RADIO
Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 5 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.
Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 5 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll be taking a look at names like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Andrew Heaney, Anthony Volpe, Devin Williams, and more.
Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will choose a few players who have performed well lately and a few who have not, and I will analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.
Let's take a look at some interesting player performances as we conclude the first full month of the season!
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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 27, 2025.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (OF)
.284/.328/.523 Slash Line, 5 HRs, 12 RBI
Pete Crow-Armstrong came into 2024 as a highly anticipated fantasy prospect. He flashed some skills last season but has really shown the whole package in 2025, with a .284/.328/.523 slash line, five home runs, 22 runs scored, 18 RBI, and 12 stolen bases in 28 games.
His extreme speed and elite defense have been prominently displayed. He is tied for the most stolen bases in baseball and has only been caught stealing once. Additionally, all of his defensive metrics rank among the best in baseball.
Make that No. 12 for PCA 🔥
Pete Crow-Armstrong now sits atop the MLB stolen bases leaderboard! pic.twitter.com/tpNumxRy4U
— MLB (@MLB) April 25, 2025
PCA's high batting average and power production have been surprising. He did show flashes of both throughout his minor-league career, but there wasn’t necessarily an expectation that those would translate to the big leagues.
Furthermore, his underlying numbers don’t necessarily suggest it will continue. He has elevated the ball, but he has only impacted it around the league average.
His slugging percentage is bolstered by nine doubles and a triple, which makes sense given his speed. However, I would not expect his 20+ HR pace to continue.
PCA has made fantasy managers very happy to this point. He has provided everything at a high mark. I think he is outperforming his skills, but his skills are still strong enough to be valuable even if there is regression.
Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers (2B)
.321/.366/.420 Slash Line, 3 HRs, 8 SBs
Brice Turang was a stolen base specialist in his first two big-league seasons, but he has done it all in 2025, slashing .321/.366/.420 with three home runs, 26 runs scored, 14 RBI, and eight stolen bases. Should fantasy managers expect his five-category contributions to continue?
Turang's underlying numbers appear to be those of a completely different player. He has hit the ball much harder overall and has done a much better job squaring up the ball. He has swung harder, which may help account for this. Turang has spoken about making a concerted effort to change his approach, providing some support for these results.
Brice Turang 2024 vs 2025...#ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/7KoSyZmDG5
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) April 22, 2025
There isn't much to pick apart in Turang's numbers; the question becomes, do fantasy managers think these changes will last? On the one hand, he described a change in approach at the plate with the intent of generating the type of results he has seen.
On the other hand, he never hit for power even in the minors, and has provided decent but not great batting averages. Turang's stolen base numbers are the consistent aspect of his game, so he would be a fantasy contributor in roto leagues regardless.
Overall, I am skeptical that he will maintain these gains and would attempt to sell high on him.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Risers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 27, 2025.
Andrew Heaney, Pittsburgh Pirates
2-1, 1.72 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 26.3 percent Strikeout Rate, 31 1/3 IP
Andrew Heaney has been a valuable fantasy asset sporadically throughout his career, and the start of 2025 has been the next installment. The 33-year-old veteran has compiled a stellar 1.72 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 26.3 percent strikeout rate in his first five starts, four of which have been quality starts.
Six straight strikeouts to start the game 🤯
Andrew Heaney is dealing against his old club. pic.twitter.com/YhpyeI1TMo
— MLB (@MLB) April 24, 2025
There is no doubt that Heaney has been excellent so far, but wary fantasy managers should be interested in whether his success will continue. Several things under the hood suggest that Heaney may not continue to find as much success.
The first is his career-low .218 BABIP compared to a .295 average. Heaney is playing on a Pirates team that is above-average defensively, but that alone would not fully explain his results on balls in play.
Turning to his batted-ball profile, Heaney has done a good job limiting hard contact. What stands out is that he has done a great job keeping the ball on the ground. His 9.2-degree average launch angle and 35.1 percent fly-ball rate are both career lows by a considerable margin. Furthermore, his 3.7 percent HR/FB rate is significantly lower than his 14 percent career average.
The big question is, can he sustain these results? He has thrown his changeup and curveballs more than in previous seasons, which have helped keep the ball out of the air. However, his pitch location has not been that different on those pitches, so it doesn't really explain the improved results.
The good news is that Heaney's expected metrics support strong results. His 2.66 xERA and 3.08 SIERA are strong overall. The not-as-good news is that there aren't enough fundamental changes in his game to suggest that his 1.72 ERA and 0.77 WHIP are legit.
Fantasy managers could consider Heaney to be a sell-high candidate, but he should continue to provide fantasy value even if he regresses toward his expected stats.
Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
3-1, 3.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 21.9 percent Strikeout Rate, 27 1/3 IP
Reese Olson was more like a Fantasy Faller through his first three starts of the season. However, he has shut out his opponents in his last two starts with 12 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings pitched. Should fantasy managers expect Olson to continue to heat up?
Olson's splits could be attributed to his changing pitch mix. He relied more on his two fastballs in his first three starts but switched to his off-speed pitches in his most recent starts. Overall, his fastballs have been hit much harder than his changeup and slider, and he has given up more damaging contact with them.
The split between Olson's fastballs and off-speed pitches is staggering. He has generated impressive 23.9 percent and 17.8 percent swinging-strike rates with his changeup and slider. However, he has managed poor 4.6 percent and 0.8 percent marks with his sinker and four-seamer. Fastballs typically have lower swinging-strike rates, but these marks are exceptionally low.
Reese Olson, Filthy Changeups. 😷
5Ks thru 4. pic.twitter.com/cBr9GO7QrX
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 23, 2025
Olson's recent change in pitch mix supports the change in his results. His changeup and slider present a deadly combination against any lineup. The somewhat worrying part is that it is rare to see a starter find success with poor fastballs.
