RADIO
Semi-final week has come and gone. I hope you all found a way to bring some luck to your fantasy teams over the holidays because fantasy performances were a minefield.
With fantasy stalwarts Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, and Rhamondre Stevenson all having brutal weeks, a lot of juggernaut teams were demolished. Thankfully, it was not all doom and gloom, with many secondary players (Cam Akers, James Conner, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, and Leonard Fournette to name a few) putting together very nice weeks.
This week, we have a matchup of two very contrasting styles with huge playoff implications. Last week, the Cowboys managed to overcome their “elite” defense allowing 34 points to Gardner Minshew, while the Titans let go of their AFC South dominance. I might be one of the few people not bought into the Cowboys being a top-five team in the league, but I can’t deny that they have an abundance of fantasy-relevant players. For the final time this season, my name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Thursday Night Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em article.
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Dallas Cowboys @ Tenessee Titans - 8:15 pm ET
Notable Injuries:
- Tony Pollard (RB, DAL) - Thigh - Out
- Derrick Henry (RB, TEN) - Hip - Out
The Cowboys Offense
I’m going to start the article a little differently this week, because of the unique matchup we have. This matchup has an electric fantasy offense facing an elite run defense that’s a porous pass funnel. Since almost the entirety of this entire article is made up of Cowboys players, I think it’s important to clearly dissect the intricacies of this Titans defense.
This week, both the Titans and the Jaguars are saving themselves for their showdown next week, as the game will decide the division winner. As a result, even Derrick Henry is Out as well as four defensive starters, with a fifth being doubtful. Of the defensive injuries, three are linebackers and the fourth is star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. This means the Cowboys have a lot more upside in their run game, however, the passing defense should remain relatively unchanged.
Here’s the situation, the Cowboys use a run-first offense, which is facing an incredible run defense. The Cowboys are seventh in the league in rushing yards per game (143) while sitting pretty at 16th in passing yards per game. On the other side, the Titans are averaging the fewest rushing yards per game over their last three games (68.7).
In fact, only five running backs have scored a rushing touchdown against them all season, and no back has managed to score two. Those five backs are Saquon Barkley, Samaje Perine, Miles Sanders, Joshua Kelley, and Austin Ekeler. If you have a keen eye, you’ll notice that the only name on that list they faced in their first 11 games is Saquon Barkley. This means that over their last five games, four backs have scored rushing touchdowns. I expect the Cowboys to struggle on the ground; however, their passing game should thrive.
The Titans are allowing the second-most passing yards and touchdowns per game. However, they are also allowing by far the most passing attempts per game (39.7). That’s 2.2 attempts more than the second-most, which is the same gap between the second and ninth.
I’m saying this because I think the Titans' poor passing defense is inflated by opposing teams failing to run the ball, forcing the pass. Therefore, I believe the Titans' pass defense is better than the statistics indicate since they are more frequently under pressure. This inflation has been on full display as the team allowing the most passing touchdowns per game has only allowed one passing touchdown in their last two games against Davis Mills and Justin Herbert.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
While writing this entire article, at the back of my head I’ve been dreading writing this section. What do you do with Zeke? The veteran back is on an eight-game touchdown streak and has been great for fantasy; however, this Titans defense really is no joke, even with starters missing.
Since Zeke is the only one, he becomes a must-start based on workload and endzone upside. I know I started this article praising the Titans’ run defense, I’ll add some confidence and call for Zeke to add his name as the sixth back to score a rushing touchdown on the Titans. That’s right, the Pie Shop is open for the ninth straight week.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Lately, Prescott has been the definition of showing up when it matters. After leading consecutive game-winning drives over the last two weeks, deservedly the doubt of him showing up in big moments seems to be quieting down. The real test will be if they can finally win a playoff game, but that’s for a later discussion.
At the start of this article, I break down many statistics that suggest this is a great matchup for Prescott where he should find plenty of success. Although I think the matchup is tougher than it looks on paper, nothing suggests this isn’t a plus matchup for the streaking QB. Start him as a top-five option this week.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
I will fully admit that I was skeptical if Lamb would ever become a truly elite fantasy option. Despite being one of the most talented players in the position, something seemed to be holding him back. Although I have no idea what that something was, he is having a true breakout fantasy season.
This season, he has double-digit fantasy points in 10 of his 15 games and is fifth in the league in targets. You give a player with his athleticism and skill that opportunity, and you’re always on the verge of a game-breaking performance. This week, against the team allowing the most fantasy points to the position, we have a rare possibility of seeing THE WR1 on the week on Thursday.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
Usually, when I say someone is quietly a top option at the position, their numbers are better than you’d think. However, Schultz’s numbers have been just as underwhelming as his fantasy hype indicates. With three or fewer receptions in four of his last six games, he is the definition of doing just enough to be an every-week start at the position.
The catch-22 is that you’re stuck with him based on the tight-end landscape. Thankfully, the Titans are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to the TE position on the season, and the fifth-most over the last six weeks. This is as good a matchup as you could hope for your fantasy finals. Since he is in a plus matchup, I think he has the perfect mix of upside and safety, and unless you need a 20+ point week, I’d play him over the likes of Mark Andrews and Darren Waller this week.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Hassan Haskins (RB, TEN)
Somehow in this offense, Henry continued to be an elite fantasy option. Although Haskins is not elite, this does provide some optimism for the rookie back, despite being the only threat on the entire offense.
On the season, the Cowboys are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to the RB position. However, over the last six weeks, they dropped to the 10th-fewest points allowed. Although still very good, this does provide a little optimism for the bulldozing back. Considering Joshua Dobbs is starting, the Cowboys are a strong enough defense to challenge worry any fantasy managers. I expect Haskins will be fine for fantasy, but I’ll be holding my breath Thursday Night if I’m relying on him in my league’s finals.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Michael Gallup and Noah Brown (WR, DAL)
From being on dynasty waiver wires everywhere, Noah Brown has surprisingly been relatively productive this season. However, the return of Gallup completely removed any consistency he had for fantasy football. Neither of these players is fantasy viable for your fantasy championship games.
If you have Brown, he holds too much risk although his upside makes him an appealing DFS play. As for Gallup, he holds the safer floor but his upside is 40 yards and a score. Personally, that’s not worth risking at this point of the season.
Joshua Dobbs (QB, TEN)
You can not play Dobbs. Although he does provide some fantasy relevance to the passing game, it's too risky to have any faith going into tonight. In fact, I'm avoiding absolutely all pass catchers on the Titans.
Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR, TEN), and Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE, TEN) are all out of your fantasy lineups as long as Willis is under center, was what I initially wrote. However, now that it's Dobbs there is some optimism for Okonkwo, but I wouldn't trust it.
Ellis’ Picks
Cowboys -10.0 (8-10), Under 39.5 (6-12)
Career Thursday Night record: Spread (30-224), Over/Under (27-27)
The Titans are a team much like the Colts, where there are enough pieces to see them making games tight, but there is little optimism. Well, that was my thought going into Monday night. Since we saw what a solid Chargers team did to the Colts, there is no way I have high expectations for this Titans team. I will admit they are quite different as one actually has an NFL-caliber coach and defense; however, neither possess a QB that can win NFL games. As a result, give me the Cowboys on the spread and the Under.
As this is the last Thursday Nigh Matchup of the year, I would like to thank you all for taking the time to read my analysis each week. This article has become cemented into my weekly routine for the last three years, and it wouldn’t be possible without the people who support RotoBaller. I’m excited to see you all here next year and wish you all the best of luck in your last matchups of 2022.
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