DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Golf Advice (2023)

Max Homa captured his sixth career PGA Tour title after firing a final round six-under 66, beating the field scoring average by 8.15 strokes at the Farmers Insurance Open.

From a viewing perspective, it was one of the best final rounds I have seen from start to finish from the now 32-year-old golfer out of Burbank, California, and while it probably should have already been plastered into people's minds when we consider he has won more tournaments on tour over the past 25 months than any golfer in the world, the victory will help to propel Homa into elite status when talking about some of the most significant events of 2023.

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That is a statement we didn't know we would hear for years after watching the American underachieve in grand slam contests, failing to post a single top 10 in 13 tries, but with the U.S. Open at a track he found success at in college, and the game trending in the right direction, the sky does appear to be the limit for a player that has been knocking on the door when it comes to career-altering excellence for the past two years.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

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TeeOffSports membership

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Field

Field Size: 156 Players
Cut: Top 60 and Ties (Players Will Rotate Between Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club Over The First Three Days)
Top 25 Entrants: 3

 

Last Five Winners Of Pebble Beach

2022	Tom Hoge	-19
2021	Daniel Berger	-18
2020	Nick Taylor	-19
2019	Phil Mickelson	-19
2018	Ted Potter Jr.	-17

 

Expected Cut-Line

2022	-6
2021	-5
2020	-6
2019	-5
2018	-5

It has been a consistent output of five or six under yearly.

 

Pebble Beach Pro-Am

6,816 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Poa

We are now seeing some ramifications of the newly-minted elevated schedule, as the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has fallen into tough times for the week with its questionable field for this year's event.

One-hundred and fifty-six players will be teeing it up for one of the most picturesque outings we get in 2023, but you know the event is trending in the wrong direction when Jason Day, who has been a yearly top 10 fixture and someone that needs points to qualify for the majors this season, doesn't want to make the trip out to an event he has dominated in the past.

None of that is to suggest we don't have star-studded participants, which we can see with the likes of Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth and Matthew Fitzpatrick, but the field only generates those three men as top 25 golfers in the OWGR system, and the bottom falls out just as quickly, with only eight additional players ranked inside the top 65.

I mean, seriously. Why did Hayden Buckley (103rd) not even participate in this tournament? I want to understand the decision-making process for options that fit the venue perfectly that didn't play, but I guess all we can do now is try to handicap the proceedings the best we can for this three-course setup with flawed strokes gained data and appreciate all the cheating we will see from Bill Murray throughout the Pro-Am. 

 

Let's Meet The Three Courses

Contestant Number One - Pebble Beach - 6,816 Yards - Par 72

With greens that measure a tour low 3,500 square feet, Pebble Beach will be where we want to do the brunt of our research. Most of the par-fours at all three venues stretch between 350-450 yards (I rounded a few holes up or down) but consider it one of the reasons we get an alarmingly high 23 percent of second shots that occur from 100-125 yards. That total is 10.4% above the tour average, but I don't want anyone automatically assuming it is the sole reason for the second-shot parallels. Sure, it partially plays into the equation, but a quarter of the approaches coming within a 25-yard range means the venue must be forcing layups on most holes that require everyone to land in the same area. That is an important idea to keep in mind because it means pertinent proximity numbers will be highly critical for all golfers since you can't bypass the field with your distance, and all of this, when added together, gives us a 267-yard average for players off the tee - one of the lowest totals we will see at any track all year. Please keep in mind that the Sunday finish will take place at this course.

Contestant Number Two - Spyglass Hill - 7,035 Yards - Par 72

We lose much of the available data once we get outside Pebble Beach, but Spyglass Hill is the longest and most difficult of the three stops in neutral conditions. When gusts increase, the tree-lined protection makes it marginally more straightforward than the primary track, but these courses are more complex than you would think for an event made for amateurs. The weather can quickly wreak havoc on the field, and while the greens possess a softness that allows easier second shots, they still have some zip to them for the putts.

Contestant Number Three - Monterey Peninsula - 6,958 Yards - Par 71

Monterey Peninsula is statistically the easiest of the three, with two par-fives producing over a 10% eagle rate combined. Eight of the holes will yield over a 20% birdie or better percentage, and even if calm settings are what you are hoping for when attacking that layout, the course should be in play during the first three days when constructing 'Showdown' lineups. 

 

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Pebble Beach	PGA Average
Driving Distance	267	283
Driving Accuracy	71%	61%
GIR Percentage	63%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	56%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.50	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

• Weighted Tee-To-Green (25%)

 

• Strokes Gained Total: Poa (15%)

 

• Strokes Gained Total: Wind (7.5%)

 

• Stokes Gained Total: Short Courses With Easy-To-Hit Fairways (12.5%)

 

• Strokes Gained Total: Last 24 Rounds (10%)

 

• Weighted Scoring (20%)
  

 

• Betting Odds (10%)
  

 

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories:

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Early thoughts on the group: We have a strong group up top in the $10,000 section this week for how watered down the field can be in other spots, but I seem more inclined to want to go to Matthew Fitzpatrick or Viktor Hovland over Jordan Spieth and Tom Hoge for a few reasons. For starters, Spieth and Hoge are getting massive ownership baked into their projections because of the top-notch course history (something you should view as noteworthy), but perhaps more importantly than that, my model tends to believe the slightly better win equity returns currently come from Hovland and Fitzpatrick.

