RADIO
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
After six gameweeks of enjoyable football, bad officiating and VAR reared their ugly heads last week. Newcastle and West Ham were both wrongly denied goals that would've seen us bag a nice profit. Nottingham Forest didn't help matters by throwing away a 2-0 half-time lead to lose 3-2 to Bournemouth which cost us one of the parlays. Hopefully, our luck turns around this weekend.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 29-31
- Total picks: 25-29-5
- Parlays: 3-8
- ROI: 97.57% (-1.07 units)
Saturday, September 10th, 2022
Chelsea (-121) at Fulham (+340) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 Chelsea
Fulham's impressive start to the season has spluttered a little with two defeats in their last three games. But the losses came at Arsenal and at Tottenham, both by a 2-1 scoreline and they remain unbeaten at home (three games).
Chelsea sacked Head Coach Thomas Tuchel on Wednesday and are poised to appoint Graham Potter to the role before Saturday. They've looked a disjointed mess so far and were incredibly fortunate to beat West Ham last weekend before their surprise midweek defeat at Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League.
Betting pick: Draw not bet - Fulham (+230) 0.5 units
Even if Potter is appointed as Chelsea's new Head Coach before Saturday, he wouldn't have a chance to properly work with the players and know his best team. Chelsea's stuttering start looks set to continue with the home side putting in impressive performances every week and will see this as a chance to beat their local rivals for the first time in 16 years.
Player to watch: Andreas Pereira
While Mitrovic has taken all the plaudits with his six goals, Pereira has impressed for Fulham. His 17-shot-creating actions are the second most on the team and he takes free-kicks and corners so has multiple routes to scoring fantasy points.
Brighton (-123) at Bournemouth (+412) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 0 - 1 Brighton
Bournemouth fought back from 2-0 down at half-time to Nottingham Forest, winning 3-2 for their first win since the opening weekend. They have yet to appoint a replacement manager after sacking Scott Parker but have taken four points from the two games since ousting him.
Brighton looks set to be without a manager should Graham Potter take the Chelsea job. And he'll be leaving them in a fantastic position with the team lying in fourth place in the table following their 5-2 win against Leicester City last Sunday.
Betting pick: Total corners - Under 10 (-105) 1 unit
I'm a bit reluctant to take Brighton to win given the managerial upheaval so will play the corners market. Bournemouth have taken the fewest corners in the league (18) and only more than three corners in two of their six games. Brighton have averaged three corners in their three away games while their opponents have taken just seven in those games.
Player to watch: Alexis Mac Allister
Mac Allister had an eventful game last weekend. He was booked, had a goal disallowed somewhat controversially before scoring a penalty and direct free kick. It's those set-piece duties that give him such a good route to fantasy value.
Aston Villa (+190) at Leicester City (+156) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 1 Aston Villa
Leicester remains bottom following their fifth consecutive defeat of the season. After three losses by one goal, they were comprehensively taken apart by Brighton last week en route to a 5-2 defeat. They've conceded the second most goals but have scored more goals than anyone else in the bottom half of the table.
Aston Villa ended a run of three straight defeats with a come-from-behind 1-1 draw against Manchester City last weekend but are still without a point on the road and have won just once away from home in their last eight games dating back to last season.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Draw (+249) 0.5 units
The game is being dubbed El Sackico with both managers on the hot seat. Games like this are generally edgy affairs and while Aston Villa should be buoyed by their draw against Manchester City last weekend, their away form hasn't been good under Steven Gerrard and I see it playing out as a tense draw.
Player to watch: James Maddison
Jamie Vardy is yet to score this season and James Maddison has carried Leicester's main goal-scoring threat so far. In just five games, he has two goals and an assist while he leads the team in shots taken (13). If Leicester can end their winless streak, Maddison will have likely played a big part in the game.
Wolves (+1001) at Liverpool (-358) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 1 - 0 Wolves
Liverpool were unable to make it three straight wins, being held to a goalless draw against local rivals Everton last weekend. They have only lost once this season and seven of their nine points have come in home games.
Wolves' struggles to score continue, with last week seeing them find the net for only the third time this season. New striker signing Sasa Kalajdzic lasted just 45 minutes on his debut in their 1-0 win against Southampton, suffering a serious knee injury.
Betting pick: Both teams to score/total goals - No & under 2.5 (+223) 0.5 units
While I can see Wolves frustrating Liverpool and possibly taking away a point, I'm really struggling to see them score. Liverpool haven't been great defensively with last week being their second clean sheet of the season and they were soundly beaten 4-1 at Napoli on Wednesday in their first Champions League game of the season. This looks like being a tight game.
Player to watch: Trent Alexander-Arnold
In what I expect to be a low-scoring affair, Alexander-Arnold's delivery from set-pieces and open play could be crucial. Question marks have been raised about him defensively but he has a good chance to secure a clean sheet in what could be a solid points haul for the right back.
Brentford (+210) at Southampton (+139) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Southampton 2 - 2 Brentford
Southampton couldn't build on their home win against Chelsea, losing 1-0 to Wolves last weekend and find themselves in a familiar position of being in the bottom half of the table and without a clean sheet on the season.
Brentford's 5-2 win against Leeds saw them vault into the top half of the table and are now unbeaten their last in three games. They have yet to win on the road but only Manchester City (20) have scored more than Brentford (15) and there has been an average of four goals in their games so far.
Betting pick: Total goals - Over 2.5 (-117) 1 unit
With scores of 4-1 and 3-0 last season, this game was already one penciled in as being higher scoring at the start of the season. These two have just one clean sheet between them so far and have combined to score 22 goals and concede 19. There should be a few goals on Saturday.
