There is no reason for Philly to not go 8-0 after this week, but the real question is: will the Texans be able to keep up? Even if they manage to stay in it, my favorite pick here is the under. Both teams will want to run, and I expect Philly to be the only one to find success in doing so, keeping the game low-scoring. As for the spread, these are the tough ones. I’m not going to think too much about this one and go with what really should happen between these two teams.
Thanks again for starting your week with my analysis. I’ll catch you next week for the repeat of last week's barn burner between the Falcons and the Panthers.
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