Viktor Hovland ($10,300) - The only two players that ranked inside the top 10 of all seven categories of my model were Viktor Hovland and Matthew Fitzpatrick. If ownership ends up running wild, we can reassess the situation and see if we can find a varying path to take, but it seems likely to me that Spieth and Hoge close as the two highest-owned players in this range (or at least very similarly to Hovland/Fitzpatrick). Hovland has a clean profile that can excel in all areas of this tournament, and the metrics are incredibly enticing.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,100) - What world are we living in that Matthew Fitzpatrick is my number-one-ranked golfer? The ongoing joke about him grading poorly for me every week is now a thing of the past, and the Englishman leads the field in first-place grades after slotting in at the top spot in three of the seven categories. Sure, the betting tab is one that the bookmakers assessed as being proper, but when his worst metric places him seventh in the field, we can't help but feel encouraged about his chances of grabbing his first non-major on American soil.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Early thoughts on the group: 

Seamus Power ($9,800) - I am in a position where I would rather play both Seamus Power and Maverick McNealy over Tom Hoge. The metrics are acceptable for Hoge, but the floor has too many question marks for the current ownership projection, and while Power has been boom-or-bust himself, I could make a strong argument that a reduction in popularity is well-worth the squeeze since my numbers can quickly turn the Irishman into a top-four player on this board.

Maverick McNealy ($9,600) - The hometown narrative and past success at Pebble Beach will heighten any early returns we get for Maverick McNealy, although it is hard to find a problem with the price tag. The American has been pumping out top 35 finishes for the past few months, and his mixture of safety and upside makes this a classic case of "good chalk" being on full display.

Justin Rose ($9,500) - I was a little disappointed to see the price point for Justin Rose in the betting market because of my model's perceived win equity, but let's hope the price bump for him into the $9,000s removes some DFS gamers from the mix because of his volatile nature he has exuded over the last few seasons. Rose ranks third this week in strokes gained at courses with easy-to-hit fairways, and his Poa play has always been one of the main areas he excels from a production standpoint. 

Joel Dahmen ($9,000) - I don't buy the early ownership projection. I wouldn't be shocked to see this double by Thursday morning, but let's project everything how it currently stands, making Joel Dahmen an interesting leverage choice in this range. The 35-year-old leads the field in strokes gained total over his past 24 rounds.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Taylor Penderith ($8,900) - It feels like a nice contrarian spot to grab Taylor Pendrith -- a golfer who was everyone's darling of the DFS space a few months ago. Sure, a less-than-driver course isn't perfect for a player that can take advantage of his length, but it is a similar mentality that we have seen in the past with an option like Cameron Davis. Pendrith has posted a made cut at Pebble during his one attempt, and the recent form is providing an excellent upside option at sub-five percent.

Ben Griffin ($8,600) - Is Ben Griffin as good as his early results on tour? Maybe not. But it would take a massive ownership projection for me to get swayed away from playing him since the form is as stout as anyone teeing it up this week.

Trey Mullinax ($8,100) - I'll trust course history and current form over stats when everyone pivots to the numerical side of the equation. Mullinax has been impressive for the last six months, and the back-to-back top-30 finishes at Pebble should tell a nice story of a golfer who has a built-in floor that isn't being equated to his popularity.

Erik Van Rooyen ($8,000) - Playing Erik Van Rooyen will never leave you without that overhanging feeling of trepidation, but this should be considered a quality price for a golfer that has shown past success at courses with easy-to-hit fairways.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

The list removes all players outside the top 60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside, and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.

Brendon Todd ($7,900) - Part of me is starting to believe Brendon Todd might win this event, so if you are telling me we can grab the 37-year-old in the $7,000 section at sub-15 percent ownership, I am sold on trying to bet on his third-place mark for weighted tee-to-green -- a tally that places him 64 spots higher than his baseline projection at a random course.

Scott Stallings ($7,900) - I'll give another freebie in this article that I haven't released anywhere else. If you have access to Bet365, I like the 60/1 price you can find on Scott Stallings to win this event.

Nick Hardy ($7,700) - Four made cuts in his past five starts, and the irons are trending in the direction to match his driver.

Will Gordon ($7,600) - The recent form has gone south, but the overarching answer here is that Gordon is an exceptional statistical tee-to-green talent that has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career.

Greyson Sigg ($7,300) - The price is too low for the combination of safety and upside that Greyson Sigg brings to the table.

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

All the players below were inside the top 60 in one of the two iterations of my sheet and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run.

We will condense this list further as the week progresses, but we have a handful of interesting dart throws from those 10+ names.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

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Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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