Player to watch: James Ward-Prowse
Ivan Toney is the headline act in the game but Southampton captain Ward-Prowse remains one of the best set-piece takers in the game. He's only had five shots this season (two from free-kicks) but does lead the team in passes (233) and shot-creating actions (19).
Tottenham (+690) at Manchester City (-254) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 2 - 1 Tottenham
Manchester City missed the chance to go top of the table with a 1-1 draw at Aston Villa. They got their Champions League campaign off to a winning start with a 4-0 win at Sevilla on Tuesday and Erling Haaland scored yet again, firing in a brace.
Despite sitting in third place, Tottenham haven't really got going this season and labored in their Champions League win at home to Marseille on Wednesday, like they have for most of the season. They've still found ways to win games but this will be their hardest test by far.
Betting pick: Handicap - Tottenham +1.5 (-111) 1 unit
While Tottenham haven't been particularly attractive to watch so far, they're unbeaten and were responsible for inflicting two of Manchester City's three defeats last season, beating them 3-2 and 1-0. I'm not convinced they can repeat that feat but I don't see the home side running away with things.
Player to watch: Harry Kane
Haaland is clearly the best option for any fantasy format but Kane scored twice in this fixture last season and already has five to his name this season. He is likely to be faded more this week than any other game this season so is worth punting on.
Sunday, September 11th, 2022
Everton (+855) at Arsenal (-271) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 - 1 Everton
Arsenal suffered their first defeat of the season last Sunday, losing 3-1 at Manchester United. They were denied an opening goal by a contentious VAR decision and were the better team for most of the game but looked vulnerable against the counter-attack and have now conceded seven goals in their last five games.
Everton are still without a win this season but comes into the game unbeaten in four matches following their fourth consecutive draw against Liverpool last weekend. They look solid defensively, conceding just three goals in their last four games but have only scored four goals in their six games.
Betting pick: Corners handicap - Arsenal -4.0 (+108) 1 unit
Everton are proving to be tough to beat and I wouldn't be shocked if they frustrated Arsenal and took home a point. So, I'm focusing on the corners market. Arsenal haven't conceded more than three corners in a game this season and are averaging 8.33 at home. Everton have conceded nine and sixteen in two of their away games whilst averaging five on the road themselves.
Player to watch: Gabriel Jesus
The Arsenal front four have all clicked so far and Jesus is tied as the team's leading scorer (3), while leading them in assists (3) and being tied for the most shots (20) and shot-creating actions (25). While with Manchester City, Jesus scored eight goals in nine games against Everton (seven starts and two sub appearances).
Newcastle United (+211) at West Ham United (+147) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 1 Newcastle United
West Ham will still be seething after their last-minute equalizer at Chelsea was wrongly ruled out last week. That should have seen them make it three consecutive games without a loss but they have only scored one in each of their last three games.
Newcastle also will be seething after having a probable winning goal wrongly disallowed against Crystal Palace. The goalless draw made it four draws and one defeat in their last five games with just seven goals scored and only six conceded on the season.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (-105) 1 unit
West Ham have struggled for goals so far, scoring just three but conceding just eight. Newcastle have played 25 Premier League games in 2022 and only four times have they conceded more than two (against Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City twice). This looks set to be another closely contested game.
Player to watch: Kieran Trippier
Newcastle have had more shots from free-kicks this season than any other team (5). Four have come from Trippier with one finding the back of the net. Trippier is also the main corner taker for Newcastle so he has plenty of routes to scoring a good amount of fantasy points, even without a clean sheet.
Manchester United (+115) at Crystal Palace (+259) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0 - 1 Manchester United
Palace were fortunate to get a point at Newcastle last weekend and although they have just one win on the season, they have had a tough schedule so far. This will be their fourth game this season against sides finishing in the top-6 last season.
Manchester United made it four consecutive wins by beating Arsenal last Sunday. Despite riding their luck, they were clinical in front of goal and finally look like they have a settled starting XI that is able to compete in games.
Betting pick: Highest scoring half - Second half (-110) 1 unit
Crystal Palace games have seen six first-half goals and ten second-half goals in six games, with the second halves having the same or more goals in each of them. During Manchester United's four-game winning streak, there have been three first-half goals and six second-half goals.
Player to watch: Marcus Rashford
Rashford has now scored three goals in the last four games but is yet to find the back of the net away from home. With Sancho and new signing Antony either side of him, there's plenty of pace that can cause problems to defenses and help Rashford add to his tally.
Monday, September 12th, 2022
Nottingham Forest (+349) at Leeds United (-126) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 2 - 0 Nottingham Forest
Leeds' impressive start to the season has come to a grinding halt with their 5-2 loss at Brentford making it three straight games without a win. They are still unbeaten at home and although they will be without top scorer Rodrigo, Patrick Bamford is healthy and should start this game.
Forest suffered a tough loss at home to Bournemouth, failing to take any points despite leading 2-0 at half-time. That was their third straight loss and they now have the third most goals conceded (14) and tied-third fewest goals scored (4).
Betting pick: Moneyline - Leeds United (-126) 1 unit
Both teams have struggled in the last fortnight and will be keen to end their mini-winless runs. Leeds' unbeaten home record and more cohesive and settled team should be enough to carry them to a victory and even though they are odds on, I still feel there's value in taking the home team to win.
Player to watch: Patrick Bamford
After missing most of last season through injury, Bamford has already missed some time this season as well. But he's healthy again, he should lead the line for Leeds and will want to get his season properly up and running, especially while Rodrigo is sidelined.
Parlays
First half handicap +0.5: Fulham, Bournemouth, Tottenham, Everton and Crystal Palace (+1492) 0.5 units (you can also take 'draw no bet' or 'double chance' in the first half of these games if available)
Both teams to score: Leicester City/Aston Villa, West Ham United/Newcastle United, Southampton/Brentford (+335) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
