2025 Fantasy Football Busts: Overvauled AFC Draft Avoids

March 18, 2025

John breaks down the most overvalued AFC players that you should avoid drafting in fantasy football in 2025. Which AFC players will be busts in fantasy football in 2025?

There are 16 teams in the AFC (obviously) meaning that there are plenty of players in that conference that will bust, obviously. Identifying them isn't easy, of course, but since it's my job to research fantasy football as much as possible and deliver you the best possible content, I'll try anyway.

I want you to win your fantasy football leagues, so I'll be giving you the advice I follow myself. And I personally won't be drafting any of these players in any of my leagues this season. The details of their situations are just too concerning for me to stomach having them on my rosters.

We'll cover three players today. All of them are receivers, as it seems that the AFC's running backs and tight ends are more appropriately valued in redraft this season. This article will apply to both Dynasty startups and redraft leagues, though.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Hill isn't a big-bodied WR who's capable of winning contested catches or jump balls. He doesn't win with elite route-running nuance, isn't adept at shaking defenders with slick moves, and doesn't have a big catch radius or especially good hands. Instead, he wins with pure explosiveness and speed, creating massive separation downfield and burning defenders with raw athleticism.

TYREEK HILL 78 YARD TD 🔥

THAT’S 14.8 POINTS ON ONE PLAY‼️ pic.twitter.com/GT7h7dReDl

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 3, 2023

This kind of elite explosiveness fades with age, and quickly. Hill's birthday is March 1, so he will play the 2025 season well into his age-31 year. He doesn't have much to fall back on when his league-best burst fades, for the reasons listed above. Most of his highlights showcase him winning with generational athleticism, and from what we saw in 2024, that's about the only way he can win.

Tyreek Hill has been hurt since camp playing through a bad wrist injury but will still play his most snaps since 2021

He’s having a down year by his standards but there’s something to be said for grinding it out when others (on the team and around the league) haven’t#GoFins

— Ryan Smith (@PFF_RyanSmith) December 29, 2024

The wrist injury could explain part of it, but it's not like he had an abnormally high number of drops. Instead, he simply didn't separate as well as he did in 2023. He did have a foot injury that he dealt with for part of the season, so that could explain some of his dip in production.

But he's valued at WR11 right now, and he's at the age where most WRs experience a sharp dip in production. 31-32 year old receivers are not someone you want to take a bet on, most of the time. Against highly athletic cornerbacks, he'll probably struggle next season, and the low-scoring, single-digit PPR point games can lose you your week if they come from a player you spent an early pick on.

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers are desperately in need of a second (or first) option at wide receiver. Pickens was seen as a breakout candidate after his 2023 season but finished worse in every category. He missed three games, so that explains most of it, but he was still just the WR40 in PPR points per game. That's a WR4.

He didn't have any target competition, for the most part. Tight end Pat Freiermuth and WR Calvin Austin III are not premium passing-game options. He's also in a very run-heavy offense commandeered by offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Pittsburgh ran the ball at the 5th-highest rate in the league in 2024.

Must see: Required viewing for George Pickens apologists. Drops. Arguing with Steelers fans. Needing multiple teammates to talk to him about getting his head in the game. Not a WR1. Can’t pay him. Sorry. pic.twitter.com/bKBYswgldr

— Andrew Fillipponi (@ThePoniExpress) January 5, 2025

By all means, he seems completely insane as a human, and that actually hurts his game. When things aren't going his way, he can play with little effort at times and has problems with holding on to the ball through contact and with his hands. The circus catches he makes are impressive, of course, but you have to consider the bad with the good.

Pickens probably won't ever reach his full potential, talented as he is. And last season was a best-case scenario for him in the offense he was in. Yet he's ranked as the WR23 in FantasyPros 2025 draft rankings. He's also considering holding out for his next contract, which should come as a surprise to absolutely no one, even though he's played just three seasons in the league so far.

Yikes: George Pickens had three drops so far tonight...pic.twitter.com/MmpwkB0siQ

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 5, 2025

Wherever his issues stem from, they probably aren't going anywhere. Finishing as the WR23 in points per game seems like his ceiling unless he goes to a different team that's more pass-happy. He won't fix the deficiencies in his game because he thinks he's flawless, or at least that's how he's always behaved from what we can see. Avoid him. There might not be any receivers on this team worth picking at their ADP in fantasy football this season.

EDIT: The Pittsburgh Steelers traded for former Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf. This is terrible news for Pickens, who will probably have multiple meltdowns in 2025, as he'll no longer be the clear WR1. 

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens

I will admit, I'm splitting hairs just a bit by including Flowers here. His ranking really isn't horrible -- there are just so many players that you should pick above him. He's ranked as the WR20 by Fantasy Pros and finished as the WR36 in PPR points per game but he did play 17 contests, so health isn't a big concern like it is with some other players.

Flowers caught three less passes in 2024 than in 2023, though he finished with 1,059 more yards. Still, he had two fewer touchdowns (one less rushing and one less receiving). He did log eight more targets. The touchdown upside is what seems very limited here. He only caught four receiving touchdowns in 2024. And his eight extra targets are largely because he played in one extra game.

day 364 of posting zay flowers pic.twitter.com/N8ZFNphgFN

— noah✞ (@zayflowersgoat) February 10, 2025

He's a solid receiver and occupies a decent role in the Ravens' passing offense. But quarterback Lamar Jackson spreads the ball around plenty. Jackson threw just 24 touchdown passes in 2023 and nearly doubled that number by throwing 41 in 2024, yet somehow Flowers ended up with fewer TD receptions. That doesn't make a lot of sense.

Of the TDs the almost-but-not-quite-MVP threw, 11 went to TE Mark Andrews, nine to WR Rashod Bateman, six to tight end Isaiah Likely, four to Flowers, of course, five to the running backs combined, and one each to three other pass-catchers. What part of that pie Flowers will have moving forward isn't yet known, but he's not a big-bodied red zone threat, so that doesn't help.

And Bateman appears to have the higher ceiling fantasy-wise if he can continue to put together healthy seasons. His early career was marred by injury. But the three-TE rotation, Bateman, running back Justice Hill, and others help offensive coordinator Todd Monken spread the ball around heavily. He'll be back with the team in 2025. And his offense is run-first and run-centric as well, so that doesn't help.

Derrick Henry. 44 YDS. TD. WOW. ⚔️

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/W1NbVzsc0Y

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 12, 2025

It makes perfect sense for them to do this since they have a future Hall of Famer at both running back and quarterback and that QB happens to be the best-rushing signal-caller in the history of the league. And another underreported downside to Flowers is that when the Ravens are highly successful at running the ball, they're content with passing much less.

If Baltimore can shore up their defense, we could see an even more run-heavy offense that chews the clock as much as possible so their defense can rest and cuts back on risky throws. It's a formula that worked for the Philadelphia Eagles swimmingly this season, and I'm sure the Ravens would love to follow it.

Their pass defense wasn't great last season. If that improves, Flowers will likely disappoint.

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