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FanDuel MLB DFS Lineup Picks (5/11/19): Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice


It's Saturday and that means us baseball fans are treated to a full slate of games. We even get a double-header and we're fortunate not to have too much rain in the forecast. That's all we can ask for and it's exciting to set some lineups after a successful night on Friday.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/11/2019. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.

You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!

 

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Jacob deGrom, NYM vs MIA ($11,300)

Is it possible to fade deGrom in a spot like this? The right-hander is simply one of the best pitchers in the game, as he leads the majors in ERA and WHIP since the beginning of last season. The peripherals are just as impressive, with deGrom recording a 28 percent K rate in that span while posting a FIP south of 3.00. Facing Miami is simply the cherry on top, as they rank dead-last in scoring, xwOBA and xSLG. That's why they're not even projected to reach three runs in this game as a -300 underdog, hitting in a pitcher's park like Citi Field.

Jon Gray, COL vs. SD ($6,500)

This might be the only time all year that you see me recommend a Rockies pitcher at home but there's reason to believe that Gray can destroy this price tag. Vegas really appears to like Gray here, as he enters this matchup as a -160 favorite. While pitching in Coors Field is scary, pitching against the Padres is not. Not only do they rank 22nd in K rate, they also sit 24th in both xBA and xwOBA. Gray always seems to perform well against San Diego too, posting a 2.59 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 16 starts against them, striking out 116 batters across 97.1 innings.

 

FanDuel DFS Infielders

Mark Reynolds: 1B, COL vs SDP ($3,300)

It's rare to see any power hitter at Coors Field below $4,000, let alone at $3,300. What makes him really tough to fade is the fact that he's facing a lefty, as Reynolds posted a 133 wRC+ last season against southpaws and should benefit from hitting in the best hitter's park in the majors. He comes into this matchup rolling too, collecting one homer, one double, four runs scored and six RBI over his last 14 at-bats.

Jonathan Villar: 2B, BAL vs. LAA ($3,700)

Villar has been priced too low on FanDuel all season long and it's hard to understand why. Not only does he bat at the top of the Orioles order, but he's also one of the leaders at his position with 10.6 FanDuel points per game. The reason we really like him here is because he gets to face Matt Harvey, who's posted a 6.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP to match his ugly .381 xwOBA. Not only does Villar hit better from the left side, but it also gives him a much better chance to steal a bag or two too.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 3B, TOR vs. CWS ($2,500)

I really haven't been on the Guerrero bandwagon like most people but this price is becoming hard to fade. This is simply one of the best pure talents in the game, as many experts have him pegged as a .300 hitter with 30-home run potential. That's no surprise when you consider his historic Triple-A numbers and an inevitable hot streak is right around the corner. We'll bet on it starting here, as Guerrero gets to face Ivan Nova, who owns a 7.04 ERA and 1.70 WHIP this season.

Trevor Story: SS, COL vs. SD ($4,800)

This play really doesn't take much explanation. The simple fact is, Story destroys lefties at home. In fact, Story has a 1.027 OPS against southpaws since the beginning of 2017 and a .936 OPS at home in that same span. He's also one of the fastest guys in the league, as his 27 steals last season shows that he can provide through more than just power. The Rockies are projected to score six runs here and it's really no surprise when you consider the fact that Joey Lucchesi has posted a 7.01 ERA and 1.64 WHIP across his last five starts.

Nolan Arenado costs $5,000 but he's in the same boat as Story and is worth buying up if you have the extra cash.

 

FanDuel DFS Outfielders

J.D. Martinez OF, BOS vs. SEA ($4,000)

This price surprises me day-after-day and it's hard to understand why. His peripherals are simply ridiculous, with Martinez posting a .448 xwOBA and a .647 xSLG. Those are simply some of the best indicators in the league and it's clear that he has some positive regression headed his way with his wOBA 83 points lower than his xwOBA and his slugging percentage nearly 200 points lower than his xSLG. That means he's had terrible luck but he's still hitting .309 while providing 11 FanDuel points per game. Keep picking this guy until he gets above $4,500.

Nelson Cruz: OF, MIN vs. DET ($3,900)

Cruz might be my favorite play on the board, as he gets to face a lefty who has only pitched 13.2 innings above High-A. That spells disaster for Gregory Soto, with Cruz posting a .927 career OPS against southpaws. His power hasn't gone anywhere either, hitting five doubles and six homers over his last 18 games while attaining a wOBA just shy of .400 for the year.

Gregory Polanco: OF, PIT vs. STL ($3,500)

Polanco is a personal favorite of mine and using him against right-handers is always a good decision. Since the beginning of 2018, Polanco's OPS against right-handers is just shy of .900. That alone is impressive but he's also got good speed and is a decent bet to steal a bag if he gets on base. Polanco comes into this matchup rolling too, collecting three doubles, two homers and seven RBI over his last five games.

Teoscar Hernandez is just $2,400 on FanDuel and hit a dinger on Friday if you're in need of a cheap bat.

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