Early Round 2024 Fantasy Football Picks With Bust Potential

Which early round fantasy football picks could be busts in 2024? Justin Carter from RotoBaller provides a thorough analysis of what you can expect this season.

05The early rounds of a fantasy football draft are a chance to draft your heavy hitters; the players who can bring your fantasy team directly to glory. While working the waiver wire throughout the season is what ultimately ends up being most responsible for success, you still need a player or two who can deliver big numbers. The easiest way to acquire those players is in your fantasy draft.

But not every early pick winds up working out. Sometimes, the guy you draft doesn't deliver the expected results. Maybe it's because of an injury, but often it's because you ignored some important warning signs. Let's make sure we avoid making those kind of mistakes in 2024.

Below are four players going in the top 50 in most fantasy drafts who could wind up being busts in 2024. The ADP data referenced comes courtesy of FantasyPros.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

ADP: 10, WR7

While I expect another strong season from Puka Nacua, I'm not sure he's a safe pick in the first round of fantasy drafts. Sure, as a rookie he was spectacular, catching 105 passes for 1,486 yards, but that came with the Rams' No. 1 receiver in Cooper Kupp missing five games. A healthy Kupp will demand targets and that could wind up leading to less production out of Nacua than we saw in 2023.

Early fades at current fantasy ADP:

-Puka Nacua: 100 targets vs. 99 for Kupp when both healthy
-Davante Adams: QB room, age, declining efficiency
-Zamir White: Prefer Montgomery/Conner at cost
-Kenneth Walker: O-line + scoring + volume concerns
-CJ Stroud: FANTASY, not real life

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 18, 2024

It's also just tough for a player to repeat what Nacua did as a rookie. Only two wide receivers topped 1,400 yards in each of the last two seasons. Those players were Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. I'm not saying Nacua can't be as good as those two, but he's also just not really the same kind of receiver as those two players, who excel by having a huge physical advantage. For Brown, it's his size. For Hill, his speed.

The return of Kupp while playing with an aging quarterback mixed with just how tough it can be to replicate his rookie success makes Nacua a risky early pick.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

ADP: 12, RB5

Any time a running back changes teams, fantasy managers should be cautious, especially when that running back is entering his seventh NFL season.

Mailbag: What are the chances Saquon Barkley could be a bust for the Eagles? https://t.co/TH863rm4ez

— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) July 18, 2024

Saquon Barkley had a solid 2023 campaign for the Giants, averaging 68.7 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards per game. He found the end zone 10 times and it's impressive Barkley managed that while playing in the dysfunction that was the New York Giants last season.

But here's the thing. Of the top-12 running backs last season in total PPR points, just two of them played for teams that weren't their original NFL team. Sure, that includes Christian McCaffrey, the overall RB1 in 2023, but McCaffrey might just be a special case. The other player was Raheem Mostert, who bounced between five teams in his first two seasons before settling in San Francisco. After five full seasons with the 49ers, Mostert moved to Miami, which happened to be coached by a former 49ers assistant.

The point is, the running back position is a young man's game, dominated by players in the early stages of their careers. Players who end up moving elsewhere don't seem to find much success these days. That makes it risky to pick Barkley in the first round.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans

ADP: 23, WR12

Nico Collins was on fire last season, catching 80 balls for 1,297 yards. If nothing changed between last season and now, he'd easily be a top-10 wide receiver heading into 2024 as far as fantasy is concerned.

With the WR room the #texans have put together with Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and then the depth that is provided by Robert Woods and Noah Brown. It's really solid. I'm excited to watch John Metchie during camp. He really turned some heads in the spring I'm told. If…

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) July 18, 2024

But something did change, as the Texans added Stefon Diggs to the roster. Diggs might not be as dominant as he was in years past, but he still caught 107 passes for 1,183 yards for the Bills in 2023. At worst, he'll be an elite No. 2 receiver in Houston. At best, Diggs and Collins are the 1A and 1B.

That alone complicates things for Collins, but it gets even more complicated when you consider that a healthy Tank Dell will command targets as well. As a rookie, Dell played 11 games and saw his season end early with a fractured fibula. In those 11 games, Dell caught 47 passes for 709 yards and seven touchdowns. There's a lot of competition for targets down in Houston this year, making it hard to guarantee that Collins will return value and finish as a WR1 like he's being drafted as.

DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears

ADP: 33, WR18

2023 was a huge year for DJ Moore. Despite quarterback uncertainty, Moore excelled when Justin Fields was in the lineup and finished the season with 96 receptions for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns. If Fields hadn't missed time, there's a very good chance Moore would have been a 1,500-yard receiver.

However, the Bears enter 2024 with virtually a whole new offense around Moore. The quarterback is different, as the team drafted Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick. The receivers around him are different as the team added Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze this offseason. Moore is no longer playing on a team with the huge power gap behind him that existed in 2023.

While he should be the No. 1 receiver and has a high ceiling because of his skill set, the presence of Allen and Odunze plus the fact that we don't yet know what Williams will look like brings a lot of uncertainty into the picture. Moore could be a great value at his ADP, but he could also be a huge bust if Williams struggles to adjust to the NFL while Allen and Odunze command targets.

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