Olson's off-speed pitches have consistently outperformed his fastballs, and he has found success in his big league career, which is encouraging. Even if fantasy managers do not fully buy it, there is no denying that he has picked things up lately.
Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 27, 2025.
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (OF)
.177/.270/.490 Slash Line, 9 HRs, 18 RBI, 2 SBs
For most of his career, the only fantasy knock on Mike Trout was that he could not stay healthy. However, his per-game production dipped in 2024 and has been even worse so far in 2025. Could Trout truly be on the decline?
There are some troubling things under the hood. Trout’s 29.7 percent strikeout rate is a career-high and is much higher than his 22.5 percent career average. This could be because he is chasing pitches at a higher rate of 26.2 percent and is missing them more frequently, with a 39.3 percent contact rate, compared to a 62.9 percent career average.
He hasn’t had much luck when he has made contact with a .143 BABIP. Fortunately, this does seem to be bad luck. He is still hitting the ball hard, and his Statcast page is mostly red. The power has translated with nine home runs and a .490 slugging percentage.
Mike Trout ties for the MLB lead with his 9th home run! pic.twitter.com/ErSCVwzof7
— MLB (@MLB) April 26, 2025
Injuries are always a risk with Trout, but his current performance issues seem to be due more to bad luck than a decline in his skills. Fantasy managers who don’t mind taking on the injury risk could consider him a buy-low candidate.
Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees (SS)
.202/.303/.394 Slash Line, 4 HRs, 3 SBs
Anthony Volpe is just 23 years old but has garnered fantasy attention for some time, given his power-speed potential. He has shown some signs of that throughout his big-league career, but he has yet to put it all together. This has been the case in 2025, with a .202/.303/.394 slash line, four long balls, and three stolen bases in 109 plate appearances.
In terms of batting average, Volpe has struck out too much this season at a 28.4 percent clip. He has done a decent job impacting the ball, but he hasn't really elevated it with a 10.1-degree launch angle. This has led to a mediocre .250 BABIP despite his above-average speed.
It has also led to a lack of power with a .394 SLG. Volpe does have the benefit of playing his home games at Yankee Stadium, but his profile does not lend itself to generating substantial power.
He has also run slightly less than his first two seasons and has a much lower success rate, successfully stealing in just 60 percent of his attempts. Stolen bases are about intent, and Volpe has taken smaller leads in 2025 compared to 2023 and 2024.
His lineup context is excellent, but Volpe's skill set has yet to produce the results fantasy managers were hoping for. He may still end up with decent counting stats through consistent playing time, but his batting average has been a detriment, particularly in roto leagues.
Shortstop has been a relatively shallow position this season, so fantasy managers may have no choice but to hope Volpe can get things turned around.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Fallers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 27, 2025.
Devin Williams, New York Yankees
1-1, 6.64 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 26.4 percent Strikeout Rate, 20 1/3 IP
After a season with turbulence in the back of their bullpen, the Yankees traded for one of fantasy’s most consistent relievers in Devin Williams. While he has only blown one save, he has looked like a completely different pitcher.
Simply put, nothing seems to be clicking for Williams. The first thing that stands out is his walk issues. He has never been the best at limiting free passes with a 4.40 BB/9 rate, but his current 7.88 BB/9 mark is not sustainable as a high-leverage reliever.
His control issues seem to also be affecting his strikeout rate. Hitters are chasing his pitches much less frequently, waiting for him to find the zone. They haven’t missed these opportunities, as he has allowed a career-high zone contact rate with a career-worst batted-ball profile and a massive .429 BABIP.
It is unreasonable to expect these extreme results to persist long-term, especially for a pitcher with Williams’ strong track record. The issue is that his fantasy value may disappear by the time things rectify themselves.
Aaron Boone just announced “for now” he is taking Devin Williams out of the closer role.
— Michael Kay (@RealMichaelKay) April 27, 2025
He has only seen half of the team’s save opportunities in the last two weeks, and the Yankees announced Sunday that he would be removed from the closer's role, at least temporarily. Fantasy managers should not give up on Williams this early in the season, but they may not have a choice depending on how desperately they need saves.
For the latest bullpen news, be sure to check out RotoBaller's Fantasy Baseball Closer Depth Chart series.
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
3-2, 3.62 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 19.7 percent Strikeout Rate, 32 1/3 IP
Luis Castillo has been a high-floor, often underrated fantasy option throughout his career. His peripherals look ok so far in 2025, but he has been erratic with a 3.62 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 19.7 percent strikeout rate in his first six starts. What should fantasy managers make of this?
Castillo’s batted-ball profile isn’t markedly different from previous seasons, which is a good sign. However, he has made some interesting changes to his pitch mix. He has thrown his fastballs almost 70 percent of the time. His four-seamer is the only pitch that has gotten decent results, so his heavy reliance on his fastballs may be hurting all of his pitches.
It likely hasn't helped that his velocity has been down on all of his pitches. Both his pitch usage decisions and his relatively lower velocity have resulted in a career-low strikeout rate, which is significantly lower than his 26 percent career average.
Castillo has benefited from his hitter-friendly home park, but has gotten punished on the road. His splits have been drastic, with a 1.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home but an 8.68 ERA and 2.46 WHIP on the road.
Castillo's underlying metrics aren't awful, but nothing stands out to suggest his peripherals are unfounded. His 4.27 xERA and 4.35 SIERA are aligned with his performance. This leaves fantasy managers in a difficult position. For now, it is probably safest to start him in home matchups and sit him on the road until he proves otherwise.
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