Early 2021 Sleepers and Draft Targets - Wide Receiver

March 4, 2021

Bruce Matson looks at fantasy football sleepers at the wide receiver position to target in 2021 drafts.

It’s early in the game. Most fantasy gamers haven’t thought about drafting their redraft teams yet. This is understandable since we haven’t even had the NFL Draft yet. Finding late-round wide receivers who could potentially provide unexpected production in fantasy is a problem that isn’t considered a pressing concern right now for a lot of fantasy managers.

It’s never too early to research for drafts. Some of these players mentioned could see a considerable rise in value in the next few months. A lot can change between now and the start of the NFL season. Depth charts change, players move teams, and there’s a lot of unexpected volatility in the off-season.

The wide receiver position is deep with talent. There are top-shelf fantasy assets and there will players in the middle to late rounds who can provide value off and on throughout the season. Discovering the gems in the later rounds or potentially the waiver wire could mean the difference between making the playoffs and winning your league.

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears

During his rookie season last year, Mooney managed to reel in 61 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns. The way he won on the field might be the most encouraging part of his fantasy football profile. The former Tulane star wins with deep speed and smooth route running. He’s a technician when it comes to converting contested catches. With him being a fifth-round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, many fantasy managers discounted his ability to produce. However, he’s more than talented enough to shred defenses on the NFL level.

Allen Robinson will be a free agent this offseason. He’s more than likely not going to be back in Chicago. Although it’s an easy bet that the team will bring in another pass-catcher, Mooney still has the chance to be the key contributor in the passing game for the Bears.

Mooney finished the 2020 season second on the team with a 17 percent target share. The Bears took advantage of his deep speed which is reflected in his 11.6 air yards per target. He also produced 249 yards after the catch, equating to 2.54 yards after the catch per reception.

Even if the Bears bring in a talented receiving option this offseason, the fact that Mooney is a deep ball specialist means he will be a high-upside volatile receiving option in fantasy at the very least. In a supplemental role, the air yards combined with a 15-20 percent target share could be enough to make him a very productive flex option for your fantasy team.

Denzel Mims, New York Jets

Mims flashed some of his talents last year. The former Baylor Bear caught 23 passes for 357 yards in nine games. Injuries slowed him down and were one of many reasons why he didn’t break out during his rookie campaign.

Courtesy of RotoViz

The workload was very promising for Mims. He saw a 19 percent target share while seeing 14.5 air yards per attempt. He also owned an impressive 29 percent of the team’s air yards during his nine-game stint. When extrapolated over a 16-game season, this type of workload could easily translate to fantasy-relevant production. If things click for Mims in 2021, we could see a high-end WR2 in the making.

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals

Kirk is currently falling to the 11^th round of fantasy drafts with a 124.7 ADP. DeAndre Hopkins’ dominance interfered with his ability to establish a large enough foothold in the passing offense. He still averaged 11.8 air yards per target while seeing a 16 percent target share.

He’s currently falling to the double-digit rounds of drafts. Injuries have impacted his ability to stay on the field. However, he does have the potential to produce. The Cardinals have one of the fastest-paced offenses in the league, averaging 24 seconds between snaps while in a neutral game script, which was third-most in the league in 2020. A fast-paced offense is more likely to churn out fantasy points.

The passing volumes have been lower than projected. In 2020, the Cardinals ran the ball on 44 percent of their snaps which decreased the overall volume in the passing game, making it harder for the ancillary pass-catchers like Kirk to maintain consistent fantasy production. However, this is not sustainable for the long-term as the NFL is trending into more of a passing league. The passing volumes for the offense should eventually increase through the years.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Samuel was out of sight and out of mind during the majority of the 2020 season. He began the season with a broken foot and then ended the season with hamstring issues. He was only able to string together four games of fantasy-relevant production.

Fantasy managers tend to hold recency bias close to their hearts. Samuel is still a very talented player and showed he was more than capable of producing while healthy last season. He is currently falling to the seventh round of fantasy drafts, making him an instant value since he has the potential to deliver high-end WR2 results.

Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles selected Reagor in the first round of last year’s draft. He was a highly anticipated wide receiver prospect who had his rookie season derailed by injuries and poor quarterback play. Philadelphia’s offense was a mess during most of the season.

What makes him an intriguing play in fantasy is his deep speed. The Eagles instantly used him as a deep threat last year. He didn’t receive many opportunities to showcase his talents. Plus, the offense struggled to target him deep downfield. He averaged a lucrative 12.9 air yards per target and was second on the team with 695 air yards while playing in just 11 games.

Air yards do not always equate to instant fantasy success. Deeper targets will make him a threat to score a large amount on one single shot. Usually, big-play threats are volatile fantasy producers. Considering we are paying a double-digit round price tag in drafts, Reagor is well worth the risk.

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