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Mike's fantasy baseball starting pitcher breakouts and draft sleepers. Target these pitchers in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts, given their recent breakouts.
One aspect that sets the top fantasy players apart from the rest of the crowd is the ability to find breakout potential in hitters and pitchers that are off the radar.
Last year, if you rostered any of the breakout pitchers discussed in this article, you likely done well and maybe even brought home a fantasy championship.
Let's take a look at four breakout pitchers from last year, who are great player to target in 2025 drafts. Hopefully this article can help you prepare for the coming 2025 season, as finding similar under-the-radar gems this year could be difference-makers.
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Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
Crochet broke from the ranks of relief pitchers to become the dominant ace of a moribund White Sox team. He was likely the premier trade chip in the winter market, moving to the Boston Red Sox for a package of prospects in December. Crochet had a carefully managed workload this season yet still threw a career-high 146 innings as he transitioned to a full-time starter.
The record belies the talent; he was 6-12 for the worst team in the modern era but had a whopping 209 strikeouts, a 3.58 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP in his 32 starts. Crochet had an impressive 35.1 K% this season and a paltry 5.5 BB%. The fact that Crochet made 32 starts, albeit abbreviated ones down the stretch, bodes well for him to be able to continue this trajectory in 2025.
That will likely be with a far better team, the Red Sox, meaning his win totals could substantially increase next season, although chasing wins in fantasy baseball is foolish. See his Statcast page below.
Some will express concern over how Crochet's season ended, with the team deciding to have Crochet pitch every fifth day but only throw three or four innings. Do not be alarmed by that red herring; there was no skill deterioration. This is a top-five starting pitcher in baseball this coming year, so draft him with confidence.
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Brown was certainly among the more interesting stories of the 2024 season. The hurler went 11-9 last year with a 3.49 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, with 179 strikeouts in a career-high 170 innings. But those numbers hide an interesting story: Brown was 0-4 with a ghastly 11.84 ERA and 2.37 WHIP in April. Those fantasy players who held on to him or picked him off the scrap heap reaped huge dividends the rest of the way.
As seen in the graphic below, Brown changed his pitch mix during the course of the year, which led to increased success, cutting the usage of his four-seamer while increasing the use of the sinker he introduced in May.
Brown cemented his spot in the Houston rotation moving forward into 2025. Brown might still fly under the radar this winter; make sure he is on your research list. Brown's ADP right now is 99, and you could be getting ace-like production for a mid-round price.
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
It seems that Greene's breakout has long been expected, yet the veteran is still only 25 years old. Greene went 9-5 in 2024, with a today 2.75 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and 169 strikeouts in 150 innings. The skills seemed to coalesce this season, making Greene a desirable fantasy commodity.
The fastball velocity resides in the 96th percentile at 97.6 MPH, but Greene also was excellent this season at limiting hard contact. There is reason to think that Greene could grow even more in 2025; with an ADP of 89, he is a relative bargain in early drafts for the outcomes you could potentially receive here.
Michael King, San Diego Padres
King made the official move to the starting rotation and proved to be one of the surprisingly better starters in the game this year with the Padres. King went 13-9 with a meager 2.95 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, and an eye-popping 201 strikeouts in a career-high 173 innings. That was almost 70 innings more than his previous major-league high.
He hit another level after the All-Star Break, going 6-3 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. The veteran will not sneak up on anybody this year like in 2024, but he should still be an excellent addition to the fantasy roster in 2025.
What was noteworthy about his season was how well King limited exit velocity and hard contact. His 85.7 MPH exit velocity was in the top one percent of baseball; his hard contact rate was a paltry 30.3%, good for the 97th percentile in all of baseball. There is little reason to think he cannot replicate this season, albeit with a higher ERA most likely.
These are just four examples, but where do we look for these options? Look at players who are going through role changes from the bullpen to become starters, like Crochet and King, yet have the underlying skill sets to be great in their new role.
Look at young veterans, like Greene and Brown, who flash potential but have yet to pull it all together at the major league level. Be sure to target a few of those players with this kind of upside in the middle rounds of drafts this winter and spring.
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