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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 7 of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
Sometimes fantasy baseball can resemble the stock market. You want the best portfolio of players without having to pay too much for them. Sometimes to achieve the optimal team, you need to make trades. The best way to gain added value is to trade away an over-performing player for one in a rut. This way, you reap the benefits of a stud player hitting their stride as you get to watch the other person look for answers. The tricky part is assessing which players are trending which way.
We don't have a ton of data to reference on the 2021 season, as many of the underlying metrics still need more time to stabilize before we can make exact assumptions. However, we can look at a player's track record and performance in this early season.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or if you want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
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Trade Targets to Acquire
Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros
Let's start by saying I hope we aren't too late on this trade target to acquire. The Houston Astros outfielder has been trending upward this last week of baseball by going 8-for-23 with three dingers and eight RBI. Nonetheless, there still may be a chance to trade for Tucker based on his overall stat line. When you zoom out past the last week, he is slashing .213/.285/.457 with a .742 OPS.
First, the main reason to trade for Tucker is based on how unlucky he has been. The expected stats adore Kyle Tucker, but the surface stats have not followed suit. For instance, his xBA is seventy points higher(.283), and the .530 xSLG% is a massive difference. With another glance at the Statcast metrics, we see a hard-hit rate of 50% and a barrel% north of 10%. The overall production just has not caught up to what should be happening at the plate. So, offer up some trade for Tucker ASAP before he puts up another big week and the price jumps even higher.
Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle Mariners
2021 marks Kikuchi's third season in the MLB, and each season we have seen the strikeout potential grow. The K% has gone from 16.1% in 2019 to 24.2% in 2020 and currently 25.6% in 2021. That is an excellent sign. On top of the added strikeouts, his ground ball rate continues to increase as well(2019- 44.8%, 2020-52.8%, and 2021-53%). That is a great sign because Kikuchi has a slight walk issue and gives up some hard contact. Nothing too major, but it is there.
In his first seven starts, Kikuchi has a 1-2 record and 4.29 ERA. Those look like pretty pedestrian numbers that make any SP tradeable. However, when you dig a little deeper, you find the SIERA is 3.53, which is the 29th best among all qualified starters. The bad luck has come from a few cheap HRs, and when you add up the uptick in Ks and misfortune, we could be looking at a very serviceable SP that an owner doesn't realize he has.
Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins
Jorge Polanco was a massive breakout in 2019 by putting up career-high marks in ABs(631), HRs(22), runs(107), and RBI(79). Polanco puts up a 33% hard-hit rate in that season, 16.5% K%, and 6.7% barrel rate. Then 2020 hits and Polanco puts up nearly identical stats(33% hard-hit rate, 15.5% K%, but 2.8% barrel rate). What happens to production? Well, it plummets to 4 HR in 209 ABs with a .354 SLG% and .658 OPS. That's the funny part about small sample sizes. They don't give an accurate assessment of how a player is doing.
Fast forward again to 2021, where early struggles out of the gate caused the stats to dip once again. However, his hard-hit rate continues to climb(37.4%), the strikeout rate(19.5%), and the barrel rate(8.8%) fall right in line with where they normally are. The good news for us is we can see the spike in wOBA(refer to the chart below) over the last week.
No doubt, the barrel rate increase drives the added success, but the underlying metrics are not different from 2019. Now is the perfect opportunity to scoop up Polanco.-especially given the fact that we can see he is turning the corner. In his last four games, all of them are multi-hit games, including two of them with HRs. See if you can acquire him for an SP that you've been using as a streamer that only gets a start against weaker opponents.
Trade Targets to Move
Jose Urena, Detroit Tigers
The great part about trading away Urena is he is basically found money. The Detroit SP was on very few people's radars to begin the season. However, Urena has four quality starts in his first seven games and a 3.60 ERA to go with them. Somehow he has managed to piece together a very nice run, but that luck is about to run out.
One of the easiest ways to spot a breakout is through pitch velocity-specifically the fastball. Both Urena's sinker and four-seam fastball are down nearly a full tick on the year. Ok, say we give him a break there because it's been a cold beginning to baseball. Next, we can examine some stronger predictive stats to see if the ERA is for real. Well, that glowing 3.60 ERA loses a lot of shine when placed next to a 4.5o SIERA. Also, his career HR/FB rate is around 12%, and currently, he sits a 7.4%.
Look, I understand some might think he has taken a step in the right direction or possibly have a hard time wanting to move someone that cost them nothing on draft day. But, this is the perfect time to get the best bang for your buck. Urena is not in the plans for Detroit, and there is an excellent chance if he struggles, he will wind up in the bullpen for one of the up-and-coming prospects. I would suggest packaging Urena and another piece for a better SP.
Adrian Houser, Milwaukee Brewers
Maybe you have been streaming Adrian Houser, and boom, you noticed he struck out 10 batters through six innings pitched at his last outing. Do not think this is who Houser is. Let the other managers believe it. Houser is a ground ball specialist who struck out all those batters through some divine intervention. Don't just take my word for it.Let's take a look at some numbers.
For starters, the 61% ground ball rate is ELITE. Houser has to rely on those weak batted balls in play because his K-BB% is 13.5%. That puts him in spotty company like Jon Gray, Trevor Williams, and Jorge Lopez. Next, I mentioned something about the strikeout luck. Oddly, 17 of his 31 strikeouts have come against the Miami Marlins this year. Outside of those two games, Houser is average less than 3 Ks per start. YUCK!
Offer Houser in as many trades as it takes to move him before his next start. Play up the fact that he struck out 10 batters last game. This is a streaming SP option at best and shouldn't be on a permanent roster spot in 12-team leagues.
Asdrubal Cabrera, Arizona Diamondbacks
Let's start by saying that I love trading away these types of veteran players on a heater. Other managers recognize the name, check out the stat line, and think this could be a useful part of their team. In the last week, Cabrera has four extra-base hits(2 doubles and 2 HRs) with six RBI. Zoom that out to the entire season, and he is slashing .279/.386/.468 with a .854 OPS. The early production will work in our favor. Remember, we are trying to identify players to move at the peak of their performance.
Asdrubal is no spring chicken by any means, and this is his seventh MLB team he has worn a jersey for. However, we know he has a league-average power with no speed and a decent batting average from his track record. Overall, I would consider him a usable bench bat with multi-positional eligibility.
Let's dig into some Statcast data. First off, his maximum exit velocity is 106-mph, which is two mph worse than his career-best mark. I bring it up because his hard-hit rate(35.2%) is right in line with this career number(35.2%). Yet, his 10.2 barrel% is at the best of his career. Really? That doesn't jive. The barrel% is a mirage, and the added HR boost to begin the season is merely batted ball luck brought on by pulling the ball heavily. This is another player I would suggest packaging with another piece to get something more useful for the rest of the season.
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